January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Wheezer said:

The winds blowing over the warm lake water could make a degree or two difference for chicago during parts of the precipitation,  possibly cutting in to amounts 

Yup, early on but I think from ORD and points east will be good.  It’ll be wet snow first half, then 2nd half it’ll be drier.  Nevertheless, it Should be a great storm.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

46 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

LOT sticking with global models. 

The
forecast for this storm system continues to be handled best by
the more consistent global forecast models and ensembles
(especially the ECMWF and its ensemble members). We therefore
continue to steer the forecast in this direction. Currently, many
of the higher resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM and RAP
continue to be northern and warm outliers with the system, and
thus, their current iterations are not favored.

 

Anyone have a good memory of the 12/15/87 that they are comparing this too?

confidence continues to increase that this anomalously strong storm system (which bears a striking similarity to the heart attack snowstorm of Dec 15, 1987) will produce major impacts across much of northern IL into Saturday morning.

I'm glad they said that because the difference between the NAM, HRRR, etc. vs. the GFS and Euro is very significant, at least in my area.  So now we know to basically throw out those short term models until they start to come more in line with the globals.  

[East Dubzz]

Sorry if this has been posted, but this is what the DVN is riding with..

[james1976]

Really liking the trends up here. Some model runs are showing warning snows for the TC. I'm a bit skeptical but it's good to see!

[Grizzcoat]

I don't think any model right now is doing good at handling the trowal- that could/should be some intense stuff.

WPC thoughts-

Initial WAA over colder sfc air tonight will likely support a
wintry mix in the rain to snow transition zone from northeast KS
into northern IL. North in the snow zone, significant snowfall is
expected on the northwest side of the low as a deformation band
forms and slowly pivots across the area, coincident with an
intense TROWAL as the WCB wraps into the low

Day 1.5 snow probs for >8" are
20-50% from eastern Neb through central IA, increasing on the Day
2 to 40-90% from the WI/IL border across the L.P. The powerful
cyclone reaches peak intensity over the L.P. Friday night with
MSLP in the low 970s making for very strong winds and a blizzard
threat north and west of the low through this time.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice trend over the past four ICON runs.

I can see a compromise between the short term hi-res CAMs and the global models being the most likely outcome for out here. This means Sioux Falls won't see 10+ inches but probably moreso along the lines of 3-6 inches, which is right where the NWS has their expectations currently set. I'd be more than very happy with that outcome.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS and NAM world's apart in SE IA-

[bud2380]

D**n GFS. @OttumwaSnomow might be busy again tomorrow.   

[bud2380]

GFS showing 14" in my backyard.  LOL.  That would be amazing, but I doubt it.  Models are still showing a huge range.  

[bud2380]

Close up of the GFS for areas further east.

[East Dubzz]

GFS showing like 11" here.. NAM showing like 15"

I guess I'll allow something in the middle of that and be happy with it 

[bud2380]

If the NAM and GFS meet in the middle on their track, but keep the same intensity, it would put me square in the jackpot zone.   

[bud2380]

The GFS has more than twice the QPF in Eastern Iowa compared to the Euro.  Models really are not in sync with this storm, so surprises one way or the other could still be in store. 

[East Dubzz]

Canadian is like 9".. GFS like 11".. NAM is 15". Whatever. We'll be conservative and average the three. 11.7" here we come!

[Hawkeye]

I'm concerned a bit about southeast/east-central Iowa.  There is definitely a hint in the models that wave #1 will drop its heaviest snow northwest of us and then wave #2 will mostly miss northeast, leaving a relative dry pocket across this area.  The 06z Euro is showing exactly this.  I'm not buying the GFS, which is very aggressive for southeast Iowa and a southeast outlier.

[Grizzcoat]

GEM has been very consistent with heavy stripe from E.NE into C.IA --- very consistent

[gabel23]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

GEM has been very consistent with heavy stripe from E.NE into C.IA --- very consistent

The NWS forecast percent page kind of shows this also. 

[GDR]

[Tom]

12z GFS including the backside snow and LES...>>>Buried

[hawkstwelve]

Average of 10 different 12z model runs this morning (minus the HRRRR, which was abnormally higher than the other model outputs) puts Sioux Falls at 5.8 inches prior to any light snow on Saturday, which some models show.

Considering just two days ago I was thinking I'd be too far north to score anything at all, this would be a big win in my book.

[Bumblin Bman09]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GFS including the backside snow and LES...>>>Buried

I havent heard much in terms of LES.  Will it be a quick burst due to the storm quickly moving East?

[Tom]

If the Euro doesn't budge, I would imagine LOT extend warnings farther south of I-80...the colder solutions are showing up in this very explosive environment.  I like!  Question is, what counties get put in a Blizzard Warning???

 

 

[Tom]

Just now, Bumblin Bman09 said:

I havent heard much in terms of LES.  Will it be a quick burst due to the storm quickly moving East?

Not expecting it in NE IL...sorry for the confusion, I was referring to our W MI members in the lake effect zones...

[bud2380]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm concerned a bit about southeast/east-central Iowa.  There is definitely a hint in the models that wave #1 will drop its heaviest snow northwest of us and then wave #2 will mostly miss northeast, leaving a relative dry pocket across this area.  The 06z Euro is showing exactly this.  I'm not buying the GFS, which is very aggressive for southeast Iowa and a southeast outlier.

I could see that happening, but I'm not really buying that further north solution just yet.  The Euro is the furthest north of the global models.  The NAM is way north.  The GFS is south, but even if it corrects back north just 50 miles, that is actually better news for you and I, so hopefully the GFS is on to something.  

[Clinton]

12z GEFS 

[Grizzcoat]

4 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

I havent heard much in terms of LES.  Will it be a quick burst due to the storm quickly moving East?

...Central Plains, Great Lakes and interior Northeast...
Days 1-3...

A digging trough crossing AZ today will take on a negative tilt
after crossing the southern Rockies this evening as a
double-barreled jet becomes more buckled and S-shaped across the
Great Lakes into Friday. This will drive strong upper level
divergence and rapid surface cyclogenesis with a deepening area of
low pressure lifting Friday from the Ozarks through the Midwest
and over the L.P. of MI Friday night. This is a strikingly similar
track to the exiting system though it forms farther east over the
Plains). Snow will rapidly increase in coverage and intensity
north of the low this evening over the central Plains and then IA
through MI late tonight through Friday evening. As the low tracks
away on Saturday, intense lake-effect snow develops, covering all
five Great Lakes by Saturday night.

Initial WAA over colder sfc air tonight will likely support a
wintry mix in the rain to snow transition zone from northeast KS
into northern IL. North in the snow zone, significant snowfall is
expected on the northwest side of the low as a deformation band
forms and slowly pivots across the area, coincident with an
intense TROWAL as the WCB wraps into the low. High-end potential
is >18" per PWPF from peak development and lake enhancement in
southeast WI and northeast portions of the L.P., driven by strong
UVV into a sufficiently deep DGZ. Day 1.5 snow probs for >8" are
20-50% from eastern Neb through central IA, increasing on the Day
2 to 40-90% from the WI/IL border across the L.P. The powerful
cyclone reaches peak intensity over the L.P. Friday night with
MSLP in the low 970s making for very strong winds and a blizzard
threat north and west of the low through this time.

Strong northwest to west flow on the back side of the low
envelopes the Great Lakes in the wake with LES beginning off Lake
Superior Saturday and the rest of the Great Lakes by late Saturday
night and continuing in earnest through at least Sunday night. Day
3 snow probs for >6" are 40-80% for typical NW and W snow belts.

[Tom]

Yup, its freaking ripping at Sunrise Ski Resort to my east...had a brief line of showers that rolled through...it's one of those days that I'm going to chill at home, work and watch the weather!

 

[Hoosier]

Boy what a tough forecast for the LOT cwa, in particular for areas within a few miles of the lake and into far northwest IN.  Separating the men from the boys from a forecasting perspective.

[Hawkeye]

UK

[tStacsh]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Not expecting it in NE IL...sorry for the confusion, I was referring to our W MI members in the lake effect zones...

I expect around a total of 18 inches Monday when all said and done with the backside and LEHS saturday night/sunday.    The real good snow really doesn't hit until later tomorrow night.  Not too excited about the heavy wet nature of the beginning of the event.  

[Bryan1117]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

AccuWx's take..."Here...Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard".... @jaster220 @Stacsh @westMJim...ya'll gonna see some wicked streamers coming off the warm LM!  This is going to become a dream storm for you guys.  

 

 

I had to squint my eyes and make sure what I was seeing was right...Euro is the Hero! @indianajohn @tbone8 @Hoosier

Here blizzard, blizzard, blizzard… looks like with this storm tracking further west, Omaha and Lincoln should get in the fun too. Could see some lollipop totals here as well if the short term models can be believed (fingers crossed). I think we are due…

[hawkstwelve]

Trend of last 3 UKMET runs for the 24-hour period ending Friday evening using 10:1 ratios.

Nice little north jog on the latest run, as well as increasing totals especially across E NE and Iowa.

[East Dubzz]

16 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

UK

Fine, I'll settle for 9"!!

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

If the Euro doesn't budge, I would imagine LOT extend warnings farther south of I-80...the colder solutions are showing up in this very explosive environment.  I like!  Question is, what counties get put in a Blizzard Warning???

 

 

It'll be interesting to see if they just go with a winter storm warning or if there is an eventual upgrade to blizzard warning.  The snow and wind look a bit disjointed to me for northern IL as of now (subject to refinement, of course).  Much of the afternoon and early evening snow seems to fall with lighter winds as the surface low passes by, before the winds ramp up in CAA on the backside.  If blizzard criteria is met, it may be more due to blowing snow reducing visibilities and not so much falling snow, though it should still be snowing at that point.    

[Grizzcoat]

At 12.4"

[indianajohn]

Our local weather personaliteis are  really keeping it conservative.. 

[The Snowman]

12z models coming in really awesome for Omaha, taking most of them verbatim it would be an easy 6-8" for the metro, and then of course the higher-end hi-res models breach 12". Can't wait to see OAX's update.