January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Groundhog]

At this point it looks like dust clouds for the Fraser Valley on Saturday. Oh well, it’s our turn miss out on significant accumulations.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think the GFS OP is fundamentally misreading the entire situation over the NE Pacific. It needs to be thrown out. 

Beyond that I'm really not sure of anything else. It's looking increasingly likely that we'll see the arctic air push into the Portland area on Friday morning and the offshore energy interact with that more on Saturday. There's still a whole range of possibilities with that. I definitely don't think a dry event is off the table up here though, particularly with what should be a pretty stout dry layer and offshore flow component in the lower/middle levels of the column by Saturday morning. The warm air advection and PWAT assistance pushing in at that point should combat that a little and give us a shot at a needle thread scenario.

We're already potentially getting one of those tonight so we'll see if lightning can strike twice inside of a week. 

Something like the GEM or Euro would be really nice

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These events almost never look good before they start lol.

I think PDX to Seattle will have a major snowstorm. I think the GFS will lead the way with a bullseye over Olympia/Chehalis .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Until 2021 I thought 2004 was a devastating ice storm.

[LowerGarfield]

@Phishy Wx did you find it? Also what ever happened to @gusky I think they were supposed to be in Walla Walla this winter?

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If 2004, 1998, 1968, 1980, 2014, and 2012 all had a baby...

This sort of thing is how the nuclear family is being destroyed.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This was my total snowfall in February 2014!

Nothing on the 9th? Seattle area had a widespread 2-3" with that on the back end of the cold spell as the jet stream moved back north. Seem to recall it extending up to about Stanwood.

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[SeanNyberg]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think the GFS OP is fundamentally misreading the entire situation over the NE Pacific. It needs to be thrown out. 

Beyond that I'm really not sure of anything else. It's looking increasingly likely that we'll see the arctic air push into the Portland area on Friday morning and the offshore energy interact with that more on Saturday. There's still a whole range of possibilities with that. I definitely don't think a dry event is off the table up here though, particularly with what should be a pretty stout dry layer and offshore flow component in the lower/middle levels of the column by Saturday morning. The warm air advection and PWAT assistance pushing in at that point should combat that a little and give us a shot at a needle thread scenario.

We're already potentially getting one of those tonight so we'll see if lightning can strike twice inside of a week. 

"I think the GFS OP is fundamentally misreading the entire situation over the NE Pacific. It needs to be thrown out."

Based on what? What situation are you reading in the NE Pacific? and how is the GFS misreading it? It is such a bold and declarative statement, it seems weird.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is that AI model showing for the weekend?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

My prediction:

On Thursday morning, the NAM 3km puts a blob of purple over @MossMan with the arctic front and it verifies. Dustings for everyone else with the AF. Then the weekend system goes way south and delivers for @TigerWoodsLibido. Those two end up the big winners.

Next December when the first model ride of the season shows up, Tiger starts up his “my climate sucks” line and MossMan cranks up the vomit reacts, same as ever.

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS is way south with the system

[Winterdog]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  You have to like where we are sitting here.

What's to like where I'm sitting?  The Euro is king and it slams the door on us up here.  Cold is good but dry cold is only half the glass.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is that AI model showing for the weekend?

It’s hard to tell due to the resolution but 12z GraphCast has the initial push of moisture Friday evening into Central OR. But the second surge lifts up further north to what I would say is SW Washington. So kind of similar to the EURO but not as far south.

 

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is that AI model showing for the weekend?

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is that AI model showing for the weekend?

Not quite as far south as the Euro but it hammers the Willamette valley.

[Doinko]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Not quite as far south as the Euro but it hammers the Willamette valley.

Looks great for here

[Tyler Mode]

For PDX

[RentonHill]

the Spire may be onto something. It has the initial push south like euro but it has the second low come in higher a la GFS. Sorry map isnt closer up options are limited

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This sort of thing is how the nuclear family is being destroyed.

@Anti Marine Layer

[SeanNyberg]

The low placement among the three major model ensembles. 

[RayRay]

All I want for January (Christmas) is some snow…

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

"I think the GFS OP is fundamentally misreading the entire situation over the NE Pacific. It needs to be thrown out."

Based on what? What situation are you reading in the NE Pacific? and how is the GFS misreading it? It is such a bold and declarative statement, it seems weird.

Based on the fact that it's significantly more progressive and weaker with the Canadian airmass than literally any other guidance right now and it's objectively a worse performing model than any of the other major ones we look at. Its own ensembles significantly deviate from it right now inside of 96 hours, which at this point is a major red flag. 

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[Mid Valley Duck]

EPS is pretty dry for those north of Clark county.

[Christensen87]

#TeamGFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

the Spire may be onto something. It has the initial push south like euro but it has the second low come in higher a la GFS. Sorry map isnt closer up options are limited

 

Does Spire have snow maps?

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Based on the fact that it's significantly more progressive and weaker with the Canadian airmass than literally any other guidance right now and it's objectively a worse performing model than any of the other major ones we look at. Its own ensembles significantly deviate from it right now inside of 96 hours, which at this point is a major red flag. 

Agree with first two points, but to be fair the spread with low placement is not much greater for GFS than for Euro and CMC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS is way south with the system

 

[Minion]

17 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Gun to the head, bet the house, everything on the line, obviously the smart bet is to follow the Euro. It is just statistically more accurate. HOWEVER, and I think this is where a lot of you guys get lost, just because it is accurate more often, doesn't mean it is always more accurate.

The GFS is a great model, even though we love to mock it. And it puts the low farther north for a reason. The Euro is a fabulous model and it puts the low farther south for a reason. Meaning, they could "show their work" and describe why they're guessing what they're guessing. It is not just made up out of nothing.

There is a REASON the GFS wants to put it so far north. But there is also a REASON the Euro wants to drive it south. The Euro has a great track record, but it does screw things up sometimes. The GFS has a very good track record, but it too screws things up.

So this is far from done. Both have been pretty consistent with their placement of the low. There are a number of things that the GFS has sniffed out before the other models in the run up, but the same could be said for the Euro.

The point is (get to it already!) is that the uncertainty is real and not just wish casting. Just because the Euro has a better track record, doesn't mean it is always right, but it DOES have a better track record.

So... knowing ONLY what we know now, if I was forced to bet, I would bet on the Euro SIMPLY based it's better track record. But would I do so confidently? No. Would I be shocked if I lost my bet and the GFS was more accurate? Not at all. Is this still pretty far away with a NUMBER of rare components at play for this region? Yes.

This is the fun part. But disregard anyone who presents any model as gospel. The one thing I can guarantee is that the Thurs-Sunday period will NOT play out exactly as the Euro, GFS, or GEM are forecasting. But which will be closest? Time will tell!

I'm going to be completely honest bro.. You said a whole lot of nothing lol

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

EPS is pretty dry for those north of Clark county.

What's mean snowfall like?

[Minion]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My prediction:

On Thursday morning, the NAM 3km puts a blob of purple over @MossMan with the arctic front and it verifies. Dustings for everyone else with the AF. Then the weekend system goes way south and delivers for @TigerWoodsLibido. Those two end up the big winners.

Next December when the first model ride of the season shows up, Tiger starts up his “my climate sucks” line and MossMan cranks up the vomit reacts, same as ever.

A big happy family 

[Kayla]

I don't have a lot of confidence in the Euro at this point. It has been struggling with this pattern since the onset. 

[Phishy Wx]

20 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Click on "More Snow Thursday" it's the last side bar on the main page. It's new actually.

weird

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Based on the fact that it's significantly more progressive and weaker with the Canadian airmass than literally any other guidance right now and it's objectively a worse performing model than any of the other major ones we look at. Its own ensembles significantly deviate from it right now inside of 96 hours, which at this point is a major red flag. 

I still wonder if they overcorrected for its raging mid range cold bias when they did the upgrade. There have been other events in the recent pasts where it has been one of the first to lock onto cold in the long range, only to drop the ball in the 5-7 day range and stubbornly dig its heels almost right up to verification.

[Minion]

A lot of us will see snow.. that's pretty cool in a El Nino.

 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, Doinko said:

What's mean snowfall like?

Further north the higher the conversion rate is from QPF to Snowfall. Looking at the members there are quite a few boom or bust members. It's also just a much drier ensemble than the others and even the operationals. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Further north the higher the conversion rate is from QPF to Snowfall. Looking at the members there are quite a few boom or bust members. It's also just a much drier ensemble than the others and even the operationals. 

Looks like I'm in a good spot by this map. Ratios look pretty high with temps in the low 20s and teens with the snow in the Euro

[Deweydog]

Moderate rain!

[ajreich]

Weird, a lot of the forum disappeared again. Technical difficulties maybe?

[Doinko]

HRRR nails Portland tonight

[TacomaWx]

Might just be an Oregon event and us western Washington folks will have to see what it’s like being down there for once lol. We will see though going to be interesting!