January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Have to say I am starting to get that sense as well.  

The projected location overall is close enough to where we could get some precip up north if the coverage on the north end is underdone. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From what I can tell the low on the 00z NAM was slightly further south and moves through quicker. The other differences are due to what Tim mentioned. 

Edited January 11 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z vs 18z

 

Oh-- I was talkin' about the 18z Euro vs. the 12z, the 00z NAM is definitely wetter 

[TT-SEA]

Just had a small cell move over my area... started out as rain/snow mix but was all snow for about 5 minutes before it ended.   Slight coasting number 4 or 5 this week!   Should be basically dry out here now until the arctic front approaches.

[The Cats Meow]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 850mb temp on Saturday morning over Seattle on the 12Z run was -17C and on the 00Z run its -8C.    Crazy big change there but maybe not at the surface.  

Could that be a result of more moisture getting further north eroding some of that colder air?

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have to say I am starting to get that sense as well.  

What makes you think that? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, The Cats Meow said:

Could that be a result of more moisture getting further north eroding some of that colder air?

No

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

What makes you think that? 

Just past history.   Nothing specific.   Although there has been a complete reversal of the south trends today.  

[TacomaWx]

39/34 today here in Tacoma. Might be a bit icy tomorrow totally clear outside.

[Perturbed Member]

12z vs 18z Euro, the trend since this morning is pretty obvious. The Euro and NAM both shifted north pretty similarly. 

Even a 25-30 mile shift further north on the 00z Euro would give PDX much bigger totals. 

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Update:

Finally have new background picture for the work computer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

12z vs 18z Euro, the trend since this morning is pretty obvious. The Euro and NAM both shifted north pretty similarly. 

Even a 25-30 mile shift further north on the 00z Euro would give PDX much bigger totals. 

As I mentioned this is caused by the models picking up the dynamics along the arctic boundary and more precip, it’s not a cave to the GFS or even a compromise. At this point at least. Either way it’s great news for PDX which will remain snow throughout. Potential January 1930 scenario. 

[TT-SEA]

Run trend for Saturday morning from GFS and ECMWF for comparison.    Getting much closer now.

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As I mentioned this is caused by the models picking up the dynamics along the arctic boundary and more precip, it’s not a cave to the GFS or even a compromise. At this point at least. Either way it’s great news for PDX which will remain snow throughout. Potential January 1930 scenario. 

Looks like a cave to me. Everything is heading north. Soon portland will have zero snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GRAF trended snowier for PDX. How does 7.7” of snow feel with 50mph east wind gust? It only goes out to Saturday 4pm so there could possibly be even more snow on the way. On the map there’s a band of 10”+ snow. Great run!

 

[TT-SEA]

Early look at ICON for Friday... no northward shift.   Maybe a little southward shift.   We will see about Saturday.

[Doinko]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z GRAF trended snowier for PDX. How does 7.7” of snow feel with 50mph east wind gust? It only goes out to Saturday 4pm so there could possibly be even more snow on the way. On the map there’s a band of 10”+ snow. Great run!

 

That would be a true blizzard in places

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Looks like a cave to me. Everything is heading north. Soon portland will have zero snow.

That's the spirit!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Huge shift north on icon early sat morning 

Edited January 11 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[RentonHill]

ICON way north

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Early look at ICON for Friday... no northward shift.   Maybe a little southward shift.   We will see about Saturday.

Spoke too soon Tim-othy

[Requiem]

ICON looking more like the EURO and NAM. Very nice to see. Really reminding me of February 2014

[TT-SEA]

And now can see big northward shift on ICON for Saturday.     Looks like its very close to 00Z NAM and ECMWF.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Early look at ICON for Friday... no northward shift.   Maybe a little southward shift.   We will see about Saturday.

 

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Huge shift north on icon

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Spoke too soon Tim-othy

No... my statement was about Friday.   I said we will see about Saturday.   Sorry Kur-tis or Cur-tis.  

[GHweatherChris]

NORTH!!  That is todays word.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ICON way north

 

It’s coming!!! 

[MikeInEverett]

Woah. Wonder if this trend will continue and the GFS reverses it’s south trend or if models will all finally meet in the middle and stay where they are going tonight.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Huge shift north on icon early sat morning 

It’s only Wednesday. Just need that to move 25-40 miles further north every day. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Woah. Wonder if this trend will continue and the GFS reverses it’s south trend or if models will all finally meet in the middle and stay where they are going tonight.

Million dollar question right there!   Is this is the compromise or the beginning of a continued northward shift??? 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

No... my statement was about Friday.   I said we will see about Saturday.   Sorry Kur-tis or Cur-tis.  

Meh, Ronaldo and I only care about Saturday at this point!!!  And he brought some friends!!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ASTORIA

[van city]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Early look at ICON for Friday... no northward shift.   Maybe a little southward shift.   We will see about Saturday.

[Requiem]

One great thing is seeing that second low, rather than slam into California, hit southern Oregon instead on recent models (including the 18z Euro). Brings a lot more snow potential into the mix.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Woah. Wonder if this trend will continue and the GFS reverses it’s south trend or if models will all finally meet in the middle and stay where they are going tonight.

It seems like everything is pretty close to Portland right now. I’d be shocked if everything went super far north but it’s close enough now that we could get a bit of snow clipping Puget sound potentially. 

[Doinko]

ICON looks like a snow to zr to snow storm for PDX

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That would be a true blizzard in places

Indeed! 40 to 50 mph wind gust for the entire day on Saturday with temps in the teens. Can it get any better than that!?

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON low position on Saturday morning... right in line with NAM and ECMWF.   So far good model agreement tonight.  

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

ICON looks like a snow to zr to snow storm for PDX

Wouldn't pay attention to the ICON's precip type right now, at face value that's all snow 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It seems like everything is pretty close to Portland right now. I’d be shocked if everything went super far north but it’s close enough now that we could get a bit of snow clipping Puget sound potentially. 

At this point give me some flakes flying in a  brisk north wind and I’ll take it.