January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m just not seeing the potential for a cold pattern on that frame. Appreciate the enthusiasm but I think there’s room for growth here in terms of pattern interpretation.

Maybe a gif would help? Alaska ridge is being pumped up at that frame and cold air is already close and headed south. At least looks chilly. Obviously it’s not the classic setup. You might be right, I am a total amateur 

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m just not seeing the potential for a cold pattern on that frame. Appreciate the enthusiasm but I think there’s room for growth here in terms of pattern interpretation.

You are right control doesn’t get there. Does get chilly.

[Phil]

58 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Goa ridge developes in ensembles,  should give PNW a chance.

During the 2nd half of niño winters, that undercutting STJ/trough beneath the Canadian ridge is indeed the easiest way to achieve cold anomalies.

So it’s worth watching, at least. Getting the vortex out of Alaska is integral to that evolution, though.

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, iFred said:

2nd best snow experience in my life.

Pales in comparison to Feb 2010 but it’s definitely in my top-5 in terms of excitement (and my 2nd largest single-storm snowfall).

34” in 24hrs. 3rd pic has cars buried entirely, only other times I saw that was in 2010 and 2003 (I don’t remember enough of 1996).

[LowerGarfield]

48 minutes ago, iFred said:

2nd best snow experience in my life.

How was Judah that year?

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Maybe a gif would help? Alaska ridge is being pumped up at that frame and cold air is already close and headed south. At least looks chilly. Obviously it’s not the classic setup. You might be right, I am a total amateur 

GOA troughing (+EPO/+NP) can look crazy at 500mb but isn’t a conduit to cold (especially in niño winters). That pattern actively works against the advection of polar air into the region, and guidance is usually too aggressive with the marine polar air associated with them as well.

[AbbyJr]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

During the 2nd half of niño winters, that undercutting STJ/trough beneath the Canadian ridge is indeed the easiest way to achieve cold anomalies.

So it’s worth watching, at least. Getting the vortex out of Alaska is integral to that evolution, though.

There is a good chance the PNW could get chilly in mid to late February but I'd be surprised to see any legit arctic air.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

GOA troughing (+EPO/+NP) can look crazy at 500mb but isn’t a conduit to cold (especially in niño winters). That pattern actively works against the advection of polar air into the region, and guidance is usually too aggressive with the marine polar air associated with them as well.

I see now why it’s not a good lead up to Arctic air thank you.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How was Judah that year?

He was salty af  

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

There is a good chance the PNW could get chilly in mid to late February but I'd be surprised to see any legit arctic air.

I never say never, but it’ll be a challenge. Then again, so was January so who knows?

Best way to pull off another miracle would be a retrograding Canadian ridge, from W-Canada to Alaska, with MJO transitioning from W-Hem back to E-Hem, in tandem with inception of -NAO (to avoid a +TNH type outcome like 2015).

[Blizzard777]

Lol….looking at the cool ice formations in the gorge I spotted these two!  
Wet out currently  

49* 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Im so tired of this worthless winter. Either give us sun or snow. We had a good week and a half of weather and now we're back to garbage. All I ask for is a good Monday and Tuesday of widespread sunny weather without high Avalanche danger or extreme winds, that way I can do my annual winter summit of south sister and mt hood. Yet to happen so far, and now I'm getting worried if it will ever happen.

 

42° currently, snow depth of about 13", but it's hard to tell, because of snowdrifts.

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Uuuugggly pattern. Hopefully we have something decent to start tracking within a week or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

57 at EUG

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Back to only 24 members on now. What a difference 10 days makes.

57F with moderate rain.

[Slushy Inch]

24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Back to only 24 members on now. What a difference 10 days makes.

57F with moderate rain.

And long range isn’t even that bad. Maybe with some further improvements we can get the user count back up

[Phishy Wx]

Torchfest '24

tickets available on Stubhub

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Torchfest '24

tickets available on Stubhub

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Pales in comparison to Feb 2010 but it’s definitely in my top-5 in terms of excitement (and my 2nd largest single-storm snowfall).

34” in 24hrs. 3rd pic has cars buried entirely, only other times I saw that was in 2010 and 2003 (I don’t remember enough of 1996).

Reminds me of 08 here.  I didn't get that much in 24 hours but total depth once we got to Christmas day we had that or more on the ground.  God I need to see a stretch like that again.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Reminds me of 08 here.  I didn't get that much in 24 hours but total depth once we got to Christmas day we had that or more on the ground.  God I need to see a stretch like that again.

Yeah that 08/09 - 10/11 stretch had some crazy blocking. Would pay a lot of money to experience another winter like 2009/10.

[Doinko]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that 08/09 - 10/11 stretch had some crazy blocking. Would pay a lot of money to experience another winter like 2009/10.

How much snow did you get from each of the individual big storms that winter, in Dec and the two Feb ones?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Back to only 24 members on now. What a difference 10 days makes.

57F with moderate rain.

BSF.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Back to only 24 members on now. What a difference 10 days makes.

57F with moderate rain.

Still 300 guests. Come join us!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crappy 18z run. #Philwazrite

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Im so tired of this worthless winter. Either give us sun or snow. We had a good week and a half of weather and now we're back to garbage. All I ask for is a good Monday and Tuesday of widespread sunny weather without high Avalanche danger or extreme winds, that way I can do my annual winter summit of south sister and mt hood. Yet to happen so far, and now I'm getting worried if it will ever happen.

42° currently, snow depth of about 13", but it's hard to tell, because of snowdrifts.

Cheer up! You might get blessed with a 60-burger in a week!

And a 70-burger for Roseburg!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cheer up! You might get blessed with a 60-burger in a week!

And a 70-burger for Roseburg!

Horrific conditions. I'll be in Oklahoma thank goodness!

[Randyc321]

I am 

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Back to only 24 members on now. What a difference 10 days makes.

57F with moderate rain.

It's always worth popping ion here for a minute at least each day.  Its an easy way to see if anything good is coming down the pike.  

49.6 w/ broken clouds.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cheer up! You might get blessed with a 60-burger in a week!

And a 70-burger for Roseburg!

nice, I might get a 55 burger, except i'll be in PA

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Horrific conditions. I'll be in Oklahoma thank goodness!

You can run but you can’t hide.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

nice, I might get a 55 burger, except i'll be in PA

Southeastern?

[Mercurial]

I would love some 50 burgers if I didn’t have 2 feet of dirty slop piled up everywhere.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Southeastern?

lol yeah, 1/30 - 2/2

 

think I'll bring some shorts.  gunna get me a 60 burger one way or another

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 1/20/2024 at 12:55 PM, Ken in Wood Village said:

We finally got power back a little over an hour ago. I went to my friend's place (which I normally visit on Saturday's) and took a nice hot shower. Roads are not bad but the side streets are still not the greatest, especially the hill I have to go up to to go home. Temperature is 34.5° and hoping it will go higher. I'm done with this cold and freezing rain stuff. I hope we don't have this freezing rain for awhile

That’s the first thing I did, take a nice hot shower/bath. I love cold wintry weather and windstorms so I definitely got my moneys worth with this event that lasted a solid week. Losing power and having to sleep a couple nights with no heat made me appreciate this Arctic Blast and the power of the Columbia Gorge. I have no idea how the Native Kalapuyans were able to survive weather like this with the ice, frigid temps and strong winds. That’s about as brutal as it can get but I bet they knew if there was ice then the warm tongue would be close by so they likely moved south. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol yeah, 1/30 - 2/2

 

think I'll bring some shorts.  gunna get me a 60 burger one way or another

Looks like temperatures crash by the 30th.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like temperatures crash by the 30th.

Pack for all seasons!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wet.

I haven’t looked at the models recently but it looks like we’re headed into a warmer and wetter pattern which makes sense after an Arctic Blast. Parts of the PNW are still in a drought so we need as much rain as we can get. Especially since I’m thinking this warm season could be one of the hottest ever in the PNW.

[SouthHillFrosty]

My roof sprung leaks in 3 different spots this weekend. Roof is less five years old and this is the 3rd roof repair already. I think I got a lemon

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I haven’t looked at the models recently but it looks like we’re headed into a warmer and wetter pattern which makes sense after an Arctic Blast. Parts of the PNW are still in a drought so we need as much rain as we can get. Especially since I’m thinking this warm season could be one of the hottest ever in the PNW.

Pity it’s gonna torch so hard there won’t be much snow in the mountains.

[Prairiedog]

On 1/21/2024 at 1:46 PM, Andstorm said:

Mark Nelson, one of our foremost weather experts in Portland area, used to always post on his blog how legit cold/snow events are virtually impossible after Feb 15. The data largely supports his assertion but recent years have majorly bucked that trend. Last year was especially damning to the theory since we had a couple days in late Feb that didn’t make it out of 20s, which Mark and many others claimed was a near physical impossibility with longer days and higher sun angle. I think it takes a particular pattern for mid to late Feb cold/snow but it can definitely happen. I read somewhere that there are certain conditions that are better for cold/snow in feb - colder upper levels, better snow cover - than earlier in winter but the longer days and sun angle tend to offset. Perhaps others cal elaborate. 

 

Pretty certain he's never said, "virtually impossible".  He knows the stats for our area and has lived here long enough to know how our climate works and how it's changed some.  I've lived here all my life and have seen a number of snow events the last 73 years of my life living below 500', albeit those event's are pretty short and sloppy most of the time.  He has said many times that it's "increasingly difficult" (which is true) but it does snow obviously after the 15th. He knows that.   That's different than virtually impossible or physically impossible.  And yes, sun angles suck after mid Feb. 

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My roof sprung leaks in 3 different spots this weekend. Roof is less five years old and this is the 3rd roof repair already. I think I got a lemon

Seems like everything these days are just made and done cheaply these days unfortunately. Hopefully you have some sort of warranty still?