January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[ShawniganLake]

Has anyone checked on Phil.  I imagine he’s on a plane to go measure the EAMT in person.  Clearly the models aren’t depositing enough momentum in the NAM. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Um

hahhaa what in the hell... is this even thermodynamically possible???

obviously a warm outlier throw it out

[HuskyMaestro]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Um

Drunkle at 3 AM really having a rough night after work, huh.. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Final snow totals lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

Save this loop! 6z GEFS full run 500mb height anomaly

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow this is the mean? LOL

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow GEFS Day 8 high temp PDX 17!

[Cloud]

Never thought a run like this is even possible for us. How??

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snow totals on GFS ensemble so far.

[Meatyorologist]

-30F in Portland would in practice kill thousands of people. This is truly, to the word, an apocalyptic GFS run.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow GEFS Day 8 high temp PDX 17!

I'm sorry, is Yellowstone going to erupt this weekend and only the GFS knows about it? What the actual **** is going on?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This smacks us in 6-7 days...

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

-30F in Portland would in practice kill thousands of people. This is truly, to the word, an apocalyptic GFS run.

Yeah if anything even remotely close to that solution continues to show up, I am unironically going to purchase extra survival blankets and stuff on Amazon this weekend before there's a rush on anything. If/when the power goes out, we would be in serious trouble.

[Doinko]

I didn't even know the GFS could show things getting that cold

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow GEFS Day 8 high temp PDX 17!

 

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snow totals on GFS ensemble so far.

Ok something’s up. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Well the runs today can only go one way. So let’s not all freak out when they warm. They have to right?

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

-30F in Portland would in practice kill thousands of people. This is truly, to the word, an apocalyptic GFS run.

At face value that run features conditions that would collapse roofs, kill anyone unfortunate enough to be exposed for any significant length of time, destroy infrastructure and devastate crops, and create a nightmare flooding scenario for whenever it does decide to melt. You're on the money about apocalyptic

[RayRay]

What if this surpasses 1950/1969??

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS 850s PDX mean temp down to -12.3c Large cluster of members -12c to -18c. Few warm members. Moses Lake -22.1c cluster of members -22c to -26c. WHAT?!

[Christensen87]

I’m speechless. This is what we all have been waiting for. Here we go. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

At face value that run features conditions that would collapse roofs, kill anyone unfortunate enough to be exposed for any significant length of time, destroy infrastructure and devastate crops, and create a nightmare flooding scenario for whenever it does decide to melt. You're on the money about apocalyptic

Fully expect the great Cascadia Quake to happen right off the Oregon Coast once this happens too. With widespread blowing snow.

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GEFS 850s PDX mean temp down to -12.3c Large cluster of members -12c to -18c. Few warm members. Moses Lake -22.1c cluster of members -22c to -26c. WHAT?!

Bro what the op was an avg member?? What in the world

[RayRay]

is this how the apocalypse starts?

[Cloud]

If this continues next couple days the NWS had better take a serious look at this. This has the potential for them to fail fantastically if they don’t play their cards right in relaying the information. Not trying to be dramatic, could be real serious. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

My instinct is thatGFS GEFS is going to look really silly at the end of this but the fact that we have had multiple wtf euro runs idk

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Surface Temps PDX. Coldest High/Low: 17/10. Check out how many ensemble members are colder than the mean temp though suggesting there is room for temperatures to be even colder.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

-30F in Portland would in practice kill thousands of people. This is truly, to the word, an apocalyptic GFS run.

It’s not like we weren’t warned. Dennis Quaid knew. 
 

 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

At face value that run features conditions that would collapse roofs, kill anyone unfortunate enough to be exposed for any significant length of time, destroy infrastructure and devastate crops, and create a nightmare flooding scenario for whenever it does decide to melt. You're on the money about apocalyptic

Fortunately this is completely impossible, even with four feet of snow. There's simply too much antecedent moisture in the biosphere. This is the fault of some dumb overcompensation for snowcover in the GFS' architecture.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is this going to be a reverse Jun 2021 combined with a wine dine 1969?

[DeepFriedEgg]

Next few GEFS runs will be very telling. This could get taken away just as quickly as it appeared

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is this going to be a reverse Jun 2021 combined with a wine dine 1969?

I f*ckin hope so. Revenge baby!

[HuskyMaestro]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Final snow totals lol.

I don’t know how to pull up old posts, but on Christmas Eve, I wished for everyone to be blessed with the pepto this winter and have them verify.. but didn’t expect anything close to this! LOL!

[DeepFriedEgg]

Someone should check on Jim after he sees these runs

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Fully expect the great Cascadia Quake to happen right off the Oregon Coast once this happens too. With widespread blowing snow.

That's actually terrifying to think about. If the 06z happened at face value and the Cascadia quake happened on the 17th or 18th, right after the 4-5ft of snow and before the temps plunge to -30F, hundreds of thousands if not millions of people could die. The extra weight of snow on roofs would collapse more buildings than otherwise would have in the quake, and power would surely be out to the entire region for weeks or months afterward so countless people would be freezing to death in their homes. Thank god none of that will happen, lol.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is the average...

[The Blob]

Well if it dumps like it looks like right now, I'll be sweeping the roof to keep the weight off.

[SpaceRace22]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fortunately this is completely impossible, even with four feet of snow. There's simply too much antecedent moisture in the biosphere. This is the fault of some dumb overcompensation for snowcover in the GFS' architecture.

While I fully agree with you that obviously something just straight borked in the GFS here and this run is clearly a straight up calculation error... this is also exactly what people were saying in June 2021 when the models started showing 120 degrees in Portland. Without a doubt this run will be the most extreme solution we see on this event and things will come back to reality in the 12z runs, but *if* they somehow don't (they will tho)... it might not be wise to 100% discount it as a complete impossibility.

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

That's actually terrifying to think about. If the 06z happened at face value and the Cascadia quake happened on the 17th or 18th, right after the 4-5ft of snow and before the temps plunge to -30F, hundreds of thousands if not millions of people could die. The extra weight of snow on roofs would collapse more buildings than otherwise would have in the quake, and power would surely be out to the entire region for weeks or months afterward so countless people would be freezing to death in their homes. Thank god none of that will happen, lol.

I just ope it takes out the trees I don't want on my property anymore.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

While I fully agree with you that obviously something just straight borked in the GFS here and this run is clearly a straight up calculation error... this is also exactly what people were saying in June 2021 when the models started showing 120 degrees in Portland. Without a doubt this run will be the most extreme solution we see on this event and things will come back to reality in the 12z runs, but *if* they somehow don't... it might not be wise to 100% discount it as a complete impossibility.

It basically happened in Eugene/Springfield in 1969. Not quite as cold but it could've been.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is the average...

Can you show me just the Day 7 totals? Please.