January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, DareDuck said:

About 11” new in Bend today. Total this week up to 19”. Snowing moderately and currently -3. 

SWE must be like 0.04" with that stuff lol. Looks beautiful!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with about 2-4” of sleet and snow here. Unfortunately a lot of our best precip was used up by sleet, but some of it was so fine it’s hard to distinguish from snow anyway. Everything is white outside with some 6-8” drifts in spot. Finally got about a half hour of decent snow with big flakes around sunset just as precip was winding down up here.

An incredibly cold day with a 19/13 spread here. Wind gusts in the 40-50mph range in the late morning and afternoon put windchills in the -5 range or lower. All in all a very impressive day and winter storm.

Wind is currently a bit calmer, and it’s 15 degrees out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16.2˚F.

[RCola]

00z continues the border event theme. Anticipate Euro to follow suit. Looks like a Vancouver special.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Unless models are warming us up to fast. Very possible,  this is a very dense cold airmass in western Washington. 

I know its confusing given the current situation with arctic air in place.   But the arctic air aloft is in middle of the country and heading east by Wednesday.   We have no upper level support left for snow.   The best we can do at the start is freezing rain due to remnant cold trapped at the surface.   Snow with the next system is entirely dependent on being able to pull down some new cold air aloft and some runs are showing that.   The next system is very different than today's storm.   Today was a system plowing right into the heart of the arctic air mass and it did a good job scouring out the upper levels. 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Found a couple -42 readings in Montana already.  Incredible 

Looks like a preliminary reading of -54!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=nathilo&version=0&fmt=reg

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know its confusing given the current situation with arctic air in place.   But the arctic air aloft is in middle of the country and heading east by Wednesday.   We have no upper level support left for snow.   The best we can do at the start is freezing rain due to remnant cold trapped at the surface.   Snow with the next system is entirely dependent on being able to pull down some new cold air aloft and some runs are showing that.  

So we need a stronger, slower moving low, further south

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, RCola said:

00z continues the border event theme. Anticipate Euro to follow suit. Looks like a Vancouver special.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

So we need a stronger, slower moving low, further south

Appears so.

The GEM does the hand off a little too far north and the cold air doesn't really get pushed south.   So we have freezing rain to rain.   A little farther south with that hand off and we will have freezing rain to rain and then snow.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a preliminary reading of -54!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=nathilo&version=0&fmt=reg

Current temps right now. I found minus 42 right now

[skywatcher]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just got an email from PSE.

 

Jackson Prairie went down completely earlier today. Big natural gas facility, supplies a lot of power to the west coast.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pacific-northwest-gas-supply_n_65a329a7e4b06444b2230d94?03p

[TT-SEA]

On the GEM you can see the current arctic air aloft cruising eastward and then a new area of pops up... we need to push that south at least to the border and precip rates can take it from there.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Current temps right now. I found minus 42 right now

Ah okay, impressively cold airmass!

[Cascadia_Wx]

hey guys the upper airmass for this arctic air is moving away from us soon and don’t mind me if I repeat it about 50 more times for some reason 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a current view from Salem. About 2" of sleet. 

[ajreich]

7 minutes ago, skywatcher said:

Jackson Prairie went down completely earlier today. Big natural gas facility, supplies a lot of power to the west coast.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pacific-northwest-gas-supply_n_65a329a7e4b06444b2230d94?03p

Oh crud. That can’t be good. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

hey guys the upper airmass for this arctic air is moving away from us soon and don’t mind me if I repeat it about 50 more times for some reason 

When people stop speculating that it will turn south just like the previous storm did, I will stop mentioning that the arctic air is moving away and is already not nearly so strong at upper levels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

hey guys the upper airmass for this arctic air is moving away from us soon and don’t mind me if I repeat it about 50 more times for some reason 

Hey Jesse, updated numbers reflect a 21/15 day at PDX and 23/17 at SLE. Absolutely astounding. Now that the low has passed our temp has fallen rather quickly down to a new daytime low of 16 after a midnight high of 26. 

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know its confusing given the current situation with arctic air in place.   But the arctic air aloft is in middle of the country and heading east by Wednesday.   We have no upper level support left for snow.   The best we can do at the start is freezing rain due to remnant cold trapped at the surface.   Snow with the next system is entirely dependent on being able to pull down some new cold air aloft and some runs are showing that.   The next system is very different than today's storm.   Today was a system plowing right into the heart of the arctic air mass and it did a good job scouring out the upper levels. 

So that stupid system to our south today screwed us on multiple levels…Grand! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is a current view from Salem. About 2" of sleet. 

Simply lovely. There is nothing like freshly-fallen sleet.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

GEFS not looking great 

A couple good members in there... but overall trended a little north.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When people stop speculating that it will turn south just like the previous storm did, I will stop mentioning that the arctic air is moving away and is already not nearly so strong at upper levels.

If the storm Tuesday night goes south it would allow the digging arctic trough to impact the PNW, not likely, but the reason I would love the storm to trend south. I am aware the warm system from the SW would not cause snowfall even if it came ashore at Brookings. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

So that stupid system to our south today screwed us on multiple levels…Grand! 

Nah... it was going to happen regardless of where that storm went.   

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When people stop speculating that it will turn south just like the previous storm did, I will stop mentioning that the arctic air is moving away and is already not nearly so strong at upper levels.

This.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is a current view from Salem. About 2" of sleet. 

Your drones are everywhere Andrew :0

[skywatcher]

5 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Oh crud. That can’t be good. 

Happened earlier today and we haven't frozen over yet, so I think we're good? Last I heard, restoration in progress.

100% what caused the PSE notice to go out though

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the storm Tuesday night goes south it would allow the digging arctic trough to impact the PNW, not likely, but the reason I would love the storm to trend south. I am aware the warm system from the SW would not cause snowfall even if it came ashore at Brookings. 

Or does the trough digging more because the block over AK still has enough oomph to push it south then cause the storm that forms along its leading edge to go south?  Chicken and egg!    I think upper level patterns drive where storms form and go rather than the other way around.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... it was going to happen regardless of where that storm went.   

Yes the real problem was the anemic pacific ridge

[Omegaraptor]

HIO down to 15!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15.2˚F here. A few degrees warmer than last night.

[Hawksfan2008]

GEPS also worse… need the EPS to keep hope alive 

[bainbridgekid]

Wind Chill briefly dropped to -1 at SEA last night. Not sure when the last time that happened (maybe Nov 2010?)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

GEPS also worse… need the EPS to keep hope alive 

At least we have a Nina coming. 

[Phishy Wx]

49 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just got an email from PSE.

we've been getting those over here with Avista for a couple days now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is going to be a lot of arctic air scooting around by the end of the month. Another bite at the apple? Perhaps. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ukmet looks very promising for northern Washington and SW BC

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ukmet looks very promising for northern Washington and SW BC

Looks similar to the GEM.

[TT-SEA]

Here was 00Z ICON... snow around Portland already happened of course.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Shoveled the area around my snowstick before it started snowing, and now its up to 15" of snow in just 1 day! Currently -5 with a daytime high of -1 and a midnight high of 3.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is going to be a lot of arctic air scooting around by the end of the month. Another bite at the apple? Perhaps. 

Groundhogs day snowstorm, could it be?!