SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Cedar Lake near Tim got almost 30" in Nov 2006. Would be fun to see him experience that again! Looking at the PRISM data, November 2006 is right up there with January 1953, and December 1964 as the wettest month here in the past 125 years. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Up to 61F here. Another warm day as we only got down into the upper 50s again overnight. Double-digit + departure for the second day in a row. Gonna be tough to overcome that for this to be a cooler than normal month. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 10-day mean 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 12z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day GIF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Temp has now dropped from 56 to 48 since 9am. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Temp has now dropped from 56 to 48 since 9am. Down to 52 here. Nice November day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 18z GFS 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day GIF 10 Day Rainfall Totals -- Wet!!!! 10 Day Snowfall Totals -- Max snow 104"! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day GIF 10 Day Rainfall Totals -- Wet!!!! 10 Day Snowfall Totals -- Max snow 104"! It could be a early start to the skiing season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It could be a early start to the skiing season Based on the consistency shown with the GFS/GEFS, ECMWF/EPS I would say that is looking likely to very likely. 00z GFS 4 hours 28 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Seems like the long range has some potential if it decides to drop that low down the coast instead of cutting it off to the West. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Getting windy, and hopefully that's the start of some major change in weather! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Seems like the long range has some potential if it decides to drop that low down the coast instead of cutting it off to the West. Really quite good potential ahead and I would not rule out a snow event near/before Thanksgiving. C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 27 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 CFS continuing to trend colder for January. N. Oregon is now below average on the latest runs. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS continuing to trend colder for January. N. Oregon is now below average on the latest runs. Historic Winter ahead. I'm going really bullish with 4-5 snow events for PDX. Snow totals 2-39". Ya gotta believe! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Still 61 and rainy. Nice day!!! 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 Good soaking rain down here in PDX. Snowing leaves as well! Back home looks like the back end of the storm is approaching looking at the nest cams. .38 today in Federal Way and the temp has been on a long slide downward since midnight. Currently 49* 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 5, 2020 Report Share Posted November 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Historic Winter ahead. I'm going really bullish with 4-5 snow events for PDX. Snow totals 2-39". Ya gotta believe! 2"- 39" Sounds like a PDX NWS forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, Jbolin said: 2"- 39" Sounds like a PDX NWS forecast Reminds me of Mark Nelsen's graphic the night of 1-10-17. He started out with 1-4" then later it was 1-8" once it started to really pile up. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, El_Nina said: Reminds me of Mark Nelsen's graphic the night of 1-10-17. He started out with 1-4" then later it was 1-8" once it started to really pile up. Same thing happened with Knudsen and Moffitt down here for 2-25-19. They initially called for 4" or so then it quickly went up to 8"+ after the snow began to accumulate some 6 hours earlier than forecast. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 18z GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly 16 Day GIF Portland (850s / Precip) Seattle (850s / Precip) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly 16 Day GIF Portland (850s / Precip) Seattle (850s / Precip) Solidly cool/cold and a metric s*** ton of precip 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Temp down to 41 degrees. .73” on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Rather interesting the ECMWF meteograms have dropped SEA to 45 / 35 for Saturday where earlier runs had been showing 46-36. It's not moderating in the home stretch. Basically it appears the coming cold weather is going be giving us the temperatures we would normally see in December, and on a couple of days even a bit chillier than that on the lows. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, MossMan said: Temp down to 41 degrees. .73” on the day. That was a pretty sharp cold front that came through. Very noticeable difference between the morning and early evening. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 I'm really liking the recurring northerly surface pressure gradient showing up on the models. That feature always gives us colder weather in relation to 850s than either onshore flow or easterly surface winds. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Did someone say EPS? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That was a pretty sharp cold front that came through. Very noticeable difference between the morning and early evening. I might not see 50’s again for quite a while! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Another thing to watch with this pattern coming up will be some crazy low PDO developing. There's a lot of warm water over the NE Pacific and that should be reconfigured into quite a strong -PDO signature. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Have had 0.43” today...1.63” on the month. Some more rain coming in too it looks like. Have also dropped down to 47 from our midnight high temp of 59 this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 0.65" so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Another thing to watch with this pattern coming up will be some crazy low PDO developing. There's a lot of warm water over the NE Pacific and that should be reconfigured into quite a strong -PDO signature. 850 hpa winds illustrate this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Rather interesting the ECMWF meteograms have dropped SEA to 45 / 35 for Saturday where earlier runs had been showing 46-36. It's not moderating in the home stretch. Basically it appears the coming cold weather is going be giving us the temperatures we would normally see in December, and on a couple of days even a bit chillier than that on the lows. 1 degree? Really? You can't be serious. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Rainy but still 57F which is the low temp for the day. Oof. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: 1 degree? Really? You can't be serious. 36 is not nearly as cold as 35, and don't get me started on 34. 00z GFS in 2 minutes! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: 1 degree? Really? You can't be serious. 1 degree makes a HUGE difference when we are talking the difference between 32 and 33! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: 1 degree makes a HUGE difference when we are talking the difference between 32 and 33! Correct. 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Three things I'm watching for this run. Trough digging back more Stronger blocking/amplification Day 7+ PV be displaced towards Western Northwest Territories/northern Alberta. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 6, 2020 Report Share Posted November 6, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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