I hereby allocate the next 2 hours to an open discussion about whether or not Tim only posts good or bad maps and whether he's a consummate truth teller or whether it is low key trolling. This forum to resume at 7:30 for the 00z GFS.
*hits gavel*
GOA ridge, but close enough to the BC/PNW coast to maintain the warm/dry regime above the residual STJ (niño elements remain in the system state for now).
After the ~ 25th (+/- a few days) we shake up the tropical forcing sufficiently to break down the +TNH/ridge tendency, but still not much westerly momentum fluxed poleward at that point, so won’t be as anomalously wet as the last week has been. But maybe that will change in June, we’ll see.
Back in my younger days, which were the olden days of the 1980’s to early 90’s, January thru March were awful for me. The only bright spots would be if we had snow. I was addicted to fishing as a kid and all I could think about was getting to April…Opening day of fishing season! But I hated school, and those dark wet days just seem to drag on forever!
This forum back then would have been huge to get me through. Instead it was playing a lot of Mario on the original Nintendo.
A GOA ridge axis would probably give us a seasonably warm day/cool nights setup which is much better than a ridge directly overhead with endless 80s/90s
Ridge axis may slide into the GOA during the second half of the +TNH/+PNA cycle but it won’t break down until the last week of the month. Clean response to MJO and seasonal dynamics.
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