January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Happy 80th birthday to Jimmy Page. 

Hopefully we ALL come from the land of ice and snow in a few days.

[westcoastexpat]

Full ECMWF 12Z ensemble members 

[umadbro]

WWA posted for pdx and Clark county.

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I BET those guys have had a party or 2 lol

Rumor has it…

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam looking good in the puget sound Thursday night with the arctic front.

[T-Town]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Apparently Jack Daniels is good for your health.

That’s Jack Daniels Lite. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dewey what is your take on the gfs and euro battle with the weekend deal?

I think there’s valid reasons to think either might be on the right track. It’s an impressive air mass but 500mb is tentative at best, so we’re expecting the models to nail down the toughest part of the troposphere to nail down in about the hardest place to nail it down. The GFS has probably been overall the most consistent, although the ensemble spread past Thursday is still pretty epic. And it ain’t a ton better on the Euro.

All told, I’d lean more toward the Euro op over the GFS given history with air masses of this magnitude with waning 500mb support. Luckily we have a pretty recent analog (12/22) as well as several others further in the past that suggest the GFS is more out to lunch. 

[LowerGarfield]

26 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Big branch down in my front yard from this morning’s winds.

IMG_9549.mov

Lucky no damage but wow, that's a big branch!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like a south trend on the nam also.

[the_convergence_zone]

The Euro ensembles still keep the possibility of the snow band reaching Sea-Tac at about 30%. Which is hardly negligible. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 18Z or 00Z op run bump north. 

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We were at Lewisville Park several years ago, middle of summer without a breath of wind and a branch about that size just decided it was done and fell from about 25 feet onto a 16 year old kid’s head right in front of us. He was out like a light and it about tore his ear off. Can’t remember which year, so tough to make much of it from and analog perspective.

 

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There's about 100 things that all had to go right for it to have that outcome. He was apparently about 10 rows forward of it and said the sound was deafening to the point of making him physically ill, although that might have been from the depressurization. He’s been a complete mess since then.

Everyone on that plane is getting paid.

Phil?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Bummer for Spokane also. Oh well it will be cold at least.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

I'm back in Bozeman so I'll be tracking the Arctic front on Thursday. Should be hit with a snow squall line here in about an hour so that outta be fun!

I'm super excited to see what PDX sees tonight! Pretty classic setup for a nice little snow dump.

https://www.americanbankmontana.com/bozeman-webcam

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, luvssnow_seattle said:

Bummer for Spokane also. Oh well it will be cold at least.

You have zero ZERO room to complain.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Bummer for Spokane also. Oh well it will be cold at least.

We don’t feel sorry for Spokane. 

[LowerGarfield]

Just now, luvssnow_seattle said:

Bummer for Spokane also. Oh well it will be cold at least.

I want to know where the NWS is thinking 2-3 inches for Spokane and probably more for @Phishy Wx unless they were relying on the GFS which is possible since it was published just before the Euro.

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There's about 100 things that all had to go right for it to have that outcome. He was apparently about 10 rows forward of it and said the sound was deafening to the point of making him physically ill, although that might have been from the depressurization. He’s been a complete mess since then.

Everyone on that plane is getting paid.

if that thing was at 30k ft everyone's families would have been getting paid instead.  I'm not getting on a Max 8 if I can help it.  D**n planes are cursed (and shitty constructed apparently)

[Doinko]

NAM looks good

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Phil?

Michael Jackson totally came to my house and used the bathroom too.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

if that thing was at 30k ft everyone's families would have been getting paid instead.  I'm not getting on a Max 8 if I can help it.  D**n planes are cursed (and shitty constructed apparently)

I thought it was a Max 9?

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow 12z EPS mean temp PDX for Saturday 20/14 .... Bitter cold!

[luvssnow_spokane]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You have zero ZERO room to complain.

I have as much room to complain as I like.   Carry on... 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

if that thing was at 30k ft everyone's families would have been getting paid instead.  I'm not getting on a Max 9 if I can help.  D**n planes are cursed (and shitty constructed apparently)

It was retrofitted, so it adds more nuance to it. Not a good look though that the plane had been suspended from Hawaii flights due to repeated cabin pressure warning lights.

[RentonHill]

Sorry if i missed someone already posting it but here's the WRF 

[TacomaWx]

My girlfriend texted me saying someone at her work was saying we could get 8 inches of snow. She wanted to know if I thought that was likely. Told her no! 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

I have as much room to complain as I like.   Carry on... 

good lord you moved away from western Washington and you still complain. 

[Front Ranger]

Yep, NAM officially team Euro now.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I want to know where the NWS is thinking 2-3 inches for Spokane and probably more for @Phishy Wx unless they were relying on the GFS which is possible since it was published just before the Euro.

maybe the NBM is advertising something?  I don't have access

[RCola]

Lolol the WRF. Doesn't it use GFS data or something like that?

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I thought it was a Max 9?

whatever, Max something.  I'm staying off them

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Sorry if i missed someone already posting it but here's the WRF 

do the frames on that gimp model not show the whole state of WA, like it does OR?

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

whatever, Max something.  I'm staying off them

737-9

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Sorry if i missed someone already posting it but here's the WRF 

If this verified id have a new respect for the WRF

[runninthruda206]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yep, NAM officially team Euro now.

It’s over! (For Seattle) 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

do the frames on that gimp model not show the whole state of WA, like it does OR?

 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, runninthruda206 said:

It’s over! (For Seattle) 

How do you get the NAM to show on tropical tidbits?

[iFred]

42 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

12Z GFS ensembles definitely hinting that the operational run is not to be trusted in the long range - clearly an outlier 

Thanks for bringing a dose of reality. Operational runs are worthless anyway and we may be banning anyone without the Meteorologist tag from posting them.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

I have as much room to complain as I like.   Carry on... 

You had that room when you still lived around the Bonney Lake area…But not now lol! 

[LowerGarfield]

Winds are howling...It sounds like high tide at the Oregon Coast.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, iFred said:

Thanks for bringing a dose of reality. Operational runs are worthless anyway and we may be banning anyone without the Meteorologist tag from posting them.

If anything that chart has a pretty good signal that it may stay chilly for awhile.