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February 2024 Weather in the PNW


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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been three of them here since then. 4/11/2022, 2/22/2023 , and 1/13/2024. 

Snowfall wise, Seattle is probably the worst inland place in Western WA. 

Seattle is easily better than Fife or Puyallup. Especially north Seattle, which at least can get in on CZ action sometimes.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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That little high latitude piece the models have been showing at the top of the offshore ridge is getting stronger in the home stretch.  It causes the trough to dig more sharply.

1708927200-cFOcGJa4BVg.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Seattle is easily better than Fife or Puyallup. Especially north Seattle, which at least can get in on CZ action sometimes.

Historically Seattle is decent actually.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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North wind makes it to Seattle on this run.

1709024400-F6iKVgQwh0k.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Also frazer outflow Monday night

WTF?  I thought it was insane to mention that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s very possible this summer we see the most apocalyptic fire season in modern history hit the Cascades. 

Or the least active fire season in more than a decade.  We saw it's more about lightning (and human) caused fires in the middle of summer.  You can't have fire without a spark.

 

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Much of this falls as snow over King County!

1709035200-Hf5TqEIEzNU.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Christensen87 said:

Druncle doing Druncle things! 

This is actually a possible outcome based on model trends the last several runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A King County special.

1709067600-wAzpOYfhyGY.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Also, with our normally cool and wet antecedent background conditions coming out of spring, it takes way more than just a few dry weeks to put us in a bad spot for fire. There’s a lot wrong with this post, and it very predictably shifts the blame away from the nice 🌞 elephant in the room, which are the scorching hot, early starting summers that quickly zap whatever snowpack we do have then drag on forever. That has been the single biggest culprit in the bad fire seasons this past decade.

I think we mostly agree except on snowpack. 

For snowpack, correlation does not equal causation. Peak spring snowpack has almost nothing to do with wildfire risk. Wildfires can burn through areas within 2 weeks of snowpack melt out. I have seen talks given on this at professional conferences, there is evidence of it happening. Low snowpack this year means nothing if it ends up being a wet summer with a lack of major lightning events and a lack of a strong easterly wind event before rainy season hits in September. High snowpack is often eviscerated by a warm and sunny spring. 

Low snowpack is very bad for many other reasons. I've very concerned that our summer temperatures are over 2 C warmer in the past decade than any previous decade. I can see the red cedar trees dying in my neighborhood. I don't know what else to say...

 

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Alrighty then!

1709100000-wNW07pKjyaw.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Way better run to say the least.  Trough hangs on a bit longer as well.  The trend toward more back digging continues.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

it will be near 60 thursday. For like 45 minutes lol.

Actually its the cold air that moves out really quick.  ;)

Still could be a short window of opportunity for snow though!  

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-1708538400-1708905600-1709262000-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

lol of course right after I move east 

It will trend north anyway! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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ITS COMING!!! All we need is it to trend a little more south of the 18z with a bit more precip, then it's a touchdown! Those of yall in Seattle don't even want it to trend south, you just need more precip than the 18z is calling for. I know it's the drunkle, but in the short/mid range it's usually a little less drunk, so I think this outcome has potential. This event is very close to greatness!

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A low snowpack and the chance of yet another early starting, long, and hot summer this year (at least no transplants will be packing their bags!) stacks the deck in favor of a bad fire season. 

More transplant talk... its dominates your every thought.  Have you considered becoming one yourself?  Sitka is calling you.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A little FraSer outflow would increase the likelihood of some overrunning snow middle of next week.  It is looking more and more likely that we quickly transition to a more mild and wet pattern later next week.  
 

I think a few people will do pretty well in western Washington early next week with that cold showery airmass and likely a PSCZ or 2.  Probably mossdude 

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26 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think we mostly agree except on snowpack. 

For snowpack, correlation does not equal causation. Peak spring snowpack has almost nothing to do with wildfire risk. Wildfires can burn through areas within 2 weeks of snowpack melt out. I have seen talks given on this at professional conferences, there is evidence of it happening. Low snowpack this year means nothing if it ends up being a wet summer with a lack of major lightning events and a lack of a strong easterly wind event before rainy season hits in September. High snowpack is often eviscerated by a warm and sunny spring. 

Low snowpack is very bad for many other reasons. I've very concerned that our summer temperatures are over 2 C warmer in the past decade than any previous decade. I can see the red cedar trees dying in my neighborhood. I don't know what else to say...

 

The interplay between snowpack and wildfire was my main area of study at your rival state university, so it’s not like I’m making this stuff up. It all goes together. A large snowpack that peaks at a normal time and melts at a normal rate would suggest at least average temps in the spring, as opposed to the latter half of April kickoff to summer we’ve all gotten used to more often than not in recent years. Obviously weather conditions during the summer play a role too, but even with our typically mostly dry 2-3 months a year, high soil moisture content and healthier, less stressed vegetation brought about by a robust peak snowpack can play a role in mitigating fire conditions.

And I don’t want to seem cynical, but your “concern” over our warming summers seems a little empty when just yesterday it sounded like you wouldn’t even be living in the region anymore if we backslid toward more average warm seasons at any point.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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This run is way better down here too. The next trough still digs to far west.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

lol of course right after I move east 

That would figure.  I lived in Cle Elum for the winter of 1981-82 and I was actually mad I missed the big snow in Seattle that January in spite of having tons of snow where I was.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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GFS surface temps should always be taken with a grain of salt, but Monday night definitely trended way colder the last three runs.

 

trend-gfs-2024022112-f150.sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_wa.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

5in for SeaTac on this run. Def a regional run!!!

221241.png

22124.png

The cold gets pretty legit Monday night.  Still room for that to improve a tad more as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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hmmmmm

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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There have actually been a number of runs on both the GFS and ECMWF that show snow in King County Monday Night.  Very real chance it will happen.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More transplant talk... its dominates your every thought.  Have you considered becoming one yourself?  Sitka is calling you.  

A bit too early to be transplanting into the garden right now.  Especially some of those tender tropical plants. 😈 

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On 2/20/2024 at 9:28 AM, snow_wizard said:

Can't believe I'm 60 today!  I used to think that was old....

Age is nothing but a number. You’re only halfway there. As long as you take care of yourself you got tons of life left. Plus with medical technology in the decades to come humans will be able to live longer.

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