January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[hawkstwelve]

15z SREF is doubling down on the northward shift. Anybody have a clue how accurate this model generally is?

 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Not in C.IA to South Central, IA-- in increased from 00Z

That is about the only corridor that was an uptick, and a slight one at that.  Western Iowa and Eastern Iowa were down significantly.  

[gosaints]

The EURO must have quite alot of taint around the lake....

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

15z SREF is doubling down on the northward shift. Anybody have a clue how accurate this model generally is?

 

It's basically the NAM ensemble.  I guess I would say it does ok.  Usually shows higher snow totals than most models.  I wouldn't discount it but I wouldn't rely on it any heavier than the GEFS or EPS for sure. 

[gosaints]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

15z SREF is doubling down on the northward shift. Anybody have a clue how accurate this model generally is?

 

The SREF shouldnt get much thought at this range.  There is room for the EURO and GFS to come a little west/north based on the setup but think the short range models are overdoing that.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

The front end of the event appears it will be a wetter snow unless temps cool a couple degrees as we get closer to the main show.  Needless to say, it should be a snow day for most of N IL and NW IN.  @Hoosier @indianajohn you guys are still in the crosshairs.  Might be a big frontend thump, then briefly switchover to RN as the low passes on by, then the backside defo band.

Honestly, 80%+ of the event looks like a wetter snow for Chicago area.  It's been a while since there has been a large wet snow event of this potential magnitude in Chicago proper.  Maybe have to go back to the Nov 2015 storm?  But even that one screwed the downtown area big time with hardly any snow.

[Pros3lyte]

So my question is, should we expect 10:1 ratios across the eastern half of MI? DTX is saying that it will be a heavy wet snow at least at first, then might dry up. 

I live in a heavily rural area, so just wondering how much blowing and drifting will be an issue

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Honestly, 80%+ of the event looks like a wetter snow for Chicago area.  It's been a while since there has been a large wet snow event of this potential magnitude in Chicago proper.  Maybe have to go back to the Nov 2015 storm?  But even that one screwed the downtown area big time with hardly any snow.

That was more or less a NW Suburb event...I lived a coupled miles north of ORD and I had about 4-5" and the city had zilch.

[Grizzcoat]

22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

15z SREF is doubling down on the northward shift. Anybody have a clue how accurate this model generally is?

 

SREF does well in close. Might be outta of it's range, usually over does snowfall like most. NWS AFD used to mention it more- not so much anymore from what I've seen. But hey- any model that has trend - you can't 100% discount.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

That was more or less a NW Suburb event...I lived a coupled miles north of ORD and I had about 4-5" and the city had zilch.

You sure you're thinking of the right one?  ORD had 11.2" but that was probably one of those that had substantially less depth due to melting/compacting.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

You sure you're thinking of the right one?  ORD had 11.2" but that was probably one of those that had substantially less depth due to melting/compacting.

Your prob right, I got the dates mixed up...my bad

[Black Hole]

ECMWF with Tr-2" for my area. I hope I can get at least an inch on the ground because it will stick around lol

Briefly favorable sounding behind the low as it passes but then dry air cuts it off. 

[East Dubzz]

I am hereby predicting a 2-4" snow event in the Dubuque, Iowa area. 

[tbone8]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

That's why it takes a generation.

 

1 hour ago, indianajohn said:

Yep the current trend is a little worrisome. So fascinating how all the stars have to align perfectly for a generational type snow storm for our area.. 

Hi IJ. As someone who lived through and experienced the blizzard of 1978, that, was a generational storm. Fortunately, nothing like it since has occurred and I am fine with that. Bad storms cost money and potentially lives...

[Hoosier]

Just wild that this new January record low pressure for Indianapolis may not even hold for 4 days.

[indianajohn]

5 minutes ago, tbone8 said:

 

Hi IJ. As someone who lived through and experienced the blizzard of 1978, that, was a generational storm. Fortunately, nothing like it since has occurred and I am fine with that. Bad storms cost money and potentially lives...

 

Hey Brother hows it been? been a long time! hope all is well we should get the chat going if latest runs verify.

[Grizzcoat]

12 minutes ago, tbone8 said:

 

Hi IJ. As someone who lived through and experienced the blizzard of 1978, that, was a generational storm. Fortunately, nothing like it since has occurred and I am fine with that. Bad storms cost money and potentially lives...

Yeah-- even  as winter weather lover, we must think about those  that can/will be severely impacted by these events. It's more people than you think. I notice it in my community with people that simple can't clear their own driveway based on age/ lack of $$. It can become a challenge for some to even take the garbage out/ get out of their driveway. Infrastructure in many places is not as great as say MSP etc.

[bud2380]

12z EPS

[tStacsh]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

12z EPS

Yeah, This could be a big dog for Grand Rapids and SMI/CMI.    Consistency is there GFS and EURO area almost identical.  

[tStacsh]

Wish this was in December, but not gonna complain about it in Mid-winter.

[Clinton]

18z HRRR brings the deformation band just to my east.  On this run @KTPmidMO and @ATW get a few inches and east Iowa gets some extra from it also.

[The Snowman]

Just now, Clinton said:

18z HRRR brings the deformation band just to my east.  On this run @KTPmidMO and @ATW get a few inches and east Iowa gets some extra from it also.

Nice increase in QPF for Nebraska after a worrying 12z run.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Nice increase in QPF for Nebraska after a worrying 12z run.

Supported also by the 15z RAP which does a little more with the deformation band in mby.

[Grizzcoat]

[bud2380]

18z HRRR looks similar to the NAM. All the short term models are further north than the global models. Someone has to cave and quick. Storm is almost here. I expect watches will be issued today for at least some areas. 

[FV-Mike]

Got to think  LOT will issue WSW this afternoon. 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z HRRR brings the deformation band just to my east.  On this run @KTPmidMO and @ATW get a few inches and east Iowa gets some extra from it also.

Absolute nuke of a system on that run.  Of course the caveat about taking the long range HRRR with a grain of salt.  One thing I noticed is that it wraps in cold air quicker behind the low, but that may partially be a function of the tremendous explosive deepening.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, FV-Mike said:

Got to think  LOT will issue WSW this afternoon. 

No doubt about it.  Question is where they cut it off.  I'd imagine it won't go too far south of I-80.

[Grizzcoat]

NAM appears weaker in NEB

[Pros3lyte]

Wow. DTX Goes earlier than the rest with the WSW! I can't remember a time in the last 10 years when DTX has jumped on a headline sooner than any other surrounding offices. We're usually the last office to commit to anything, often waiting until the precipitation almost starts.  I'm actually blown away.

Winter Storm Watch

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Midland, Bay, Huron, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac,
  Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer and Livingston Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute. Blowing snow will
  be possible resulting in reductions of visibility. Gusty winds
  could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty exists regarding the northward
  progress of the rain/snow line Friday which greatly impacts
  total snowfall amounts should snow mix with rain or briefly
  change over to all-rain. Snowfall rates are expected to peak
  Friday evening with maximum rates near 1 inch per hour across
  the Tri-Cities and Thumb regions. Very strong winds are
  expected Saturday with gusts of 40-50 mph possible as arctic air
  filters in behind the system sending wind chill values into the
  single digits Saturday.

[Tony]

1mb deeper and at same location compared to 12z run so not much change

[Grizzcoat]

18Z  NAM good for C.IA-- real good

[uticasnow]

6 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

Wow. DTX Goes earlier than the rest with the WSW! I can't remember a time in the last 10 years when DTX has jumped on a headline sooner than any other surrounding offices. We're usually the last office to commit to anything, often waiting until the precipitation almost starts.  I'm actually blown away.

Winter Storm Watch

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Midland, Bay, Huron, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac,
  Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer and Livingston Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute. Blowing snow will
  be possible resulting in reductions of visibility. Gusty winds
  could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty exists regarding the northward
  progress of the rain/snow line Friday which greatly impacts
  total snowfall amounts should snow mix with rain or briefly
  change over to all-rain. Snowfall rates are expected to peak
  Friday evening with maximum rates near 1 inch per hour across
  the Tri-Cities and Thumb regions. Very strong winds are
  expected Saturday with gusts of 40-50 mph possible as arctic air
  filters in behind the system sending wind chill values into the
  single digits Saturday.

Of course the southeastern part is not included as it will change to RAIN once again,...and again...and again

[Grizzcoat]

Likely a blizzard in C.IA with 18Z nam

 

[Pros3lyte]

10 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Of course the southeastern part is not included as it will change to RAIN once again,...and again...and again

I agree. They're probably holding off after seeing those mixing issues from earlier model runs. I guess we'll find out over the next few hours if this newest SE bump will become the trend. Fingers crossed cuz I really could use a nice pick-me-up snowstorm right now!

[Yerf]

LOT issues the WSW

[Grizzcoat]

[Black Hole]

HRRR looking a little better with 1-4" for NE OK. That's probably all I can reasonably hope for so I'll take it.

[indianajohn]

WSW just issued for  NWI

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I'd still like to know what algorithm that is because it doesn't line up with 10:1 or Kuchera.  Maybe snow depth or something else?