January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Still cold enough for the snow coming tonight! Good night yall, pray for good runs tomorrow morning!

[snow_wizard]

I am still very optimistic about this.  Still strong signals for cold in most model runs.  Tonight's Graph Cast was VERY cold with 850s dropping to about -17.  By far the coldest run yet with that model.  It also has a second shot of cold early in week two and is way more impressive with the blocking.  Going to be a good test for this model.

[AbbyJr]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a fantastic run actually.

Really? While it wasn't as bad as the GFS, it certainly trended towards it. Here is the run to run change for both the GFS and Euro:

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

FWIW despite the recent trends on the models. The Weather Channel still is showing cold temps IMBY. It warmed from what it was showing earlier but it’s still pretty cold with what they are showing. I’ve noticed they tend to base their forecasts of the GEFS and be slightly warmer than it.

The thing is...not a lot has changed in the basic look of pieces we are going to have to play with.  The Kona low is still there, the ridge bridge still happens on most model runs, and there will be a boat load of cold air in play.

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I am still very optimistic about this.  Still strong signals for cold in most model runs.  Tonight's Graph Cast was VERY cold with 850s dropping to about -17.  By far the coldest run yet with that model.  It also has a second shot of cold early in week two and is way more impressive with the blocking.  Going to be a good test for this model.

Where do I find the graph cast model?

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am still very optimistic about this.  Still strong signals for cold in most model runs.  Tonight's Graph Cast was VERY cold with 850s dropping to about -17.  By far the coldest run yet with that model.  It also has a second shot of cold early in week two and is way more impressive with the blocking.  Going to be a good test for this model.

Yeah, looks impressive. 850s in the -16 to -20 range for NW OR and W WA and in the -24 to -28 range for the Columbia Basin

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Really? While it wasn't as bad as the GFS, it certainly trended towards it. Here is the run to run change for both the GFS and Euro:

Look at the surface stuff.   Still very good.

[Doinko]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Where do I find the graph cast model?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202401060000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401121800

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am still very optimistic about this.  Still strong signals for cold in most model runs.  Tonight's Graph Cast was VERY cold with 850s dropping to about -17.  By far the coldest run yet with that model.  It also has a second shot of cold early in week two and is way more impressive with the blocking.  Going to be a good test for this model.

The Graphcast uses initializations of Euro data and I think it’s still only 00z and 12z.

[snow_wizard]

As I said earlier we have been seeing a two steps forward one step back trend in the models for a few days now.  Very likely tomorrows runs will be better again.

[AbbyJr]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Look at the surface stuff.   Still very good.

But the surface stuff is reflected by the 500mb stuff so it's ultimately the most important factor. The Euro was only still somewhat good because it only shifted the polar lobe slightly further east. Shift it much more east and the arctic air misses us entirely. So you can't just focus on the surface details. You must first be concerned with the upper level pattern that drive the surface details. There's more than one factor at play.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

The Graphcast uses initializations of Euro data and I think it’s still only 00z and 12z.

It has the AI aspect though.  That model has been rock steady through this whole thing...just gradually colder with every run.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

The Graphcast uses initializations of Euro data and I think it’s still only 00z and 12z.

The latest run shows it as 00z Jan 06, does it use data from the Euro 12 hours earlier? I don't really have much knowledge about it

[snow_wizard]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

But the surface stuff is reflected by the 500mb stuff so it's ultimately the most important factor. The Euro was only still somewhat good because it only shifted the polar lobe slightly further east. Shift it much more east and the arctic air misses us entirely.

So you can't just focus on the surface details. You must first be concerned with the upper level details that drive the surface details.

I'm just not feeling a rug pull here.  As you know you can't fool yourself on that.  I think the models are in the process of going to more of a nationwide cold wave.  Probably giving the models issues.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doinko said:

The latest run shows it as 00z Jan 06, does it use data from the Euro 12 hours earlier? I don't really have much knowledge about it

He's just playing Debbie Downer.

[snow_wizard]

I know these graphics suck the big one, but you can see how epic the blocking is at the end of the run.  Way beyond any other model.

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just not feeling a rug pull here.  As you know you can't fool yourself on that.  I think the models are in the process of going to more of a nationwide cold wave.  Probably giving the models issues.

You could be right but there is no reason to believe that as of now. There's also no reason to believe the models won't revert back to the colder solutions next run. There's really no way of knowing what's going to happen. But it's concerning seeing the Euro trend towards the GFS on the 500mb pattern shift. Maybe you're not as concerned as I am and that's fine. But this arctic blast is not yet a lock.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Do we have any assurance the forum won't crash again?

Depends on what model you're trusting 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

You could be right but there is no reason to believe that as of now. There's also no reason to believe the models won't revert back to the colder solutions next run. There's really no way of knowing what's going to happen. But it's concerning seeing the Euro trend towards the GFS on the 500mb pattern shift. Maybe you're not as concerned as I am and that's fine. But this arctic blast is not yet a lock.

I'm feeling this one.  That's all I can say.  Nothing has really changed.  This same kind of pullback happened just a couple of days ago and it came back better than ever.

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Depends on what model you're trusting 

I was having issues with the site loading with in the last 30 minutes. On both computer and phone.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Depends on what model you're trusting 

I'm kind of trusting the Graph Cast just based on how I've seen it behave over the last several days.  None of the crazy waffling and just a steady improvement on every run.  It's like it's locked in.  That and so many other good model runs of course.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I was having issues with the site loading with in the last 30 minutes. On both computer and phone.

It was down.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Things are quickly falling apart for the south valley. Still 7 years since the last Arctic blast here and only 1 sub freezing high temp during that time. And that was a surface based event and wasn’t coupled to the upper level.

[LowerGarfield]

I started from page 217 when there were 238 pages and after several minutes, we're still at 238 and I'm at 229 so haven't seen the Euro yet. Must have been bad :(.

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 15 minutes. Let's start a NEW trend!

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, MillCreekMike said:

GFS had bases loaded no outs and went strikeout-strikeout—popout

I didn't know the GFS was traded to the Mariners?

[Meatyorologist]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I said earlier we have been seeing a two steps forward one step back trend in the models for a few days now.  Very likely tomorrows runs will be better again.

Very presumptuous, hope you're right.

[The Blob]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 15 minutes. Let's start a NEW trend!

Mooooaaaaar snow!

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’d be shocked if Sunriver is east-wind-density-Josh. Posting styles seem very different.

What about Terebonner?

[Phishy Wx]

it happens, good thing is we're still outside of 120h for the main event so a correction is possible, or at least a lean back towards the better.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

https://x.com/kseattleweather/status/1743437213474734102?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA

This is probably why there are so many guests tonight. Also I love how he called us “experts”.

This guy needs a raise. He's how I first found the forums.

[snow_wizard]

The spaghetti on the EPS is shockingly good.  I can't cut and paste that, but this shows it well.  About 2/3 of the members are quite cold and a third are a lot warmer than previous runs which gives the mean a much worse look.  The real kicker is the mean 850s still drop to -10.5 on this run.  Only 0.5 higher than the 12z.  2/3 of the members are fantastic.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Things are quickly falling apart for the south valley. Still 7 years since the last Arctic blast here and only 1 sub freezing high temp during that time. And that was a surface based event and wasn’t coupled to the upper level.

Just keep the faith on this one.

[HuskyMaestro]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

This guy needs a raise. He's how I first found the forums.

Same with me back in 2021. I always wondered if he is/was a regular user on here. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The spaghetti on the EPS is shockingly good.  I can't cut and paste that, but this shows it well.  About 2/3 of the members are quite cold and a third are a lot warmer than previous runs which gives the mean a much worse look.  The real kicker is the mean 850s still drop to -10.5 on this run.  Only 0.5 higher than the 12z.  2/3 of the members are fantastic.

One good thing was that at a point the GEM is the single warmest member out of all it's ensembles in the run at PDX at least

[Snownerd3000]

I see the scheduled weekend pullback has people in doubt. It coming. 

[snow_wizard]

30 members on the EPS go to 20 or lower for Seattle mins.  Was not expecting that based on the maps.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I see the scheduled weekend pullback has people in doubt. It coming. 

It's coming.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF still shows temps falling and snow in western WA on Thursday.

If this verifies, and I'm doubtful since the GFS took this away from me, my comment about being satisfied with three inches for my SE WA location would sadly make one of the few winners. Again, I am doubtful because I'm being warm nosed on Mon and Tue.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile...it appears some places could pull off freezing mins each of the next 3 days.  Mins tomorrow would be in the evening.