January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[OysterPrintout]

In Gorge We Trust

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January 1998 definitely becoming a pretty relevant analog. Differences being the Pacific will likely be much quieter this go around. 

yep, dry and cold

euro hinting a slight step towards 'common sense' and not 'balls to the wall'

[snow_wizard]

Only on this forum could this be spun as a bad run.  Geeze.

[MossMan]

I sure hope we are not headed towards a December 2009 bone dry repeat. 

[T-Town]

Showers popping up. 

[Kayla]

Looking like the typical model converge effect today. Still looking cold but maybe not quite as historic.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Only on this forum could this be spun as a bad run.  Geeze.

At least we still have the GEM! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Problem here is what will next run be? 38? 

The Pacific is totally shut down.  Nothing to really warm it up once the cold air is here.  The run is different early in week two but still great with no sign of a quick warmup.

[Perturbed Member]

Previously some models had been showing the arctic front flying south with 850s quickly dropping to near or below -20c in PDX. Not surprisingly this has now pretty much disappeared as it usually does from models as we get closer and things sober up.

With the exception of the ICON, the rest of the models show -7c to -12c around PDX with the initial cold shot which is much more in line with what we usually get with these kinds of events. The GFS of course is still much warmer than even these numbers. 

Outside the GFS, model agreement of -15c or colder 850mb temps into SEA by Friday AM looks good. 

[Front Ranger]

Overall pattern-wise, the Euro is basically a perfect compromise between the CMC and GFS from days 6-8.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Only on this forum could this be spun as a bad run.  Geeze.

It's a good run, compared to the last run it is not.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

In Gorge We Trust

The Columbia Gorge outflow is gonna be crazy! Glad we live near the Gorge.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Agreed, although I'd say another difference is it looks like much colder air nearby this time.

Yeah, at least at the moment the upside cold potential is much higher with this, even if it mainly becomes primarily an outflow event.  This was about the coldest the basin got during its entirety.

[Kayla]

50 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My son is headed there this weekend to see friends, looks like it will be pretty interesting weather-wise.  I think he flies in Thursday afternoon and back out Sunday.

Better pack his extra thick long johns!

[MossMan]

I cannot contain my weenie today. 
PLEASE NO DRY BLAST!! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The initial shot is colder and the pattern is good for keeping it cold.  The reorganization of high pressure over the Pacific early next week could be a big deal too.  Great run.

That’s the most important thing, the first shot trended colder. Get the cold air in here first and worry about the finer details later.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's a good run, compared to the last run it is not.

I think we all knew things would get refined and moderated somewhat. Things are coming together now but overall still looking excellent. I don’t think high temps 10-15 degrees across the board was likely. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a fun few days despite things starting to trend towards reality. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I’ve been away since pretty much last evening. Tried my best to catch up on posts but it’s almost impossible

Kind of crazy to see the GFS sticking to pretty much a non-event while all the other models remain so much more interesting.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm here for the pepto. I prefer the GFS run!

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Only on this forum could this be spun as a bad run.  Geeze.

not 'bad' perse. A step towards practical vs extreme

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I cannot contain my weenie today. 
PLEASE NO DRY BLAST!! 

You are in the best spot on Thursday!    It will not be a dry blast for you.  

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great insight again... 1998 makes sense from an ENSO perspective.  

How much snow was there with that event?

It was a classic battlefield event here. Lots of ice south of the Columbia, tons of snow to the north. Pretty similar to February 2021. This one at least right now looks much drier. I suspect that might change…

[Kolk1604]

12z EPS has started to send this weekend back into the deep freezer 

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

But riding the line a bit more now. Much less wiggle room and we are still 5 days out.

I would be surprised to get whiffed entirely, but intensity and duration are looking a bit more at risk IMO.

Don’t worry, there is still a good chance of a whiff with seasonal temps by Sunday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile, had a 46/38 day yesterday. The low actually happened in the late afternoon in the midst of a decent graupel shower that turned the ground white. I was with my nephew and I told him this is the first sign that cold air is getting closer to us. We also had a slush ball fight.

Partly to mostly cloudy overnight with a low of 39, up to 42 now with clouds and scattered sunbreaks.

[Cold Snap]

Things are still looking great just probably not as cold which is fine. This will still be pretty good for a strong El Niño.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z EPS has started to send this weekend back into the deep freezer 

Today????????

I’m not prepared!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kolk1604]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great insight again... 1998 makes sense from an ENSO perspective.  

How much snow was there with that event?

If I remember right, it shifted south at the last second. Seattle north got screwed. 

I don't rememeber exact amounts, but I had 2 or 3 snow days. Seattle did get snow but it was temps were warming. 

[GHweatherChris]

May as well be just rainy and 50, snow looking less and less likely for my backyard, oh well.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO temperatures Tuesday morning compared to the 00z. Not much change.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Andrew is not on board 

[T-Town]

And now a rainbow. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

May as well be just rainy and 50, snow looking less and less likely for my backyard, oh well.

50 degree AR, hope your leaves are out of your downspouts

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z EPS has started to send this weekend back into the deep freezer 

BOOM! Here we go!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Even a dry blast is refreshing and would bring several sub-freezing highs. Booya!

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Today????????

I’m not prepared!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[GHweatherChris]

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GEM ensembles

[TT-SEA]

Most of the country will be snowy and cold soon.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

12Z GEM ensembles

Hard to believe there are that many members still showing a non-event.   That operational is just a bit on the cold side.