January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Phishy Wx]

ok ok

 

I'm all in now, I'm convinced.  region wide blizzard incoming

 

we're gunna reverse jinx this thing into existence

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd also mention March 1966 had a -3.0 departure at SLE above average precip and two minor snow events. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty prolonged cold anoms there.  How is that possible?

Because it ebbs and flows in Nino years just like it does in Nina years.   Guessing the second half of February is going to be pretty spring-like. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

ok ok

 

I'm all in now, I'm convinced.  region wide blizzard incoming

 

we're gunna reverse jinx this thing into existence

Didn’t see anyone calling for that. But sticking a fork in winter in late January is always dangerous territory. Even Mark Nelsen eventually learned this lesson.

Its ironic coming from you too considering you live in one of the coldest spots in the region represented on this forum.

[Phishy Wx]

maybe?

 

 

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Wow there has been a lot of comments this morning, I guess it's coming? 

[Phil]

In fact the stability of the precursor/loading pattern in Siberia/Eurasia is why the GEFS/GEPS/EPS are in such good agreement at D15 (quite atypical at that range).

All maintain the high AAM pattern initially, which culminates in a strong Aleutian low mid-Feb as the MJO evacuates the IPWP. There’s basically no other source of variability present, so there really isn’t anything to derail it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

maybe?

 

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

In fact the stability of the precursor/loading pattern in Siberia/Eurasia is why the GEFS/GEPS/EPS are in such good agreement at D15 (quite atypical at that range).

All maintain the high AAM pattern which culminates in a strong Aleutian low mid-month as the MJO evacuates the IPWP.

Yeah but you also said it was impossible for us to get arctic air in mid-January but it ended up being one of our best blasts in decades so you’re wrong about everything now.

[FroYoBro]

64 here. Surprised to see pdx still hanging on at 50 degrees. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

64 here. Surprised to see pdx still hanging on at 50 degrees. 

Barf react for first sentence. Heart react for second.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah but you also said it was impossible for us to get arctic air in mid-January but it ended up being one of our best blasts in decades so you’re wrong about everything now.

Never said impossible, but hyperbole is fun.  

It was indeed an unlikely evolution that required a reflective, bottom-up SSW timed with a cycle of destructive interference in the tropics (big AAM drop/jet retraction) but it was never “impossible”.

This go around it is perfectly inverted (strengthening vortex, high AAM, constructive interference in the tropics). Much more straightforward from a subseasonal forecasting perspective.

Don’t shoot the messenger, man. I don’t control the weather, am just pointing out what is already happening.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Never said impossible, but hyperbole is fun.  

It was indeed an unlikely evolution that required a reflective, bottom-up SSW timed with a cycle of destructive interference in the tropics (big AAM drop/jet retraction) but it was never impossible.

This go around it is inverted (strengthening vortex, high AAM, constructive interference in the tropics). Much more straightforward.

Don’t shoot the messenger, I don’t control the weather. Am just pointing out what is already happening.

I never knew you felt this way  

[TT-SEA]

I have to save screenshots of all this hyperbolic complaining about a couple warm days following an epic arctic blast.    The same people would be all over anyone complaining about a couple chilly days after an epic July heat wave.    So much irony.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Only 52.7˚F here. I feel left out.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have to save screenshots of all this hyperbolic complaining about a couple warm days following an epic arctic blast.    The same people would be all over anyone complaining about a couple chilly days after an epic July heat wave.    So much irony.   

Gorgeous 50 (and some 60) burgers for everyone

 

  

[TT-SEA]

All this complaining for a January that will likely end up colder and wetter than normal during a Nino.   The Portland area has been crazy wet.    Can just hear the mocking by a couple people if anyone dared complain about a couple chilly days in a warmer/drier than normal July.    So much irony.  

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd also mention March 1966 had a -3.0 departure at SLE above average precip and two minor snow events. 

I’m not writing March off yet, either.

And I suppose if all you’re looking for is a 7-10 day stretch of moderately cool/dry weather then February isn’t a write-off, either. The flip to ridgy/+PNA pattern doesn’t happen until mid-Feb. First half of the month may very well run a negative departure.

And the second half of Feb probably won’t be as warm at the surface as the current pattern since it’ll be more of a meridional setup (dry ridging, no vortex in Alaska or warm atmospheric river like there is currently).

Just in case I’d mistakenly given the impression I’m calling for another massive torch like the current one. I don’t think it will be nearly as awful in terms of surface temperature departures.

[Andstorm]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never said impossible, but hyperbole is fun.  

It was indeed an unlikely evolution that required a reflective, bottom-up SSW timed with a cycle of destructive interference in the tropics (big AAM drop/jet retraction) but it was never “impossible”.

This go around it is perfectly inverted (strengthening vortex, high AAM, constructive interference in the tropics). Much more straightforward from a subseasonal forecasting perspective.

Don’t shoot the messenger, man. I don’t control the weather, am just pointing out what is already happening.

playing a bit of catch up here. Are you suggesting a potentially cold/active pattern mid month for west or just CONUS generally? 

[LowerGarfield]

62F outside.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All this complaining for a January that will likely end up colder and wetter than normal during a Nino.   The Portland area has been crazy wet.    Can just hear the mocking by a couple people if anyone dared complain about a couple chilly days in a warmer/drier than normal July.    So much irony.  

It will not be colder here. That’s a bummer given that we broke a lengthy streak without back to back sub-freezing highs.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All this complaining for a January that will likely end up colder and wetter than normal during a Nino.   The Portland area has been crazy wet.    Can just hear the mocking by a couple people if anyone dared complain about a couple chilly days in a warmer/drier than normal July.    So much irony.  

below normal snow though for a lot of folks here.  I know that's also a big measuring stick for some

[Tyler Mode]

63 here.  51 when I crossed the interstate bridge though.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

playing a bit of catch up here. Are you suggesting a potentially cold/active pattern mid month for west or just CONUS generally? 

First half of Feb modestly cool/dry in the PNW but more active in CA thanks to the STJ.

Second half of Feb more typical +PNA (Aleutian low/western ridge) drier in CA and still dry in the PNW region. This probably lasts into early/mid March.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not writing March off yet, either.

And I suppose if all you’re looking for is a 7-10 day stretch of moderately cool/dry weather then February isn’t a write-off, either. The flip to ridgy/+PNA pattern doesn’t happen until mid-Feb. First half of the month may very well run a negative departure.

And the second half of Feb probably won’t be as warm at the surface as the current pattern since it’ll be more of a meridional setup (dry ridging, no vortex in Alaska or warm atmospheric river like there is currently).

Just in case I’d mistakenly given the impression I’m calling for another massive torch like the current one. I don’t think it will be nearly as awful in terms of surface temperature departures.

Sort of my sense as well.    Nice thing about the second half of February is that we are past the inversion season and sunny days under ridging aren't as chilly as they can be from the middle of November through the end of January.  

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m going to escape into the refrigerated Gorge today to check out the storm damage/try to forget this ugly torch is even happening.

 

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Three whole days of this crap to go too. A surreal hellscape out there.

 

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm 2000 miles away, it's sunny and in the mid-40s... 

 

Escaping low to mid 60s.     But if someone wants to go east of the Cascades in the summer when we have literally the exact same weather... well that is worth years of mocking.   No one ever does that.     Ohhhh the irony.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

60s is hellish for Jesse

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

60s is hellish for Jesse

I don't care what he likes... just pointing out the blatant double standard.    

[Omegaraptor]

67 at EUG

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

60s is hellish for Jesse

just wait until he discovers 70s!!!!!!!

[MossMan]

56.3

[Phishy Wx]

55, Cloudy.  I think the record today is 58

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

just wait until he discovers 70s!!!!!!!

The person mocking the loudest when other people complain about weather they don't like is also the biggest complainer about weather he doesn't like.   Even in a January that featured a cold/snow event beyond his wildest expectation during a Nino!    Interesting.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

55, Cloudy.  I think the record today is 58

Hopefully they can stay overcast and avoid the record.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

67 at EUG

Both Euro and NAM deny EUG a 70-burger today.

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The person mocking the loudest when other people complain about weather they don't like is also the biggest complainer about weather he doesn't like.   Even in a January that featured a cold/snow event beyond his wildest expectation during a Nino!    Interesting.    

I just think we should all try to be tolerant about what different people like and dislike 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Lol.  Lots of passive aggressiveness on here.

Can't get over how accurate dewey's long-standing signature is for this place.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I just think we should all try to be tolerant about what different people like and dislike 

Could not agree more.  

[snow_wizard]

Graph Cast is back on team cold.  Even that model has been all over the place due to the complexity of the setup.  This run rigs the trough very nicely.

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

just wait until he discovers 70s!!!!!!!

70s in the summer are gorgeous.