Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Rock bottom. Good song by a band called u.f.o. They also did the song hocus pocus but were called focus. There’s a few bands I specifically remember my dad listening to on the 8 track in his brown Chevy Scottsdale. UFO is one of them. I saw this and suddenly remembered getting hit in the snow while in that thing in November 1985. Thing held up like a champ. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Too far out to even begin to worry about right now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Too far out to even begin to worry about right now. What would I be worried about? A cold trough dropping south out of the GOA? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 The ensemble mean is still bottoming out around -6. It's been pretty stable in that range except for a few runs in the -7 to -7.5 range. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What would I be worried about? A cold trough dropping south out of the GOA? True. You do ok with different setups than many of us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: True. You do ok with different setups than many of us. Yeah, that think is looking primed to drop south and pump a lot of cold onshore flow. Nudge that thing a little East and it’s a great setup for everyone. I was posting that as a good thing. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Portland AFD somewhat on board. Going beyond the official forecast ending Saturday, today`s combined model runs make Saturday night and Sunday the most interesting period to watch. A developing closed low drops south from the Bering sea and takes a near shore track down the BC coast. The resultant closed low on Sunday could end up anywhere from just off the Oregon coast to just outside of 130 West. This would place the CWA near or under prime diffluent flow aloft to produce precipitation. Additionally, some models then produce strong easterly pressure gradients across the Cascades which then bring cooler continental air across the Cascades. IF (notice the caps), IF this all comes together just right, then there is potential for a few inches of snow even across the interior valleys. That said, far too much can, and will likely change, between now and then. /JBonk 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Deweydog said: There’s a few bands I specifically remember my dad listening to on the 8 track in his brown Chevy Scottsdale. UFO is one of them. I saw this and suddenly remembered getting hit in the snow while in that thing in November 1985. Thing held up like a champ. Oh my that brought back memories of my own!! My dads Chevy Scottsdale featured ELO’s 8 track and “Don’t Bring Me Down” was played over and over again!! Oh I blacked out my sisters face, it was contrasting with that beautiful black paint. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 My dad listened to music from the Dark Ages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Dang, still no goodies in the believable range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Portland AFD somewhat on board. Going beyond the official forecast ending Saturday, today`s combined model runs make Saturday night and Sunday the most interesting period to watch. A developing closed low drops south from the Bering sea and takes a near shore track down the BC coast. The resultant closed low on Sunday could end up anywhere from just off the Oregon coast to just outside of 130 West. This would place the CWA near or under prime diffluent flow aloft to produce precipitation. Additionally, some models then produce strong easterly pressure gradients across the Cascades which then bring cooler continental air across the Cascades. IF (notice the caps), IF this all comes together just right, then there is potential for a few inches of snow even across the interior valleys. That said, far too much can, and will likely change, between now and then. /JBonk Jinxifying. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Portland AFD somewhat on board. Going beyond the official forecast ending Saturday, today`s combined model runs make Saturday night and Sunday the most interesting period to watch. A developing closed low drops south from the Bering sea and takes a near shore track down the BC coast. The resultant closed low on Sunday could end up anywhere from just off the Oregon coast to just outside of 130 West. This would place the CWA near or under prime diffluent flow aloft to produce precipitation. Additionally, some models then produce strong easterly pressure gradients across the Cascades which then bring cooler continental air across the Cascades. IF (notice the caps), IF this all comes together just right, then there is potential for a few inches of snow even across the interior valleys. That said, far too much can, and will likely change, between now and then. /JBonk Medford also mention it in the last update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, paulb/eugene said: Keep posting daffodil pics and this will happen to you . This was my front yard March 2012, 7-8” of heavy wet snow on my blooming daffodils Or this from 2017! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, MWG said: Medford also mention it in the last update and we can add Seattle to the list... LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Aforementioned high pressure will prevail on Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures cooling to just below normal. Ridge shifts off to the east Thursday as large upper level low across the eastern Pacific drops southeast. 12z ECMWF has come more into line with 12Z GFS and drops the low south but is more to the west and south as it heads into California. GFS takes the low in closer proximity to Washington as it heads into Oregon - with wrap around precip affecting portions of the area. This would suggest the possibility of a rain/snow mix in the lowlands but latest ensemble solutions have backed off on the possibility of snow with only a member or two showing anything. Ridging likely rebounds for later Friday into Saturday with cooler northerly flow. Things become more interesting for the end of the weekend into next week as ensembles highlight a better probability of below normal temperatures and snow chances for the lowlands. At this point, it`s anyone`s guess so continue to stay tuned! 3 1 2 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 the packers r good. carry on. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Yo ‘drew dawg, you catch the 18? @SilverFallsAndrew 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: Yo ‘drew dawg, you catch the 18? @SilverFallsAndrew Yeah man!!!!!! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Hey Tim!!! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 No mention of any snow/cold on my AFD, just more wind... Tuesday through next Saturday...biggest concern over this period will be the potential for high winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and across Eastern Glacier County from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, which could lead to blowing snow and hazardous travel for high profile vehicles. Will hold off on issuing any high wind highlights with this forecast package, but future highlights may be needed if confidence and winds continue to increase/trend-up. - Moldan Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 I think PDX has a freeze or two in the chamber for later this month. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 FWIW, 18z ECMWF is stronger with the shortwave out here and the block has a lot less energy trying to develop within it compared to the 12z at hour 90... 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think PDX has a freeze or two in the chamber for later this month. Analog? 2 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: What's your best guess for an outcome over the next month? Cooler than average for a week, then a nice shot of cold towards the very end of the month as the TPV comes down. Then probably another shot of cold air mid/late February. Early indications for spring suggest a continued -PNA theme, with a cold west/warm east outcome. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Pretty foggy! 37 degrees and 1/2 mile visibility. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Nice evening. 46/35 today. Brother down in Coquille said 63/45 there. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Cliff Mass is onboard. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, Phil said: Cooler than average for a week, then a nice shot of cold towards the very end of the month as the TPV comes down. Then probably another shot of cold air mid/late February. Early indications for spring suggest a continued -PNA theme, with a cold west/warm east outcome. Are you backing off on your prediction for a big league cold pattern? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Phil do you think this is a pimple or a mole? I PM’d you pic. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 The snow melted off my trees one year ago today. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 57 minutes ago, MossMan said: Cliff Mass is onboard. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 I think it's funny he needed to explain why Wednesday's forecast went wrong. Pretty simple, our local mets did not heed the Euro at all, briefly mentioning it maybe. They really try to rely on the GFS far too much. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Appears somebody's jealous about the attention somebody else has gotten post-SSW. I wonder who he will lash out at next? https://www.dictionary.com/browse/humor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: I think it's funny he needed to explain why Wednesday's forecast went wrong. Pretty simple, our local mets did not heed the Euro at all, briefly mentioning it maybe. They really try to rely on the GFS far too much. I think part of it is related to the UW WRF. Bias towards their own local model. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I think part of it is related to the UW WRF. Bias towards their own local model. Absolutely, even though that model has been trash for years, except for maybe the last run right before an event at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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RentonHill Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2021 Report Share Posted January 17, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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