February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

4 day snow totals at hour 213.  Looks pretty real.  850s hover around -7 over SEA for a good period of time.

That has MBY BP (beyond Pepto) though some (and probably most) of that is terrain bleed. Still cautiously optimistic about padding my total.

And I'm in the process of moving, so Murphy is on the side of snow.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

It’s coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Currently at 14.4" IMBY so I'm beating both of you!

I’m at only 10”, all in January in the cold onshore flow before the arctic intrusion. Next week could be decent if things keep trending in a positive direction. This is our snowiest time of year. 

[Doinko]

Started snowing around this time a year ago. At this point parts of Portland already had received a foot of snow, so I was bit disappointed when we had 2" from the first wave and precip stopped. But then some extremely heavy snow overnight brought us up to 6-7" of powdery snow. And then a subfreezing high on the 23rd!

 

[ShawniganLake]

47 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That has MBY BP (beyond Pepto) though some (and probably most) of that is terrain bleed. Still cautiously optimistic about padding my total.

And I'm in the process of moving, so Murphy is on the side of snow.

Moving far?  

[Tanis Leach]

60 burger at Sherwood today. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm at 49"! I would assume nobody on this forum has gotten more this season, right? Usually AlTahoe would have me beat, but not this year.

Nope, I've had it between 75 and 80.  But my area averages 94 inches, so it's usually unfair to compare Leavenworth to other areas.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Moving far?  

Permanently moving out of my condo in Bellingham now that I have a PR card. Going to be staying at my current place in Kensington - Cedar Cottage for the time being.

[The Blob]

A whole 180 from this time last year.

[Tanis Leach]

Since I wasn't on here a year ago, I'll post my pics from last year's snow. Oh, and crazy me ran 8.5 miles the day after. 9" in Sherwood that storm fell, 7" is what was settled (I did hourly measurements and noted some loss to blowing). The night pics were about 1/3 through (2 am)

It was only 1 of 3 times I pulled an all lighter (grad night and a flight to Paris that got delayed was the other 2). 

Also, I believe a good chunk of you called a snowstorm, but using my forecast videos, it did feel odd trying to go off alone compared to the TV forecasts (but not here), and sticking to my guns after E. Metro got the deformation band/convergence zone in saying Washington/NE Yamhill County will have their turn from 11-7. In all fairness, while I forecasted that convergence zone/deformation band well ahead of time (48 hours), I underdid precip maxes (said 3-7" in the main zone with the 48 and 24 hour notice, 4-9" with isolated to 12" was my day of adjustment) and completly missed the east metro area (even though I was more aggressive than TV, saying 1-3" vs the consensus 0-1"). Never used the snow maps on that event since on a stalled low, they're useless anyways. A good blip in the middle of (then) depression. 

 

Edit: recap video I made: 

 

Edited February 23 by Tanis Leach

[Slushy Inch]

Icon and NAM better. Icons now spins up a low pressure.

[Cold Snap]

Getting into NAM range now! NAM is showing a little convergence zone over the King/Snohomish county border.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Anyone got the high res Cliff Model?

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Anyone got the high res Cliff Model?

Not out yet.

[Slushy Inch]

Icon gif.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Icon gif.

00Z ICON actually shows less snow than its 12Z run.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ICON actually shows less snow than its 12Z run.

I know.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh look a wet blanket. I mean Tim.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ICON actually shows less snow than its 12Z run.

Less than basically nothing is really bad.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Less than basically nothing is really bad.

Less in the mountains too.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm so confused... That first trough still looks great? With lots of marginal snow chances. Were people on this forum rooting for the models to send that deep Arctic air into the region? And that's why people are mumbling about a "rug pull"? Becuase from my eye, and I've been paying attention for a few days, models haven't really changed at all from yesterday, at least for Washington. Definitely not for Jim. Maybe some waffling in the precip/sfc pressure department but we all know those specifics are a coin flip more than a few days out.

Mountains look to get some decent insurance right on time at the end of the season. The second trough in the LR is highly up for debate and could be subject to Niño-fication as it approaches the short range, perhaps trending towards more GOA-spillage and the reintroduction of BSF into our region. But the move towards relatively colder MAMs in recent years makes me believe the big carving out trough solution could be real.

You're seriously wrong about one thing here.  The GFS and ECMWF had consistently shown a very good snow chance here Monday night and that is now gone.  For some people the changes are no big deal.  For here it's a really big deal.  Please remember I watch this stuff like a hawk.  That is particularly true for my general area.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh look a wet blanket. I mean Tim.

Nah... that is definitely your specialty.   

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Less in the mountains too.

Yeah.  I would be stunned if the North Interior is that snow starved though.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You're seriously wrong about one thing here.  The GFS and ECMWF had consistently shown a very good snow chance here Monday night and that is now gone.  For some people the changes are no big deal.  For here it's a really big deal.  Please remember I watch this stuff like a hawk.  That is particularly true for my general area.

Chances on the north peninsula have increased each run

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Nope, I've had it between 75 and 80.  But my area averages 94 inches, so it's usually unfair to compare Leavenworth to other areas.

Comparing it to anywhere west of the Cascades (other than the Olympics) is absurd.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Chances on the north peninsula have increased each run

Yeah.

Just a flat out bummer here this winter.  Sometimes I just detest this area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range icon is improving. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Long range icon is improving. 

I still have some hope for the second trough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I still have some hope for the second trough.

Massive improvements so far today!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still have some hope for the second trough.

The SW flow of the second wave favors you and not me. You could still score something 

[MossMan]

Massive conflicting reports today! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Massive conflicting reports today! 

It's just the change in details sucks balls for my area.  You should be fine.  I can't imagine the ICON being right about no snow at all.

[MWG]

Classic spring like weather the past couple of days and the rest of this week around here. Low 60's for the next couple of days until Monday when it will be raining and possible snow during the night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first trough has been watered down a little here, at least on the GFS. But we should still be good for an inch or two of slop. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Nope, I've had it between 75 and 80.  But my area averages 94 inches, so it's usually unfair to compare Leavenworth to other areas.

Well that's only like 5 more inches than what I average, so i would say it is fair to compare.

[Happy Valley 896]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Nope, I've had it between 75 and 80.  But my area averages 94 inches, so it's usually unfair to compare Leavenworth to other areas.

So far 169" at my winter home in Government Camp.  Reading posts on this forum from people far more knowledgeable than I, it sounds like we may get a couple more feet next week.

[TT-SEA]

One of big stories next week might end up being heavy rain.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

One of big stories next week might end up being heavy rain.  

The good LORD knows we need it. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

One of big stories next week might end up being heavy rain.  

I’m only in the green. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The good LORD knows we need it. 

Definitely help the parched lawns and trees and knock the down the fire threat for a couple weeks.