January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For me in Leavenworth, I use the UW WRF 1.33km map.  I have found so often it is extremely accurate at this time range.  Nothing is 100%, but this is really good.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/load.cgi?images_d4/ww_snowacc.72.0000.gif

I agree, it is really good at my cabin and good at home when it's cold so snow is certain.

[Parrot]

14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For me in Leavenworth, I use the UW WRF 1.33km map.  I have found so often it is extremely accurate at this time range.  Nothing is 100%, but this is really good.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/load.cgi?images_d4/ww_snowacc.72.0000.gif

WRF has been awful for the last few events in Puget Sound though. Seems like it just takes the broad global solutions and irons out the microclimates but doesn't actually have any predictive power

[Phil]

18z EPS shifted a bit eastward with the TPV, such that one more westward shift from the GEFS will bring them perfectly in line. I think we’re narrowing down to a solution.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Parrot said:

WRF has been awful for the last few events in Puget Sound though. Seems like it just takes the broad global solutions and irons out the microclimates but doesn't actually have any predictive power

Are you talking about the 1.33k resolution model?    Nobody ever posts the one I use.  The one people post is the one that goes out 240 hours. 

[DC1]

i cant believe the nws is talking like this is going to be a marginal event next weekend. its looking like regardless of the outcome of models it stays snow into the following week

 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z EPS control strongly hints at an incoming WA snow event at the very end of the run.

[Perturbed Member]

17 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This would be nice to see Wednesday morning

I think it is possible but there isn't much margin for error there. I bet there will be accumulating snow to the valley floor somewhere that night, just not sure where. The euro bring that low in pretty much just right for Portland. I have my doubts it will playout exactly like this in reality. 

[Cold Snap]

18z EPS was a notch further east.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Are you talking about the 1.33k resolution model?    Nobody ever posts the one I use.  The one people post is the one that goes out 240 hours. 

Here's the difference.  

 

[Parrot]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Are you talking about the 1.33k resolution model?    Nobody ever posts the one I use.  The one people post is the one that goes out 240 hours. 

That's the one. No one has posted it here yet bc the event is not in range. But its pretty much single-handedly been responsible for making Cliff Mass look like a fool these last few years

[Frontal Snowsquall]

42 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yay GEM! Lock it in 

 

40 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interesting that those models converged with the Euro while the GFS went in a different direction. Oh look! It did the exact same thing last few days.

It’s always use to be ECMWF followed by the UKMET and the GEM/GFS would battle for 3rd place. Just recently the GEM has been scoring 2nd. It’s really improved and is much more accurate now than before.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, Parrot said:

That's the one. No one has posted it here yet bc the event is not in range. But its pretty much single-handedly been responsible for making Cliff Mass look like a fool these last few years

For me it is BY FAR the most accurate model.  Maybe it's because it's the mountains. Don't know about other locations.  And maybe because precip type is not usually the question here as it is over on the west side.

2 years ago this week NWS forecasted 18 inches of snow, this model forecasted more than 36".  We got more than 36".  Every big storm we've had this year and almost all we had last year were accurately forecasted by this model.  

[snow_wizard]

Hard to not like this if you live in WA.  Ridge quickly rebuilds off the coast and drives a shortwave / baroclinic zone inland in the sweet spot to bring some widespread snowfall.  The new ridge assures the low center will not be able to track any further north.  This evolving situation is getting pretty interesting.

[Seattle]

I have been avoiding this place and model riding as I'll be on vacation 1/10-1/22. Can't believe I'm going to miss this event. In a super nino winter. UGH. It's the first time since Christmas 2008 (and I still experienced the best parts of that blast) that'll be out of town for snow/arctic weather 

 

Feel free to weenie away. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Hard to not like this if you live in WA.  Ridge quickly rebuilds off the coast and drives a shortwave / baroclinic zone inland in the sweet spot to bring some widespread snowfall.  The new ridge assures the low center will not be able to track any further north.  This evolving situation is getting pretty interesting.

What are temps like at that time?

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

I have been avoiding this place and model riding as I'll be on vacation 1/10-1/22. Can't believe I'm going to miss this event. In a super nino winter. UGH. It's the first time since Christmas 2008 (and I still experienced the best parts of that blast) that'll be out of town for snow/arctic weather 

 

Feel free to weenie away. 

Real weenies never leave during primetime.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are temps like at that time?

The surface is still cold, but the 850s are warming 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, umadbro said:

I’ll take 6 inches!  

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are temps like at that time?

Quite cold from PDX north.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

The surface is still cold, but the 850s are warming 

850s won't warm anymore though because the low pressure zone will be forced to stay south of us.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

The surface is still cold, but the 850s are warming 

I think it’s being too aggressive with the upper level warming. But yeah the surface will stay cold due to the icy cold east winds.

[Requiem]

Immensely hoping one of those lows can give the South Valley a little something 

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The SEA NWS afternoon discussion was kinda boring for Puget Sound. 

Pretty weird considering the kind of cold air that is going to be in play.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Immensely hoping one of those lows can give the South Valley a little something 

Models are still all over the place regarding how far south the Arctic air will punch.  That will have much to do with how the weekend low tracks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I know it's hour 384, and the EPS is probably different, but this isn't bad for the GEFS.

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

The Euro is deadly at this range, it’s not going to be too far off but there’s room for minor adjustments. If I were forecasting there I’d hug the EPS mean.

But once you get into the 240 hour range, much is still to be decided. Look at the differences between the Euro operational and EPS mean:

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, Seattle said:

I have been avoiding this place and model riding as I'll be on vacation 1/10-1/22. Can't believe I'm going to miss this event. In a super nino winter. UGH. It's the first time since Christmas 2008 (and I still experienced the best parts of that blast) that'll be out of town for snow/arctic weather 

 

Feel free to weenie away. 

Should cancel your trip

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill is going with no Arctic Blast now. He sure loves the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I know it's hour 384, and the EPS is probably different, but this isn't bad for the GEFS.

Complete opposite of Nino climo.

Later in the month we have a good shot at a major MJO wave in region 7, which very often brings cold weather for us as well.

[TacomaWx]

I still regret missing December 2021…was in Texas from December 20th-January 3rd. Had a good time but man I was struggling watching that happen from 2000 miles away

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Rod Hill is going with no Arctic Blast now. He sure loves the GFS.

He must have got blasted for his video he made 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Rod Hill is going with no Arctic Blast now. He sure loves the GFS.

That is flat out embarrassing given the models right now.  I don't think any of them are that warm.

[DC1]

yeah the news up here in seattle is showing temps around 35-40 even for next weekend

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Complete opposite of Nino climo.

Later in the month we have a good shot at a major MJO wave in region 7, which very often brings cold weather for us as well.

What’s your gut say for snowfall totals in EPSL?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I still regret missing December 2021…was in Texas from December 20th-January 3rd. Had a good time but man I was struggling watching that happen from 2000 miles away

That one was sweet.  Really cold, nice amount of snow, a few sunny and cold days.  Loved it.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

What’s your gut say for snowfall totals in EPSL?

2 to 4 inches from the initial cold shot.  Very decent chance of 3 inches or more next weekend.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DC1 said:

yeah the news up here in seatle is showing temps around 35-40 even next weekend

 

WTF?  What are they smoking?

That is just flat out dumb and irresponsible.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

2 to 4 inches from the initial cold shot.  Very decent chance of 3 inches or more next weekend.

I’d be surprised if most places around Puget sound didn’t get 1-2 inches from the actual arctic front. Thats really going to be a nowcast even if the models aren’t showing much ~24 hours beforehand. 

[DC1]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?  What are they smoking?

That is just flat out dumb and irresponsible.  

it was komo news, i was kinda shocked seeing it lol 

she said the only thing we have to worry about this week is the wind and rain

[SimplySmoothWX]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?  What are they smoking?

That is just flat out dumb and irresponsible.  

I can't wait for their forecasts to blow up in their faces