January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Next winter could be amazing.  Strong Nino to Nina transition and a positive QBO.  And we have finally broken the January curse it seems.

If it even is a niña. Next warm pool extension is due any time now (usually happens around solar maximum).

[LowerGarfield]

-5F right now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

SEA lost some data today so hard to tell how high it got. But by looking at the obs, can’t be more than 23F. The 25F recorded at 2am would be the lowest max in quite some time. 

I think they had a midnight high.

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Mossman didn't get snow. Not impressed. 

This would have been top tier and even extra special because of Phil’s strong El Niño…But won’t be very memorable for me years from now like the last 5-6 seasons have been. UNLESS we get something next week, that could change things quite a bit for me. 
But single digits is still quite impressive. 
 

Hope all of the plumbers in NW plumber land are resting up…Because it’s coming! 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 16 at SEA.  Is this thing for real?

19 here…wind is starting to die down a bit. I think we could hit 10 degrees here tonight. My record of 14 is absolutely going down. 

[Phil]

Too many pages to catch up on. Did I miss anything big?

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think they had a midnight high.

Had to compare it with BFI. Remarkably airmass, for daylight, BFI barely touched 21F. SEA can’t be that far off. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Too many pages to catch up on. Did I miss anything big?

Coldest temp in Bellingham since January 1982. With no snowcover this time as well, just outflow I think

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

19 here…wind is starting to die down a bit. I think we could hit 10 degrees here tonight. My record of 14 is absolutely going down. 

What year was the 14?

[Poulsbo Snowman]

6 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Completely understandable. Everyone getting snow would be great, but that can't happen so I'm rooting for less freezing rain.

 

But who knows, maybe the 850s will be colder than forecast and everyone can get some snow, but that seems unlikely.

It's the 925s you need to worry about.

[snow_wizard]

0z NAM is the furthest north yet with the snow and it's an NCEP model so the GFS might follow suit.

[DeepFriedEgg]

@Perturbed Member and @Doinko. Seems like this shifted about 25 miles north down the stretch. That’s why I was worried when we were in the bullseye a day or 2 ago. Seems like it’s always a good bet that these types of systems trend a bit north after they lock in. If we can somehow stay all snow this’ll be a 10 inch storm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New Rod update. He’s going with 3”-8” of snow/sleet mix for PDX tomorrow.

 

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

What year was the 14?

November 2010. Probably the top tier airmass of the 21st century before this monster hit. 

[Doinko]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

@Perturbed Member and @Doinko. Seems like this shifted about 25 miles north down the stretch. That’s why I was worried when we were in the bullseye a day or 2 ago. Seems like it’s always a good bet that these types of systems trend a bit north after they lock in. If we can somehow stay all snow this’ll be a 10 inch storm.

Hopefully it's just the NAM and FV3 doing their own thing. Euro still looks decent

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This would have been top tier and even extra special because of Phil’s strong El Niño…But won’t be very memorable for me years from now like the last 5-6 seasons have been. UNLESS we get something next week, that could change things quite a bit for me. 
But single digits is still quite impressive. 
 

Hope all of the plumbers in NW plumber land are resting up…Because it’s coming! 

I’m of the same viewpoint. Could care less about arctic air if it’s not going to snow.

But there’s more blocking coming later this winter, so plenty of opportunities left.

[OysterPrintout]

The NAM did OK for 1/10/17 so I'm not worried about it until it is statistically likely to be correct again in 2038

[Phil]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

@Perturbed Member and @Doinko. Seems like this shifted about 25 miles north down the stretch. That’s why I was worried when we were in the bullseye a day or 2 ago. Seems like it’s always a good bet that these types of systems trend a bit north after they lock in. If we can somehow stay all snow this’ll be a 10 inch storm.

Yeah, you never want to be in the bullseye that far out. Seldom works out well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing blowing my mind about this cold wave is how a relatively small amount of elevation is making such huge difference.  For instance I-90/SR 18 junction is 11 while North Bend is at 15.  Also a very impressive 13 on an 1100 foot mountain just south of Bellevue.

It was 17 at 200ft 1 mile from my house, got home and it was 14

650ft

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been thinking about this the last few days.  We are getting into very rarified company with some of these stats.  A couple from MBY.

This will be the 4th consecutive winter to have 2 or more freezing max temps.

Third consecutive to have a max below 25

 

Both have not happened in a very long time.

 

I moved to the PNW in 1987 so got to experience the Feb 1989 and Dec 1990 cold snaps. This sort of set my expectations that every few winters there would be something like that. Took me most of the 1990’s before I realized I had unrealistic expectations.

11.7˚F.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There, too? The hemlock carnage in the old growth forest in Stanley Park is just terrible.

Some hemlocks near here literally got fried in the June 2021 heatwave.  Just north of me they had hot and extremely dry winds on the hottest day and it killed the trees.

[MWG]

Exciting weather here in Medford 39F and rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

0z NAM is the furthest north yet with the snow and it's an NCEP model so the GFS might follow suit.

Look at the fv3

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

The NAM did OK for 1/10/17 so I'm not worried about it until it is statistically likely to be correct again in 2038

Both the Euro and the GFS say PDX gets around 5“ and the HRDPS is going for a bit more than that. It is rare for both Euro and GFS to be totally out to lunch (though occasionally it happens). I wouldn’t worry very much unless the 00Z Euro pulls the rug.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd pay money to change our summers.

All it is doing is destroying our forests. All my hemlocks are almost dead on my property. 70 degrees is all we need, maybe a couple weeks of that and the rest can be cloudy and 65 and I'd be in heaven. 

 

 

I’m in the minority but I love our summers as long as the peak temp is only mid 80s. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I moved to the PNW in 1987 so got to experience the Feb 1989 and Dec 1990 cold snaps. This sort of set my expectations that every few winters there would be something like that. Took me most of the 1990’s before I realized I had unrealistic expectations.

11.7˚F.

Yep, at the time I had no idea how rare 1990 was. That's the last time I have seen it snow here at 14 degrees. I also had 75 mph gusts.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m of the same viewpoint. Could care less about arctic air if it’s not going to snow.

But there’s more blocking coming later this winter, so plenty of opportunities left.

I think cold is a bonus. I would prefer snow though.

[Cold Snap]

I’m really hoping this can work out for the Portland folks because I know this thing isn’t trending far enough north to give me snow. It would really suck if Portland missed out because this thing trended slightly too far north at the last minute. This will be insane for the area if it happens. Blowing snow and in the teens for Portland would be crazy.

[SouthHillFrosty]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow the fv3 Jumped north and screws Portland.  Not looking good with this model at least. Just looks to dry though 

 

 

Post it please?

[Doinko]

RGEM looks okay for North metro, around 5-6" here

 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

I’m really hoping this can work out for the Portland folks because I know this thing isn’t trending far enough north to give me snow. It would really suck if Portland missed out because this thing trended slightly too far north at the last minute. This will be insane for the area if it happens. Blowing snow and in the teens for Portland would be crazy.

It’s definitely going to work out for them. It’s wiggled north a bit…but it’s going to be awesome down there. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

RGEM looks okay for North metro, around 5-6" here

 

ICON is similar

 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

If it even is a niña. Next warm pool extension is due any time now (usually happens around solar maximum).

The CFS is all in on a Nina.  The ECMWF shows a sharp drop coming, but not as extreme as the CFS.  The last time I looked at the subsurface profile it was the dead opposite of one year ago.

[GHweatherChris]

Ok, does anyone on here now have a link to a site to look up a locations all time low/high temp including data newer than 2010?

Edited January 13 by GHweatherChris

[Doinko]

GRAF is definitely a step back

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ok, does anyone on here now have a link to a site to look up a locations all time low/high temp including data newer than 2010?

You talking about this one?

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely going to work out for them. It’s wiggled north a bit…but it’s going to be awesome down there. 

I have made my peace with no snow so I'm feeling a bit more generous than usual.  I know the horrible feeling to have something like that ripped away at the last minute.

That having been said I'm no longer certain it won't make it this far north.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ICON is similar

 

WOW… snow is now into southern Pierce county. I expect the GFS to be way south 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some hemlocks near here literally got fried in the June 2021 heatwave.  Just north of me they had hot and extremely dry winds on the hottest day and it killed the trees.

Here it’s more of a double whammy: summers consistently warmer and drier than they used to be plus a hemlock looper moth infestation. The moth larvae have repeatedly defoliated the hemlocks, and due to the drought stress the trees can’t take it anymore.

If summer rainfall and temperatures were more normal, the defoliations would not be killing them. The moths are native to this area and the trees are adapted to recover from them (if they have enough moisture, which they no longer do).

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I always see 2-3 anonymous people on here. Wonder who they could be?