January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SnowySeeker50]

Just now, awright-31 said:

I broke down and subscribed to WB. I told myself I wasn't going to do it this winter but I can't not now. Oh well.

Same lol.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

Random cat GIF

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 1.5 (4-run trend)

Devastating trendz 

[snow_wizard]

The ICON is finally seeing the light!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 (4-run trend)

Random outhouse GIF

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Devastating trendz 

Some people just have to be the glass half empty ones on here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Oh, and this is gonna be a top 10 rug pull scenario, bummer.

If it busts completely it’s already done enough to be in the pantheon. Of course there are different levels of bust. December 1996 was a bust for PDX. February 2021 was a bust south of PDX. January 2005 was a bust south of the border. 
 

To me 2005 is a top tier bust despite what happened in BC. Seattle NWS compared the thing to 1950 like 4-5 days out. It was a brutal, soul crushing bust. 

[SpaceRace22]

HOLY , I can't believe the 00z GFS just did that. Wow. Oh my god how can what it's showing right now even be possible?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...is what we'll all be saying in about 20 minutes

[Ziess]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it busts completely it’s already done enough to be in the pantheon. Of course there are different levels of bust. December 1996 was a bust for PDX. February 2021 was a bust south of PDX. January 2005 was a bust south of the border. 
 

To me 2005 is a top tier bust despite what happened in BC. Seattle NWS compared the thing to 1950 like 4-5 days out. It was a brutal, soul crushing bust. 

Don’t forget 2011, that was an epic one!

[SeanNyberg]

Half of us are loading each new frame and switching between different regions and maps.

The other half are waiting for us to react to the different maps that we are loading from different regions.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it busts completely it’s already done enough to be in the pantheon. Of course there are different levels of bust. December 1996 was a bust for PDX. February 2021 was a bust south of PDX. January 2005 was a bust south of the border. 
 

To me 2005 is a top tier bust despite what happened in BC. Seattle NWS compared the thing to 1950 like 4-5 days out. It was a brutal, soul crushing bust. 

That's why I said top 10, there have been alot, more than enough to rank!!  But in all honesty, I am just trying to show the the reverse psychology posers how it's done, it isn't working for them with the Seahawks, and I gotta get my weather reverse psych back on point!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

How about temps?  With upsloping, if your temps are even a couple degrees colder than Chehalem, that can be a big deal.  They're also really exposed from all directions as it's often pretty windy there.  

I don’t really follow their temps, I just have a family friend who lives up that way so I see what they get in terms of snow. I’d imagine we are a little cooler, my exact location especially on clear nights as we decouple well and are fairly wind sheltered. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3  (4-run trend)

Random fail GIF

[snow_wizard]

9 degree drop on the ICON for next Thursday night vs the 12z.

[SnowySeeker50]

GEM is running. Lets see if it wants to rejoin the party or not tonight

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Ziess said:

Don’t forget 2011, that was an epic one!

I think the worst two are 2005 and then 2011. 2020 is a distant 2nd to me because the overall model consistency with that was pretty horrible, at least the way I remember it. 

[bainbridgekid]

Tuesday system is already 9 mb stronger than the 18z at hour 72. Looks like it's going to bomb out into the 970's next frame.

EDIT: 977 mb at hour 78. 11 mb stronger than the 18z. Crazy change for 3 days out.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it busts completely it’s already done enough to be in the pantheon. Of course there are different levels of bust. December 1996 was a bust for PDX. February 2021 was a bust south of PDX. January 2005 was a bust south of the border. 
 

To me 2005 is a top tier bust despite what happened in BC. Seattle NWS compared the thing to 1950 like 4-5 days out. It was a brutal, soul crushing bust. 

Actually the national guys were making the 1950 comparison.  The CPC analogs were all over that year.  Kind of funny they took 1950 out of the analog pool after that.  Kind of a bummer really.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flooding SW Canada with pacific air is probably not a good sign..

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 (4-run trend)

A bird GIF

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think the worst two are 2005 and then 2011. 2020 is a distant 2nd to me because the overall model consistency with that was pretty horrible, at least the way I remember it. 

2020 was mainly about the GFS showing its a**. The Euro never invested much in it outside of a stray run or two.

[Requiem]

It would be lovely if that hideous 972 mb low out of nowhere just ceased to exist please and thank you 

[SeanNyberg]

Icon nearly 10 degrees colder Friday/Saturday for the Seattle area compared to the 12z. Dang!

 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

6 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Half of us are loading each new frame and switching between different regions and maps.

The other half are waiting for us to react to the different maps that we are loading from different regions.

I'm just drinking.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

Random Dave Chappelle GIF

[bainbridgekid]

00z has Tuesday's storm as a 972mb cyclogenic bomb. This is just ridiculous. Don't think I've ever seen a model trend decrease the pressure of a storm by 24 mb inside 4 days here.

Certainly puts into question all the stuff after in such a tenuous pattern.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'm just drinking.

A shot for every frame. 

[Deweydog]

Tuesday looks BREEZY

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ICON is finally seeing the light!

I thought icon looked bad

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'm just drinking.

Drink the goofus model ingredients. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I thought icon looked bad

The icon is fine.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A shot for every frame. 

God, no. I do want to see next weekend. My liver couldn't take that kind of abuse. Just adds to the excitement or numbs the pain...

[The Blob]

I'm going to do my best to keep up tonight in between work stuff.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A shot for every frame. 

A shot for every inch of snow modeled 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 (4-run trend)

Random GIF

[Requiem]

ICON is improved, but it's hard to trust the GFS right now when it's making moves like this 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z has Tuesday's storm as a 972mb cyclogenic bomb. This is just ridiculous. Don't think I've ever seen a model trend decrease the pressure of a storm by 24 mb inside 4 days here.

Certainly puts into question all the stuff after in such a tenuous pattern.

 

 

Then the low weakens and moves SE across Washington. Weird progression. 

Edited January 6 by SilverFallsAndrew

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

4 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Drink the goofus model ingredients. 

No one can drink what the goofus drinks. It's a mixture of good ol' moonshine and the ancient, awful liquers in the back of your parents' booze cabinet. It's never the same mix, tastes horrible, can make you sick, and sometimes lets you see things that aren't there.

[iFred]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Flooding SW Canada with pacific air is probably not a good sign..

It’s over for anyone south of Kamloops. I think it’s time to tone down the hype and make sure everyone gets a break. At least the mountains will get some snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Less amplitude with ridge. I do not like this.