seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GEM 960mb into Vancouver Island D**n winds at face value? The gfs has a similar track and the ecwf goes more into oregon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said: D**n winds at face value? The gfs has a similar track and the ecwf goes more into oregon The NAM will set us straight! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 GFS still looks plenty stormy! Especially on Friday/Saturday 1 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 The sun angles seemed pretty low today. With that in mind, I like the fact that all of December and January have even lower sun angles than today. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Requiem said: GFS still looks plenty stormy! Especially on Friday/Saturday Andrew is setting up a Zoom call with you now! 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Wind!! Rocking the house, temp up to 35. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Back to 00z GFS - Day 9 Little doubt we are going to get it good at some point. All I have to go by is La Nina seasons that had similar weather to this early in the season and that points to a December blast. If the moderate cold shots continue through December without the big one hitting then we could have a great January. The recurring Aleutian / GOA ridge usually means good things with a La Nina season. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wind!! Rocking the house, temp up to 35. No kiddin? Southerlies? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Straight rain here. Temp around 38F. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Sitting at 36 here now. Color me impressed for seeing it this chilly on a cloudy night this early in the season. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Still 45F here and cloudy. Held steady there for several hours. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 GFS does this. Show great stuff then backs off as the day gets closer. 1 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Snowing in Central Vancouver Island (~1400 feet): 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, umadbro said: GFS does this. Show great stuff then backs off as the day gets closer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, Jesse said: The sun angles seemed pretty low today. With that in mind, I like the fact that all of December and January have even lower sun angles than today. Sounds like model-riding to me. Personally, I wouldn’t trust those forecasts more than seven days out. 1 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: No kiddin? Southerlies? According to my weather station it’s currently a NW wind. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Wow! Inside of an hour Hoquiam went from S winds gusting to 51 to brisk NW winds. The low must be pretty far south. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 PDX up to 44. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 32 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: GFS has abandoned us. It's not really that different. Same general theme with a few detail differences. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Looking even closer at the Hoquiam winds they went from E to strong S to NW in 2 hours. A surface low must have tracked very near there. I'll be interested to see how far south the north winds get tomorrow with the next cold trough. 850s bottom out below -6 again tomorrow night. I absolutely love what I'm seeing this month so far. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Looks like Cliff needs to join Andrews Zoom call. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/potential-for-major-storm-on-friday.html?m=1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Both the 00z GFS and GEM peaked wind gusts between 50-60 mph around the Puget Sound area on either Friday night (GEM) or Saturday morning (GFS). Upwards of 70+ mph down the Strait on the backside of the low. Looking forward to the potential of a good windstorm later this week. Hope it materializes over the next couple days. Doesn’t look too shabby for the valley either. Gusts 45-55 maybe? 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Wet snow on the North Shore west of Vancouver (~650 ft): 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looking even closer at the Hoquiam winds they went from E to strong S to NW in 2 hours. A surface low must have tracked very near there. I'll be interested to see how far south the north winds get tomorrow with the next cold trough. 850s bottom out below -6 again tomorrow night. I absolutely love what I'm seeing this month so far. Yes... first image is 4 p.m. and second image now. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, Jesse said: It's ok to be honest about things. But keep on your passive aggressive style. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Looks more like winter starting near Squamish (Alice Lake ~470 ft): and Brew Creek (~1600 ft): 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 We bought our first house two months ago. It's literally right next door to the house we had been renting for the past 6+ years because we liked the neighborhood so much. I just realized I can't see the street lamp from here. I may need to chop a tree down. 3 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just had an ice pellet shower. Wind bouncing between NW and SW. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 1 (Past 4 runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, North_County said: We bought our first house two months ago. It's literally right next door to the house we had been renting for the past 6+ years because we liked the neighborhood so much. I just realized I can't see the street lamp from here. I may need to chop a tree down. When I have looked for houses, I have also considered street lamps. Never told anyone that, they wouldn't understand. My neighborhood, even though it is otherwise very nice, didn't have streetlights. So I had floodlights installed on our porch so so could watch the snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: When I have looked for houses, I have also considered street lamps. Never told anyone that, they wouldn't understand. My neighborhood, even though it is otherwise very nice, didn't have streetlights. So I had floodlights installed on our porch so so could watch the snow. I will send my dogs out to trigger our motion light in the back yard or shine the flashlight out the window. And when we were looking for a new place a few years ago my wife kept wanting to look in the Conway/Mt Vernon area...Thank god our friends and neighbors at our old place bought where they did and the property just below became available at nearly the same time...My wife was all for it and I knew where we are now would be good for cold/snow! Bullet dodged since it would have been a bit awkward telling my wife we couldn’t move to her dream property since the Mt Vernon area sucks for cold/snow haha! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Up to .12” on the day. Temp 36. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 4 Much further south than the GFS, GEM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 IF this panned out we would see HWWarnings for the Coast, Coast Range, AND Valleys/Western Washington. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: IF this panned out we would see HWWarnings for the Coast, Coast Range, AND Valleys/Western Washington. scott sistek on twitter says 23 or 24+ isobars between BLI-PDX. How does that translate to wind gusts and sustained winds? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 The trajectory of that low Friday night suggests there could be a pretty crazy wind surge down the Strait that could hit North Snohomish and Skagit Counties pretty hard. That type of trajectory is much less conducive to really high winds in the Seattle area. Details will be everything on that one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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