January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Rubus Leucodermis]

No longer just flurries. Light snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, North_County said:

I had the same setup in my previous house that i was renting, and didnt have a generator at the time. I could at least warm up the living room with the power out, so long as i had the pilot light lit (which i generally did from mid-October through March).

Here is your answer, btw:

My place on Bainbridge was like that. Had a propane-fired heater with a thermopile in the living room. Still had heat in the main part of the house when the power went out (which it did fairly often).

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, North_County said:

I had the same setup in my previous house that i was renting, and didnt have a generator at the time. I could at least warm up the living room with the power out, so long as i had the pilot light lit (which i generally did from mid-October through March).

Here is your answer, btw:

Yeah my gas fireplace has a battery backup so it would still work without power. However the blower needs 110 power. When we bought our place 6yrs ago and experienced our first outage we quickly found that the fireplace did very little to heat the house so I added a blower to it, made all the difference in the world and we can heat pretty much most of our 3,000sqft house with it now. Was a super easy install that I did myself. I don’t know how the previous owners kept warm during outages since the main source of heat is our Geothermal system which is not on the generator grid as it requires too much juice. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Everyone better get to work on their apologies...turns out there is a new type of weather that we didn't know about...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/freezing-rain-or-rain-that-freezes-they.html

I have a lot of thoughts about the absolutely ridiculousness of much of this blog. I hope some academics and pros rip him a new one for some of his fails in logic and his pedantic crap. At work so more later. Just wow! This is worse than I thought he would be.

[MossMan]

And back to rain again at work! Wonder if it will switch again at some point today 

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

Also, models have trended nicely dry for the next couple days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Seems rare that my location is doing better than yours with this setup 

first i have ever seen with offshore event like this, i would of got dumped on normally. Pay back is coming for this last week!!

[AbbyJr]

50 minutes ago, Phil said:

What does “like 2016/17” mean?

Little known fact is 2016/17 was not a Niña winter at all. Sure, it started out with a weak Niña low frequency signal, but that collapsed entirely by January.

The second half of that winter featured a hybrid Niño-Costero low frequency signature and +PMM/+PDO signature in the off-equator circulation. It was bizarre and something few expected going into the winter, including myself.

Then, as if nature was intentionally trolling, the niño-costero regime collapsed and inverted into a moderate east-pacific Niña and +PMM during the summer of 2017, which once again caught me off guard.

I remember being extra salty because I never saw that coming, even as it was happening, and that entire summer played out contrary to how I expected it to.

When I said "like 2016/17" I was referring to the persistent cold and snowy pattern. December had an early lengthy cold wave with multiple low elevations snows. January had a few arctic outflow events, and then there was a major snowy pattern in early February with several days of heavy snow. Even March had a low elevation snowfall here in SWBC. The winter seemed to be dominated by high latitude blocking and western troughing. Perhaps I misunderstood you but a while back I recall you mentioned that the sudden crash from the super El Niño in 2015/16 to La Niña was one of the reasons the PNW did so well cold and snow wise in the 2016/17 winter. Since we might crash back into La Niña, I wondered if a similar outcome could unfold.

I'm not sure how one could say it wasn't a La Niña winter when the SST's in the Nino 3.4 region were below normal.

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think you’re wrong.  I’m pretty sure each droplet needs to be checked to make sure it’s below 32F before it can be declared freezing rain.  

Haha. I’ll leave that job to Cliff Mass.

If we acquiesce to his definitions, then I guess you’d call non-supercooled droplets “regular rain that freezes” and supercooled droplets “freezing rain”?

Nah, public would never grasp that. “Supercooled freezing rain” versus “non-supercooled freezing rain”?

Does there also need to be a distinction between non-supercooled droplets that freeze on subfreezing surfaces in above-freezing air, versus non-supercooled droplets that freeze on subfreezing surfaces in subfreezing air? In that case, I suppose “non-supercooled freezing rain” and “non-supercooled rain that freezes” would suffice?

[TT-SEA]

No way of knowing what is happening at home... but power is back on in parts of NB since this site is back up and I like the temp I see there.

[Snoqualmoo]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No way of knowing what is happening at home... but power is back on in parts of NB since this site is back up and I like the temp I see there.

Still no power for me in North Bend, although most of town seems to be back. QFC came on while I was out getting "provisions". I have Tanner though, not PSE, so I don't know if that makes any difference.

[Skagit Weather]

Just transitioned to rain after a couple hours of mixed precip with the temperature up to 34F. There's still a few snowflakes floating down, but I think we're basically done. I think I'm being pretty generous with my measurements, but I'll end up with a 4.5" total over the past two days. Snow has been melting almost the entire time, but it has been beautiful out and was was better than I was expecting at the end of last weekend.

[the_convergence_zone]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. I’ll leave that job to Cliff Mass.

If we acquiesce to his definitions, then I guess you’d call non-supercooled droplets “regular rain that freezes” and supercooled droplets “freezing rain”?

Nah, public would never grasp that. “Supercooled freezing rain” versus “non-supercooled freezing rain”?

Does there also need to be a distinction between non-supercooled droplets that freeze on subfreezing surfaces in above-freezing air, versus non-supercooled droplets that freeze on subfreezing surfaces in subfreezing air? In that case, I suppose “non-supercooled freezing rain” and “non-supercooled rain that freezes” would suffice?

All you need to know is that he has never admitted to being wrong about anything in his life...and in this case he can't blame the weather models because they all showed freezing rain and he can't blame any of the local mets because they all forecasted freezing rain...so......he got creative. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Snoqualmoo said:

Still no power for me in North Bend, although most of town seems to be back. QFC came on while I was out getting "provisions". I have Tanner though, not PSE, so I don't know if that makes any difference.

Is it raining?

[Snoqualmoo]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is it raining?

Still lightly flurrying, with maybe a few wet drops mixed in. it was 31 when I was just in town.

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

When I said "like 2016/17" I was referring to the persistent cold and snowy pattern. December had an early lengthy cold wave with multiple low elevations snows. January had a few arctic outflow events, and then there was a major snowy pattern in early February with several days of heavy snow. Even March had a low elevation snowfall here in SWBC. The winter seemed to be dominated by high latitude blocking and western troughing. Perhaps I misunderstood you but a while back I recall you mentioned that the sudden crash from the super El Niño in 2015/16 to La Niña was one of the reasons the PNW did so well cold and snow wise in the 2016/17 winter. Since we might crash back into La Niña, I wondered if a similar outcome could unfold.

I'm not sure how one could say it wasn't a La Niña winter when the SST's in the Nino 3.4 region were below normal.

It wasn’t the crash in ENSO itself, but the +QBO and augmentation of off-equator NPAC convection (which is associated with -ENSO and +QBO, but also +PMM to some degree) that amplified the Aleutian High throughout the winter.

(Let me know if I’m using too many acronyms, I’m low on time at the moment and rushing a bit).  

If 2024/25 is a healthy Niña, then yes, an amplified Aleutian High and cold PNW winter is likely given the +QBO (and favorable timing of westerly shear).

The exception to that would be if we have an asymmetrical +IOD such as 1999/00. Which for all intents and purposes is what we have now (tho different relations with that in Niño vs Niña winters).

All that being said, the next intradecadal extension of the IPWP is coming soon, so if next winter ends up being a Niña, it’s likely to be a single year event. And +ENSO is likely to dominate the second half of the 2020s.

[Cold Snap]

https://x.com/seattlewxguy/status/1748094211398811816?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA

[Phil]

Gahh. Today’s high of 34°F screwed up what would’ve been a 7-8 day stretch of subfreezing temperatures. Haven’t pulled that off since 2018.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Dangit, today’s high of 34°F screwed up what would’ve been a 7-8 day stretch of subfreezing temperatures. Haven’t pulled that off since 2018.

My longest was 10 days in Dec 2013 in Klamath Falls

[AbbyJr]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

It wasn’t the crash in ENSO itself, but the +QBO and augmentation of off-equator NPAC convection (which is associated with -ENSO and +QBO, but also +PMM to some degree) that amplified the Aleutian High throughout the winter.

(Let me know if I’m using too many acronyms, I’m low on time at the moment and rushing a bit).  

If 2024/25 is a healthy Niña, then yes, an amplified Aleutian High and cold PNW winter is likely given the +QBO (and favorable timing of westerly shear).

The exception to that would be if we have an asymmetrical +IOD such as 1999/00. Which for all intents and purposes is what we have now (tho different relations with that in Niño vs Niña winters).

All that being said, the next intradecadal extension of the IPWP is coming soon, so if next winter ends up being a Niña, it’s likely to be a single year event. And +ENSO is likely to dominate the second half of the 2020s.

No problem Phil, thanks for your explanation. It's all good. While I don't always understand your acronyms, I get the gist of what you are saying. Do you think there is a solid chance the IOD could go negative by next winter so as to avoid a 1999/00 outcome?

[Olive1010]

Can anyone link me to good weather links and resources? 

[Chewbacca Defense]

The end is near in Bellingham.  It’s sleeting IMBY now, and I can tell

by looking at the snow it has rained at some point recently

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

It wasn’t the crash in ENSO itself, but the +QBO and augmentation of off-equator NPAC convection (which is associated with -ENSO and +QBO, but also +PMM to some degree) that amplified the Aleutian High throughout the winter.

(Let me know if I’m using too many acronyms, I’m low on time at the moment and rushing a bit).  

If 2024/25 is a healthy Niña, then yes, an amplified Aleutian High and cold PNW winter is likely given the +QBO (and favorable timing of westerly shear).

The exception to that would be if we have an asymmetrical +IOD such as 1999/00. Which for all intents and purposes is what we have now (tho different relations with that in Niño vs Niña winters).

All that being said, the next intradecadal extension of the IPWP is coming soon, so if next winter ends up being a Niña, it’s likely to be a single year event. And +ENSO is likely to dominate the second half of the 2020s.

We’ve been on such a good roll it wouldn’t surprise me if we had a Niña that was dominated by a raging jet.  Been awhile since we’ve had a massive snowpack. 

[SnowySeeker50]

16 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

https://x.com/seattlewxguy/status/1748094211398811816?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA

Cliff will say anything to not admit he's wrong. Hard for him to say the roads were warm this time around so he went with the warm rain argument instead.

[Snownerd3000]

17 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

https://x.com/seattlewxguy/status/1748094211398811816?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA

Lol I came here to share this. Knew it would go over well lol. 

[LowerGarfield]

Snowing pretty good here but there's a lot of water content which doesn't bode well for the ice storm tonight or tomorrow. If it's really bad I'll have my son stay home from school.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm still having freezing rain 🌧

[The Blob]

Down to 31 from 34 this morning. The ice has been building back up. 

Thankfully I have an awesome manager who is giving us the night off and let our dayshift go home early.

[MossMan]

It’s coming!!!!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!!!!! 

My phone says I should get 3.2 cm of snow today.

Yesterday, it said I should get 24 cm and I actually got 30. So by that ratio I am due for 4 cm.

[Christensen87]

The whole event was so disappointing for us around the Sound. It was looking to be so great. Oh well. Anyway, now back to our regularly scheduled January programming. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

31.6F ice beads forming on tree branches.

[westcoastexpat]

Snowing here again! Looking forward to picking up a couple additional inches after yesterday's storm before turning to rain overnight 

[DeepFriedEgg]

I cannot believe KPDX is only at 36F. Even I am hovering around freezing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If i got as much snow as the FUCKKING GFS said this year i'd be sledding on the moon!!

[Parrot]

33F and raining here fml

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

13 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

The whole event was so disappointing for us around the Sound. It was looking to be so great. Oh well. Anyway, now back to our regularly scheduled January programming. 

From Shelton through Olympia and up to Everett is was a non event besides the cold temps.  It still was neat to see and good to see because this proves we can still get it done with the ultra extreme cold. Even if the sound could of grabbed a few inches in the beginning it would of been awesome.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

https://x.com/seattlewxguy/status/1748094211398811816?s=46&t=wti5sHI_eE4tVdzY0rtEQA

 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My phone says I should get 3.2 cm of snow today.

Yesterday, it said I should get 24 cm and I actually got 30. So by that ratio I am due for 4 cm.

We have literally no idea what those amounts mean. 

[sherwoodor]

12 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I cannot believe KPDX is only at 36F. Even I am hovering around freezing.

We're at 33*, I understand there is a lot that effects temps, but with the sunlight quickly fading, I'm having a hard time believing we wont drop another 1-2*...