January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[AuburnTexan]

Total newb  - Just wanted to say I appreciate the banter and insight here. Moved from Texas about 5 years ago and the weather there isn’t as unpredictable as it is here (that I can remember).

Everybody bought all the bananas right?

[Slushy Inch]

Something funky going on by Vancouver 

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, AuburnTexan said:

Total newb  - Just wanted to say I appreciate the banter and insight here. Moved from Texas about 5 years ago and the weather there isn’t as unpredictable as it is here (that I can remember).

Everybody bought all the bananas right?

Welcome! 

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Ski resorts don’t even use a 48” but I’m sure the lowlands of Maryland need one. 

For a top-tier nor’easter? Hell yeah we do.

In 09/10 even 48” wouldn’t have been enough.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

These bands over me have been dry. Just flurries and a light coating of less than 1/2. 21 degrees.

[DeepFriedEgg]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Something funky going on by Vancouver 

Meso low?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

27 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is it me or does this look like it's reaching a little further north 

Yeah, previous runs never had the precipitation shield reach Puget Sound. Tonight’s 00z was the first one to show it but it makes sense since precipitation always seems to make it further north than advertised. GraphCast was trained using 39 years of archived data from the EURO. It compares current weather patterns with similar weather patterns in the past in its algorithm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another positive to this is it will break off a bunch of limbs and branches which would otherwise aid the spread of imminent destructive fires in August-Sept.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Almost looks like a small meso low has developed on southern Vancouver Island. 

You can see it on radar and sat loop. It looks to be stirring up moisture. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Southeast Alaska is colder than South Central tonight… wonder when the last time Ketchikan was colder than Anchorage? A lot of cold air headed down to y’all from up here!

[Phil]

54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Phil will be lucky to get 48" in the next decade in his rapidly warming Gulf Stream climate.

 

That is a definite possibility. But at least our severe season is getting exponentially better to compensate, heh.

You might have to bump-troll me for this, but I’m actually feeling okay(ish) about snowfall prospects this winter. A million ways for things to go wrong, as always, but the way the pattern is progressing is pretty much textbook for an Archambault event at the tail of the blocking pattern. And probably another one next month. We’ll see, though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham 9 degrees with a 62 mph gust. They are now in high wind warning territory.  Going to be massive freezing spray up there.  

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Another positive to this is it will break off a bunch of limbs and branches which would otherwise aid the spread of imminent destructive fires in August-Sept.

really hoping the warm air advection is overdone and it ends up as sleet instead of ZR down here

[Phil]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thanks for ruining my night, Tim! I was actually heading to bed with a little hope. 

Hope is a dangerous thing w/rt this hobby. Recipe for a crushed spirit. You never know when mama nature is going to stick you with a multiyear cycle of disappointment.

I speak from experience.

[Sometimesdylan]

The house wiggled a little a few minutes ago and I all my friends slept thru it

[SouthHillFrosty]

Did the NAM move north a bit? Or, will it just bomb a bit harder south...... Added a comparison 

Edited January 12 by SouthHillFrosty

[lowlandsnow]

-27 at Harts Pass only 21 degrees from Washington's all time record

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Did the NAM just jump north again?

Yes but I think it is just playing catch-up.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Did the NAM move north a bit? Or, will it just bomb a bit harder south...... Added a comparison 

Looks like a slight jog north but the lowest pressure is way north of the 00z but it overall looks the same pretty much.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like a slight jog north but the lowest pressure is way north of the 00z but it overall looks the same pretty much.

Yup you are spot on. This was exactly what the next frames showed!

[ShawniganLake]

38 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Something funky going on by Vancouver 

Fraser Outflow, Howe Sound outflow and NW wind down the strait of Georgia are having a convergence party.  

[North_County]

Single digits. Wind still raging. Sounds louder than it's registering at this station.

 

[ShawniganLake]

33 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Another positive to this is it will break off a bunch of limbs and branches which would otherwise aid the spread of imminent destructive fires in August-Sept.

A lot of dead dry branches on the forest floor could arguably make the fire threat worse.   

[DeepFriedEgg]

Hoping the 6z GRAF packs a little more juice.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM 

[DeepFriedEgg]

@Perturbed Member How is the system/moisture progressing out in the Pacific?

[DeepFriedEgg]

Jump north on the graf. Lower totals for pdx w/ more ice. Dang

[DeepFriedEgg]

Actually doesn't seem like a jump north just has more WAA and thus more ice.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Jump north on the graf. Lower totals for pdx w/ more ice. Dang

Post it pls?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Actually doesn't seem like a jump north just has more WAA and thus more ice.

Please share 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why does our weather always suck?

[DeepFriedEgg]

Gonna be weird to have sleet and possibly ZR with surface temps in the teens...

[Perturbed Member]

06z GRAF

Plenty of precip but warming aloft. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

06z GRAF

Plenty of precip but warming aloft. 

Looks like SW WA could be the winners here as they avoid that WAA. 

Don't want to speak to soon but at least PDX metro won't have to deal with as much ice as the rest of the valley. This is going to be a crippling ice storm for much of the valley.

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z GRAF

Plenty of precip but warming aloft. 

Bummer because 0.9in of QPF at 15 degrees is usually like 20 inches.

[DeepFriedEgg]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why does our weather always suck?

Crazy that we are going to have all of this low-level CAA just for the 850s at SLE to bottom out at -5C.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well that’s too bad. At least we aren’t seeing the cold moderate. Graf showing highs in the teens at PDX and only 24 on Sunday. Unfortunate this won’t be the snow event many had hoped for but wise so many local folks decided not to celebrate so soon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Crazy that we are going to have all of this low-level CAA just for the 850s at SLE to bottom out at -5C.

Next winter we get a Nina. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next winter we get a Nina. 

Yes. How do ENSO neutral winters do? If I recall, 2016-17 was neutral and that worked out well.

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next winter we get a Nina. 

I know we keep saying it, but we are due for a true regional blast (-12C 850s at SLE). No more of this backdoor stuff!