January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, DDDRWx said:

Working on a project and noticed it got pretty quiet outside a while ago…voila!  Crazy really.  

Take note everyone…This is why you leave the Christmas lights up until the second week of March! Looks awesome!! 

[OysterPrintout]

PDX to 35 after brief lull as low pivots let's drag that down more please

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This run is going to pull off another cold shot about a week out.

Ridge looks wack. But blocking does seem to continue to be the theme for now.

[Cold Snap]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Feel a bit better now that I just watched MS’s new update. I have a feeling that secondary low on Saturday will become more well known in the models and deliver some good stuff to Western Wa. I have to remind myself that this happens so often with these setups where not much shows in the model world until we are almost up against it. That happened in December 2008 among many many other events. I don’t think this is over for us up here…It could just be the beginning. 
Temp down to 36.9 with more lumps. 

Made me feel better as well! Hoping we can still score something!

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This run is going to pull off another cold shot about a week out.

Yep. It's likely to just keep on coming. This could be a very cold January for many. Absolutely insane. We are overdue. It was bound to happen one of these years. 

[DDDRWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Take note everyone…This is why you leave the Christmas lights up until the second week of March! Looks awesome!! 

Christmas! Took down the main display in the front yard.  Left up my ‘winter’ trees ( not sure The Wife bit on that). The backyard lights will be up through any potential winter weather.

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows a slightly deeper and more well formed low than the GFS on Saturday morning.   So it seems like the ECMWF is picking up on cyclogenesis.  

It’s plenty strong with the parent low. It just isn’t buying a strong surface low out ahead of it. GFS, GEM and ICON all develop one. The Euro doesn’t 

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

It’s plenty strong with the parent low. It just isn’t buying a strong surface low out ahead of it. GFS, GEM and ICON all develop one. The Euro doesn’t 

 

ICON looks really nice, cold and snowy for the Willamette Valley

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

It’s plenty strong with the parent low. It just isn’t buying a strong surface low out ahead of it. GFS, GEM and ICON all develop one. The Euro doesn’t 

 

For Seatle is all about Saturday though. 

[Doinko]

Looks like an 18z GFS caught on to the 2/6 snow!

[westcoastexpat]

Let's not forget that the GFS has been stubbornly consistent. That cannot be ignored. It was also the model that everyone thought was crazy a few days ago but was actually leading the charge. It's the model to watch.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Let's not forget that the GFS has been stubbornly consistent. That cannot be ignored. It was also the model that everyone thought was crazy a few days ago but was actually leading the charge. It's the model to watch.

You been sounding pretty optimistic this evening about January. 

[Doinko]

Rain is changing back into snow

[snow_wizard]

No matter what this is going to be a respectable event coming up.  Just hope this area can get some snow.  The cold will be nice regardless.  Classic Arctic front Thursday night.

[DDDRWx]

Passing the streetlight test! (Hopefully I attached this the correct way… pretty clueless when it comes to this )

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

It’s plenty strong with the parent low. It just isn’t buying a strong surface low out ahead of it. GFS, GEM and ICON all develop one. The Euro doesn’t 

 

interesting the GFS has the strongest parent Arctic low in Alberta at almost 1050mb, ICON has the strongest BC Low at 1043

[TT-SEA]

And then the ECMWF shows we have something similar in 9 days!

 

[snow_wizard]

The Puget Sound area gets snow with that second cold shot on the ECMWF.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Yep. It's likely to just keep on coming. This could be a very cold January for many. Absolutely insane. We are overdue. It was bound to happen one of these years. 

2017 will be tough to beat for PDX. That was their coldest January since the 1970s, close to 8 degrees below normal.

For SEA, 1980 was the last truly impressive January, and that was warmer than Jan 2017 in PDX. So much more attainable.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Puget Sound area gets snow with that second cold shot on the ECMWF.

Assuming that does not trend south again.     

Or if the pattern even evolves that way... this run was way different than the 12Z run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember the event in late February 2019 that hit Eugene and produced the famous pic of TWL sitting on the porch looking at the snow stayed suppressed as modeled.   I was sure that thing was going to end up here but it stayed way south.    

One of the few times I’ve had the opportunity to post snow photos.

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No matter what this is going to be a respectable event coming up.  Just hope this area can get some snow.  The cold will be nice regardless.  Classic Arctic front Thursday night.

And the ratios will be great with the Arctic front. I bet there will be surprises as it passes through. There always are. Some people could score big.

And looks to stay cold for weeks with multiple cold shots reloading potentially. All the snow that likely falls over the weekend could stay on the ground for weeks. We have been due for a frigid January. Finally this looks to be it.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like an 18z GFS caught on to the 2/6 snow!

Good find!   Sounds like that was a relatively small shift north.   It was still totally sunny up here.   I remember it well.  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2017 will be tough to beat for PDX. That was their coldest January since the 1970s, close to 8 degrees below normal.

For SEA, 1980 was the last truly impressive January, and that was warmer than Jan 2017 in PDX. So much more attainable.

The first half of Jan 2017 was amazingly cold here. The first 15 days were the second coldest stretch on record at Hillsboro, only after 1937. It beat out years like 1949, 1950, 1930, and 1979

[lowlandsnow]

Wow

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No matter what this is going to be a respectable event coming up.  Just hope this area can get some snow.  The cold will be nice regardless.  Classic Arctic front Thursday night.

Have to enjoy it for what it is. Many will get a bit of snow with the arctic front at least.

Planning to do a marshland walk on Sunday or Monday to take advantage of the freeze. Roads should be pretty good due to not much snow falling.

[BLI snowman]

Officially have hit 1" here.

Most in January since the great storm in 2017.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, DDDRWx said:

Passing the streetlight test! (Hopefully I attached this the correct way… pretty clueless when it comes to this )

IMG_1750.mov

Definitely passing the streetlight test there.  

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

Yup! It's hard not to like any of the runs tonight. Seattle is going to score big. And hopefully others can get in on the action too.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

ECMWF finally looks like the GFS!   Now it has hold right there for 10 days. 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

I won’t be fooled again

[Phishy Wx]

Brrr

that's the mean

[Doinko]

Snowing pretty heavily!

[snow_wizard]

Impressively cold for no snow cover until the end.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like an 18z GFS caught on to the 2/6 snow!

This is what Marks RPM model showed and what his final forecast for the 2/6 snowstorm. And then what actually happened. Precip went way further north and was more juicy.

[snow_wizard]

If I have a high of 25 or lower with this that would be 3 winters in a row to have that cold of a max temp.  That is extremely rare for this area.  This will be 4 winters a row with at least 2 freezing max temps.  Also quite rare.

[Gummy]

9 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

It somewhat resembles the top of the space needle. Is that a good omen, probably not.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If I have a high of 25 or lower with this that would be 3 winters in a row to have that cold of a max temp.  That is extremely rare for this area.  This will be 4 winters a row with at least 2 freezing max temps.  Also quite rare.

As rare as 1 sub-freezing high in 7 years?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 40F. Come on, let's get this bad boy up to 50F!!!

[Doinko]

Starting to stick in places