March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF says snow the next two mornings.

Moderate snow here now. Really picking up! Ground turning white under this intense band 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Where does that Monday system go on the euro?

Pretty weak and disorganized. Technically the mouth of the Columbia I guess

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Got down to 29 this morning with 6” of additional snowfall since midnight. 31 with sunbreaks now. Just under 20” since 5a Thursday. 

How are your sheep doing Andrew 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

You’d think Chris being close to the coast would make snow tougher there…but something I’ve learned over the years is he can actually do a lot better than me sometimes! 

I think he’s in a sweet spot where he’s just tucked enough into the coastal hills with some elevation to avoid being too moderated, but also fully exposed to ample moisture with little in the way of shadowing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How are your sheep doing Andrew 

Cold but good. Extra alfalfa on these snowy mornings. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Temps are much more reasonable this period. Probably still going to take a bit of elevation but this could be real. 

Tomorrow night will be snow almost to sea level if the moisture actually arrives.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think he’s in a sweet spot where he’s just tucked enough into the coastal hills with some elevation to avoid being too moderated, but also fully exposed to ample moisture with little in the way of shadowing.

He gets easterly winds from the interior also.  A very poor man's gorge effect.

[Cloud]

Last 2 winters have yielded a fat F from me for my area. 
 

- This year, less than a trace and a dry cold snap. 
- Last year, less than 2” total snow. 

Brutal, especially seeing the surrounding areas did well. 

[RentonHill]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I’ve given up hope. And Tim’s EPS has me excited for summer fun! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty weak and disorganized. Technically the mouth of the Columbia I guess

 

Could be some chilly highs in W Oregon on Monday. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

He gets easterly winds from the interior also.  A very poor man's gorge effect.

Yes. The Chehalis Gap works both ways. Gives his location access to air from the interior that some coastal location are blocked from. The Astoria area benefits from a similar effect along the lower Columbia.

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS still sticking with big pattern change by week 2.     But I am probably jinxing it by tracking it which would make a few people happy.

Kind of a 1951 type progression.

[MWG]

Nice the city finally got snowplows. 

[Cloud]

Pretty sure @RentonHillwould agree with my assessment in the previous post! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Last 2 winters have yielded a fat F from me for my area. 
 

- This year, less than a trace and a dry cold snap. 
- Last year, less than 2” total snow. 

Brutal, especially seeing the surrounding areas did well. 

That cold wave alone earns it a C in my book.  Biggest January blast in over 50 years.  That is a big deal.

[SimplySmoothWX]

All of the snow that fell this morning is gone by now. The biggest thing is the cold wind + rain/snow mix not fun to walk in by any means. Feel bad for anyone going to the baseball games this weekend

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That cold wave alone earns it a C in my book.  Biggest January blast in over 50 years.  That is a big deal.

A C with an asterisk. 

Snow stopped here now. I’m feeling a bit more confident about the next 48 hours assuming we actually get sufficient moisture. 

[snow_wizard]

51 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

D*mn yeah might have to check it out. Green mountain at 1600’ seems to do better than tiger mountain at 1300’. I drive over that everyday. They’ve had a decent amount of snow this week but not that much. 

Not always.  This setup has been terrible for east of Puget Sound up until now.  Not a fair yardstick to use.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Last 2 winters have yielded a fat F from me for my area. 
 

- This year, less than a trace and a dry cold snap. 
- Last year, less than 2” total snow. 

Brutal, especially seeing the surrounding areas did well. 

The lack of snow sucks, but I think the F grades in our climate really should be reserved for the worst of the worst. A week of bitter cold and at least a handful of snow opportunities already makes this winter (and last) infinitely better than the 2002-03 types. The grading distribution would skew pretty heavily towards D/F in this climate otherwise. Our winters are capable of being really, really bad.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

25 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'd love a few days of warmth and sunshine every week,  but also a couple days of mountain snow. Hopefully we can get into that pattern. I'd say I've had enough snow days this year to be satisfied, so I wouldn't be too upset about not getting any more. Maybe another foot this season would be nice though.

Dude you live 4k feet in the mountains,  I'm sure you are ready for warm weather lol!!!

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That cold wave alone earns it a C in my book.  Biggest January blast in over 50 years.  That is a big deal.

That was a great cold snap. But because it yielded zero snow I had to give it a tough grade.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Not always.  This setup has been terrible for east of Puget Sound up until now.  Not a fair yardstick to use.

The top of that mountain probably averages 60-100 snow a year. I average 30 ish. I can see snow on the trees for a good part of the winter up there.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

A C with an asterisk. 

Snow stopped here now. I’m feeling a bit more confident about the next 48 hours assuming we actually get sufficient moisture. 

Absolutely correct about the asterisk.  Cold is not going to be an issue the next two nights.  All going to come down to getting some organized precip.  If the ECMWF is correct about the next two nights I would up this winter to a C+.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dude you live 4k feet in the mountains,  I'm sure you are ready for warm weather lol!!!

We can’t feel bad for people above 1500 feet. They have elevation privilege. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The lack of snow sucks, but I think the F grades in our climate really should be reserved for the worst of the worst. A week of bitter cold and at least a handful of snow opportunities already makes this winter (and last) infinitely better than the 2002-03 types. The grading distribution would skew pretty heavily towards D/F in this climate otherwise. Our winters are capable of being really, really bad.

Yes.

Even the incredible 1950s kicked out the utter turd burger known as 1957-58.  Then of course the horrendous 1991-92.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We can’t feel bad for people above 1500 feet. They have elevation privilege. 

Indeed.  That's why I don't get that impressed with places like Donner's Pass getting a blizzard.  In this state that storm would just be business as usual.  It's over 7000 feet!

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dude you live 4k feet in the mountains,  I'm sure you are ready for warm weather lol!!!

I know someone who is not ready for warm weather here. It causes him to vomit.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The lack of snow sucks, but I think the F grades in our climate really should be reserved for the worst of the worst. A week of bitter cold and at least a handful of snow opportunities already makes this winter (and last) infinitely better than the 2002-03 types. The grading distribution would skew pretty heavily towards D/F in this climate otherwise. Our winters are capable of being really, really bad.

This is a completely fair take as we’ve seen worst. Expectations from me were also low this year given the Niño conditions. So the F may have been harsh.

[snow_wizard]

The 3km NAM is finally showing moisture east of Puget Sound Monday morning. Up until now it had been totally dry.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43F with some clouds and sunbreaks.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yes.

Even the incredible 1950s kicked out the utter turd burger known as 1957-58.  Then of course the horrendous 1991-92.

Yeah, the F grades that I would hand out for winters at my location would probably be 2014-15, 2004-05, 2002-03, 1991-92, 1986-87, 1982-83, 1980-81, 1966-67, 1963-64, 1957-58, 1952-53, 1943-44, 1940-41, 1939-40 (back to back!!), 1930-31, 1925-26, and 1918-19. 

So about two per decade on average here, and next winter will mark a decade since our last one so we're definitely due. The 1980s and 1940s were the worst with three apiece. 1933-34 avoids an F simply because December 1933 looked like a pretty fun month.

Edited March 2 by BLI snowman

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is a completely fair take as we’ve seen worst. Expectations from me were also low this year given the Niño conditions. So the F may have been harsh.

Another incredible thing this winter is Jan - Feb actually ended up about normal for temps.  With a strong Nino that's impressive.  This month has a great shot at below normal the way it looks right now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  That's why I don't get that impressed with places like Donner's Pass getting a blizzard.  In this state that storm would just be business as usual.  It's over 7000 feet!

I have never seen a 184 mph wind gust in these mountains that was observed.  From what I can find the snow totals were not anything even close to models

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Definitely colder showers today since this thing started couple days ago. Snowing here with this shower and it started as light snow. Impressive for the afternoon in march 36 degrees, tonight could actually be decent sticking snow for some places

Edited March 2 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the F grades that I would hand out for winters at my location would probably be 2014-15, 2004-05, 2002-03, 1991-92, 1986-87, 1982-83, 1980-81, 1966-67, 1963-64, 1957-58, 1952-53, 1943-44, 1940-41, 1939-40 (back to back!!), 1925-26, and 1918-19. 

So about two per decade on average here, and next winter will mark a decade since our last one so we're definitely due. The 1980s and 1940s were the worst with three apiece. 1933-34 avoids an F simply because December 1933 looked like a pretty fun month.

Even the 19th century had awful winters like 1888-89.  I think 1930-31 was horrible here too.

I thought 1925-26 had a short January Arctic blast.  2014-15 had a nice late November snowfall / Arctic front that saved it from an F here.

We are certainly due for a turd sandwich, but it's highly unlikely to be next winter.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have never seen a 184 mph wind gust in these mountains that was observed.  From what I can find the snow totals were not anything even close to models

The wind was a little bit nuts I must admit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have never seen a 184 mph wind gust in these mountains that was observed.  From what I can find the snow totals were not anything even close to models

Looks like about 30 inches so far in Tahoe,  not even close to what they thought, but it's not over yet and those convective showers can drop a foot of snow in just a few hrs up there at that elevation 

[snow_wizard]

Totally Ninaesque MJO right now.  Interestingly the MJO was also in region 3 when we had the January blast.  3 is one of the better positions for us.

[Omegaraptor]

Timberline has just passed 400” on the season.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another incredible thing this winter is Jan - Feb actually ended up about normal for temps.  With a strong Nino that's impressive.  This month has a great shot at below normal the way it looks right now.

Jan was +1.9F

Feb +2.8F

Haven't had a below normal month since March of last year.