January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Perturbed Member]

The rogue GFS has beheaded the king. 

The king is dead! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS, ICON

[Slushy Inch]

These differences at this time period are insane. 

[Timmy]

Just now, Requiem said:

Let's at least see hour 120 first...

 

[Phil]

Dang. Didn’t fully cave to the GFS but much more progressive with the TPV lobe.

[Slushy Inch]

I’m not sure how this is a cave at all. Never mind.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Tanis Leach said:

Can you explain your confused symbol @Front Ranger

How do you define "good" events? Salem has had some nice snowfalls since 2014.

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The ridge looks better on the Euro than GEM I think this will be a decent run from Portland north

The storm is definitely further south

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Phil said:

Dang.

Good or bad

[GHweatherChris]

MAGA apparently

[Requiem]

Calling the Euro the false and illegitimate title of "the king" is now henceforth banned in this respectable establishment 

(this run isn't actually that bad?)

[Timmy]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I’m not sure how this is a cave at all

Because it is way warmer for everyone at 850mb at least

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I’m not sure how this is a cave at all

Same

[Jbolin]

LMAO, saw this coming on Friday. There was no way the ECMWF was leading the way. 

Oh well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 850s

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’m not sure how this is a cave at all

It’s not a cave. But definitely more progressive.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Timmy said:

Because it is way warmer for everyone at 850mb at least

I edited

[Phishy Wx]

all hail KING JMA

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I would like to see the day I get the same amount of snow as @MR.SNOWMIZER.  This pattern would be great for my area, but the upslope would bury him.

 

You can mock the WRF, but as we get close, it can be quite accurate for precip, but sometimes stingy.

Yeah it's why I'm keeping a close eye on it.  I promised my wife a snow day (a Seattle school district teacher).

It's a fine model - it's just cliff mass relies on it too much,. especially in the LR.  IIRC, the wrf has more data points on our terrain.

[lowlandsnow]

The cave happened during the 18z this run is nearly identical to the 18z control

 

[Parrot]

Still feeling decently ok where I'm at but I'm glad I'm not in Oregon rn

[Slushy Inch]

Snowstorm later on is a new them in models.

[Phil]

GFS is still worse. But the progressive trend needs to stop now or there’ll be problems.

[Gradient Keeper]

-18c Moses Lake, so a huge supply of bitter low level cold available to be tapped into. Thankful for the Gorge.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

-18c Moses Lake, so a huge supply of bitter low level cold available to be tapped into. Thankful for the Gorge.

We’ll be good here at PDX. Especially if you live near the Columbia Gorge. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

That Friday night system is so much warmer on the euro than the other models 

[Snow WA]

No lifes!!! These runs are fine for snow and cold lovers. Unless you're in Oregon no need to whine

[the_convergence_zone]

Ice, ice, baby 

[Gradient Keeper]

Friday 10 AM - 4 PM The Dalles drops from 31 to 19. PDX metro is going to see a lot of snow or ice.

[Perturbed Member]

What a joke. 

12z vs 00z Euro. 

 

[Cloud]

In just 24 hours. And this is the range where the Euro is deadly. Meanwhile, the GFS held its ground. Astonishing. 

[GHweatherChris]

Ronaldo  was hoping to return the rug but......

but he stole another....

Edited January 8 by GHweatherChris

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

What a joke. 

12z vs 00z Euro. 

 

And EPS was so cold. I wonder how it will look now 

[Gradient Keeper]

Friday 4 PM to 10 PM PDX drops from 35 to 24!

[Front Ranger]

Phil's monstrous -NAO just sucks up our little Pacific block, killing support for a full on blast. Feared that might happen.

[Phishy Wx]

the Yanks with a coup?

Wx world collectively freaks out

[westcoastexpat]

Surface temps struggling to go below 20 on the Euro for Seattle. Definitely a step toward the GFS.

Personally not a fan of this run because of the complete lack of snow with the arctic front. But that's a detail to resolve when we get closer to the end of the week.

[Kolk1604]

This is new. Surface temps still cold 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Everyone was saying gfs caved to euro earlier. They are meeting in the middle. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

In just 24 hours. And this is the range where the Euro is deadly. Meanwhile, the GFS held its ground. Astonishing. 

So rare for that to happen. And of all times for it to happen…it almost feels scripted.