January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, Prairiedog said:

there's that line somewhere from SE Portland, up Sunnyside to the Boring area that stays locked in.  South of there towards Carver, east to Estacada and point south suck.  Decent easterlies run along Springwater and keep the north side cold.  South of there less than a mile is radically warmer and less east wind influence.  Even at 1,200ft elevation at the the end of Springwater (Springwater community) gets much less snow than 205 north of Sunnyside.  Microclimates rule. 

There are some places over here in the Deschutes river and Crooked river canyons where it almost takes an act of god to have frozen precip.

[SpaceRace22]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been pretty intrigued by the Graph Cast model.  Today's 12z was the coldest yet, and it actually has the cold being reinforced late in the run.  Before last night's run it had been showing solidly chilly on every run, but not truly cold.  Every run on that model has been good to excellent this week with no exceptions.

I saw a study on GraphCast's accuracy, and within the 5 day range it's apparently superior to every traditional model we have. Outside of 5 days, the Euro and GFS are still better. So this is definitely the time frame where you want to see GraphCast start to turn colder. Encouraging sign!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

there's that line somewhere from SE Portland, up Sunnyside to the Boring area that stays locked in.  South of there towards Carver, east to Estacada and point south suck.  Decent easterlies run along Springwater and keep the north side cold.  South of there less than a mile is radically warmer and less east wind influence.  Even at 1,200ft elevation at the the end of Springwater (Springwater community) gets much less snow than 205 north of Sunnyside.  Microclimates rule. 

I really can’t imagine they get less snow at 1200’ unless you are talking about exclusively during overrunning events. If so then absolutely. I mixed out before Salem back in February 2014.

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably not in Eugene, small market, less hype. Their newscasts are real snoozers and pretty amateur. 

We've had some great meteorologists over the years. Jon Fischer, Joseph Calbreath. It's just that the local stations have been sold out to the national corporations like Sinclair. Pretty much none of them understand the various local microclimates and they all just use Eugene as a stepping stone. Sucks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@TigerWoodsLibido word on the street is your wife found you asleep at your desk. You don’t think she’s gonna figure out what’s up?!

[Phishy Wx]

lol local media just now on the news  "you might be looking at your phone app and its saying -48 or 10' of snow or something crazy, ITS NOT GOING TO BE THAT BAD"

"those apps they can get you".  "some one asked me today in the grocery store about it, in fact someone asked me while walking into the station today". "we are getting a MODIFIED taste of what they're getting to the east of here I told them"

 

Lol, phone apps seem to be the media biggest nightmare out there

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

lol local media just now on the news  "you might be looking at your phone app and its saying -48 or 10' or snow or something crazy, ITS NOT GOING TO BE THAT BAD"

"those apps they can get you".  "some one asked me today in the grocery store about it, in fact someone asked me while walking into the station today". "we are getting a MODIFIED taste of what they're getting to the east of here I told them"

 

Lol, phone apps seem to be the media biggest nightmare out there

I highly doubt there are any major phone apps showing -48 degrees right now, even in Spokane.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol local media just now on the news  "you might be looking at your phone app and its saying -48 or 10' or snow or something crazy, ITS NOT GOING TO BE THAT BAD"

"those apps they can get you".  "some one asked me today in the grocery store about it, in fact someone asked me while walking into the station today". "we are getting a MODIFIED taste of what they're getting to the east of here I told them"

 

Lol, phone apps seem to be the media biggest nightmare out there

It’s a shock nobody has tried to fix the phone weather apps. Where do they get the data from anyways?

[HuskyMaestro]

Profile pic change as we head closer and closer It was either this or a wendigo.. though the latter might've been better with the temperatures we may see

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I highly doubt there are any major phone apps showing -48 degrees right now, even in Spokane.

I'm sure she was exaggerating to make a point

[PrideOfPrineville]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm sure she was exaggerating to make a point

Mark Nelsen did have some good context on that map where everyone was thinking PDX would be -27.  

It was an anomaly map.  Still impressive but that would put them in the upper teens.  Those maps shouldn't be posted to the masses for sure.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, PrideOfPrineville said:

Mark Nelsen did have some good context on that map where everyone was thinking PDX would be -27.  

It was an anomaly map.  Still impressive but that would put them in the upper teens.  Those maps shouldn't be posted to the masses for sure.

Ok but then right after he posted that, the 06z GFS made a map that shows PDX actually hitting -27F, lol

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Ok but then right after he posted that, the 06z GFS made a map that shows PDX actually hitting -27F, lol

That one shouldn't be posted for the masses either, lol.  Especially not at hr 384.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, PrideOfPrineville said:

That one shouldn't be posted for the masses either, lol.  Especially not at hr 384.

I know, I just thought it was funny that only hours after he posted that the -27F thing was just an anomaly map, the GFS said "um, about that"

[bainbridgekid]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@iFred I just got a FB message from @bainbridgekid that he can't log in.   Check message for contact info... he would love to join this discussion!  

I'm in! Thank you 

[PrideOfPrineville]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I know, I just thought it was funny that only hours after he posted that the -27F thing was just an anomaly map, the GFS said "um, about that"

Agreed.  That stuff will get rid of all the toilet paper, and I love toilet paper.

[MossMan]

All questions will be answered when we get into King NAM range! 

[T-Town]

https://people.com/starsky-and-hutch-actor-david-soul-dead-8422738
 

Well no matter what happens with our arctic blast it won’t quite be the same without Hutch in the world. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I'm in! Thank you 

were you blocked out of the webpage?  I'm having a similar issue and had to log in via vpn on a different browser

[MWG]

[Prairiedog]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really can’t imagine they get less snow at 1200’ unless you are talking about exclusively during overrunning events. If so then absolutely. I mixed out before Salem back in February 2014.

It depends on the event'. If it's an overrunning event with east winds howling north of there, they will mix out quickly.  If it's an onshore cold core showers they do pretty well.  I'm at 315ft and it's about 10 miles up Springwater from my house and it's surprising how little snow there compared to a friend of mine that lives on top of Chehalem Mtn at almost 1,500ft.  They have much more wind and snow there. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New Rod Hill Arctic Blast update.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

My kid said dada for the first time today . He also followed that up with saying that Vancouver to Redding is going to rival the North Pole

[Sandy rocks]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this but I saw Rod Hills blog on youtube and he is saying that the arctic air will definitely go south of Eugene eventually sinking to the bay area. It will come through Portland Thursday evening and be into California by Saturday. He says the cold will last all of the following week but snow may vary due to the dryness of the air but show snow on Friday and maybe Sunday.

[T-Town]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

My kid said dada for the first time today . He also followed that up with saying that Vancouver to Redding is going to rival the North Pole

They grow up so fast. 

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

were you blocked out of the webpage?  I'm having a similar issue and had to log in via vpn on a different browser

I didn't have access to the email I used when I signed up so I couldn't reset my password. Had been autologged in for years and completely forgot it.

[PrideOfPrineville]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

It depends on the event'. If it's an overrunning event with east winds howling north of there, they will mix out quickly.  If it's an onshore cold core showers they do pretty well.  I'm at 315ft and it's about 10 miles up Springwater from my house and it's surprising how little snow there compared to a friend of mine that lives on top of Chehalem Mtn at almost 1,500ft.  They have much more wind and snow there. 

Just a theory, but it seems that in east wind events, Chehalem Mt. area really doesn't have anything blocking it.  Almost a Forest Grove effect type area.  That Farmington rd. gap runs basically straight towards it.  Just a guess and not based on any real knowledge.

[Gradient Keeper]

How's the Icon looking?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How's the Icon looking?

Icon looks fine.

[MossMan]

Wind is currently cranking here right now! 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How's the Icon looking?

Let me ask the GEM 

[PrideOfPrineville]

CFS weeklies look good for this week, lol.  

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wind is currently cranking here right now! 

Yeah the wind has been picking up tonight.

[Prairiedog]

3 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this but I saw Rod Hills blog on youtube and he is saying that the arctic air will definitely go south of Eugene eventually sinking to the bay area. It will come through Portland Thursday evening and be into California by Saturday. He says the cold will last all of the following week but snow may vary due to the dryness of the air but show snow on Friday and maybe Sunday.

Mark was (as usual) far more cautious.  He mentioned the arctic front "could" hang up at the border(Canada, Washington, or Rio Grande?).  When he mentioned the possibility of snow he stopped mid sentence literally, took a breath and stopped.  He just couldn't say it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

It depends on the event'. If it's an overrunning event with east winds howling north of there, they will mix out quickly.  If it's an onshore cold core showers they do pretty well.  I'm at 315ft and it's about 10 miles up Springwater from my house and it's surprising how little snow there compared to a friend of mine that lives on top of Chehalem Mtn at almost 1,500ft.  They have much more wind and snow there. 

That’s interesting. We destroy Chehalem

Mtn here because we out perform them so much during onshore flow snow events. I’ll always complain missing out on an overrunning event, but we do so well with onshore flow that really, the absolute best setup for a huge snow event here is an arctic front stalling in Western Washington with cold onshore flow rotating into NW Oregon. 

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting how much stronger the Tuesday system trended on the GFS today. From a 996mb open wave on the 6z to a tight 982mb low on the 18z.

That's a pretty huge change for inside 100 hours and could easily impact the angle/depth of penetration of the arctic air later in the week. Also seems like it could bring heavy wet snow to SW BC if it keeps that strength and track.

 

[PrideOfPrineville]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Interesting how much stronger the Tuesday system trended on the GFS today. From a 996mb open wave on the 6z to a tight 982mb low on the 18z.

That's a pretty huge change for inside 100 hours and could easily impact the angle/depth of penetration of the arctic air later in the week.

 

 

Hopefully it doesn't spin north and draw in the subtropical jet.  Cue the weenie emojis.

[Prairiedog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s interesting. We destroy Chehalem

Mtn here because we out perform them so much during onshore flow snow events. I’ll always complain missing out on an overrunning event, but we do so well with onshore flow that really, the absolute best setup for a huge snow event here is an arctic front stalling in Western Washington with cold onshore flow rotating into NW Oregon. 

I know you do.  Haven't figured that out.  Air/wind patterns must be different.  What's the reason for that?  Are you getting some colder air filtering down from the mountains?

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Holy hell, catching up on a few hours worth of commentary is an experience these days

From what I gather, it’s coming  

 

[T-Town]

Two snowflakes. F*** yeah!!