January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Meatyorologist]

Man, everyone is up for the 06z.

fuckkk sleep  ride or die baby!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Man, everyone is up for the 06z.

fuckkk sleep  ride or die baby!

It start at 1?

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The bigger issue is that models like the GFS, Euro, and GEM do not have the resolution to adequately model our terrain dynamics that drive the bulk of our precipitation during events like this. There are countless small scale features that can and will spin up that those models simply will never catch. Just wait until it gets closer and we have the mesoscale models available to us. Then we can worry about snowfall. For now, they are just fun maps.

Better to rely on a larger scale feature. A lot of people miss out on terrain caused snow, or forecast busts. It’s local

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

2/-2 in Omak that day.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It start at 1?

1:35-ish

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oh me too, I absolutely loved that event! 

For sure.  Dec 2021 was awesome.

As much as I've hated this decade it has had some real winter.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, theRunner said:

What is the trend of the GFS so far, if it were to be correct do we completely miss out on snow, or just experience less extreme cold and less snow? 

 

We would have seasonal temps mostly and maybe a little snow. 

[SpaceRace22]

5 minutes ago, theRunner said:

What is the trend of the GFS so far, if it were to be correct do we completely miss out on snow, or just experience less extreme cold and less snow? 

 

If the GFS were to be correct, then the entire region would completely miss out on snow, at least west of the Cascades. You *might* get a little something, but the snow level would probably stay just above you still.

Luckily, the GFS is completely out to lunch and will be spectacularly incorrect.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, iFred said:

Do you have the Jan 2011 and Jan 2020 whiffs? 

Sorry, no. Grabbed that one off the Canadian forum.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Man, everyone is up for the 06z.

fuckkk sleep  ride or die baby!

Hell yeah! It's my weekend 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Hmm, looks like no one looked at the possibility of a major windstorm for my area  

[ShawniganLake]

33 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

Didn’t YVR have their coldest day in like 50 years or something with that.  

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Hmm, looks like no one looked at the possibility of a major windstorm for my area  

It seems unlikely. High winds remain offshore. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We gonna have 100 people on here for the night shift?

[Slushy Inch]

NAM trends west. Gfs is toast

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We gonna have 100 people on here for the night shift?

Hopefully we can get a great 06z!

[SpaceRace22]

I think we should start a class action lawsuit against NOAA for collective emotional distress from the GFS

[Ken in Wood Village]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

It seems unlikely. High winds remain offshore. 

I'm not talking about South winds, they would be East winds coming through the Gorge. Here is the 00Z EPS run. A lot of the members show 60+ mph but there is one that shows 81 mph. 

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

It seems unlikely. High winds remain offshore. 

Fairly possible with that low heading into southern Oregon combined with the push of cold air into the basin. Would be screaming easterlies for the metro.

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

Fairly possible with that low heading into southern Oregon combined with the push of cold air into the basin. Would be screaming easterlies for the metro.

That would be really fun, hoping for some good cold east winds

[theRunner]

When do the next runs come out?

 

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

If the GFS were to be correct, then the entire region would completely miss out on snow, at least west of the Cascades. You *might* get a little something, but the snow level would probably stay just above you still.

Luckily, the GFS is completely out to lunch and will be spectacularly incorrect.

Gfs is actually snowier than the euro over the next 10 days up this way. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

A dandy!

Looks lovely.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, theRunner said:

When do the next runs come out?

 

1:45 so get your alcohol and weed ready!

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, theRunner said:

When do the next runs come out?

 

NAM out to 84 hours. Icon soon?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Come on GFS find the CAVE!!!

[Slushy Inch]

Icon looks slightly better so far. Good move west

[snow_wizard]

Already obvious the 6z ICON will be good only 2.5 days in.

[van city]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Icon looks slightly better so far

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Icon looks slightly better so far

I concur. Seems similar to the 00z, but just ever so slightly better, somehow.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1:45 so get your alcohol and weed ready!

I'm listening to Hendrix.  Same effect.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I concur. Seems similar to the 00z, but just ever so slightly better, somehow.

Better back digging.

[SpaceRace22]

Hour 69 on the ICON. Nice.

[snow_wizard]

I think this ICON run is going to be amazing.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m up to 3 snowflakes now! Highest number so far! 

Only a crummy two here

[SpaceRace22]

00z Spire just posted. Still very much gets there.

[SpaceRace22]

More Spire

[snow_wizard]

Spire is cold.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

00z Spire just posted. Still very much gets there.

Little west. My unfortunate suspicion is this ends up dry and very cold for most. Maybe a better shot with a reload 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Little west. My unfortunate suspicion is this ends up dry and very cold for most.

I’m fine with that. We’ve been playing with house money in the snow dept since 2012. Some super deep Arctic air would be a wonderful memory for this winter.