ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Good mountain snow though?Could be some. I think the mountains will get in on some snow around mid month. Hopefully enough for the ski hills before the holiday season starts for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 December 20th is right around the corner. You guys better get this squared away. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 December 20th is right around the corner. You guys better get this s**t squared away.So how's it looking Matt? You think we blew our load too early with the two November events? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Getting some light snow and freezing drizzle @ 26F. Cold pool is still pretty resilient in the basin. I'm sure it will erode over the next day or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Dodged ZR out here again this morning by about a degree. Woke up to 33 degree rain. Looks like they may have gotten a brief period of sleet in Carson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 December 20th is right around the corner. You guys better get this s**t squared away.March 7th. Game time. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 So how's it looking Matt? You think we blew our load too early with the two November events?I know the early November stuff was pretty expected, relatively speaking but the late November stuff seemed pretty off the grid to me. Maybe it'll be one of those years where we go to the well several times. At this point though my expectations are pretty low, unlike last year where even after early December it felt pretty cetain in my mind things would swing back around later on. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 The D+8 12z GFS analog composite looks good. The top 4 analog years had 5.4", 5.0", 12.4" and 7.6" respectively for PDX. I like that 1979 continues to show up and now 1984. If you center 1979 that would mean snow starting around Dec. 30 and for 1984 that would mean around Jan. 3. I think arctic air will start to arrive the last week of December, that would be my best guess with snowstorm(s) around New Years. http://oi62.tinypic.com/2uqhb9z.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Is it me or doesn't it seem like a better idea to focus on analogs to the CURRENT weather. Maybe it is just me... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Is it me or doesn't it seem like a better idea to focus on analogs to the CURRENT weather. Maybe it is just me... Yeah... I wish the CPC charts showed the top analogs to current pattern and not D+8. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Glad my Eastern Wa drive was yesterday, looks like some Ice Storm Warnings over there today! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Some areas in central oregon finally above freezing. They have had a nightmare ice storm over there for days now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 I know the early November stuff was pretty expected, relatively speaking but the late November stuff seemed pretty off the grid to me. Maybe it'll be one of those years where we go to the well several times. At this point though my expectations are pretty low, unlike last year where even after early December it felt pretty cetain in my mind things would swing back around later on. Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch.Or we continue the cycle that we had in November! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch. We're also way overdue for an upper level cold event in the month of January. We'll see which one wins out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 We're also way overdue for an upper level cold event in the month of January. We'll see which one wins out. That is very true. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Warm out there... almost 6 days of solid snow cover. It was a good run. http://s22.postimg.org/49bmsykds/20141204_124739.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Warm out there... almost 6 days of solid snow cover. It was a good run. http://s22.postimg.org/49bmsykds/20141204_124739.jpgI tried to post my snow melt pic but file size was too big. Even though it's melting, it looks like your is melting faster! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 I tried to post my snow melt pic but file size was too big. Even though it's melting, it looks like your is melting faster! Wish I could do a time lapse today... would be interesting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 We're also way overdue for an upper level cold event in the month of January. We'll see which one wins out.That fact is the only thing that keeps me getting out of bed every morning. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Warm out there... almost 6 days of solid snow cover. It was a good run. http://s22.postimg.org/49bmsykds/20141204_124739.jpg Yeah same here...the rest of the snow except the piles will probably be gone by tomorrow morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year? Looks like a classic precursor wave-1 here..anyone else have thoughts on this? http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year Classic precursor wave-1 here.. http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg Hope its carcass does not spread over Europe instead of North America. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 That fact is the only thing that keeps me getting out of bed every morning. You should consult your therapist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hope its carcass does not spread over Europe instead of North America.Thinking that it'll bifurcate with one piece splitting into Eurasia while other dives into Canada? That's always hard to determine. The 100-50mb portion of the vortex is the most important. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Regarding what you've said here above about the main "NOAA /OSPO" SSTA graphics. Perhaps you'll find more value where checking their being more animated. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html Link appears to be broken... EDIT: clicked it a third time and it worked. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 That fact is the only thing that keeps me getting out of bed every morning.I won't even get out of bed until it snows again. I am pathetic. (Look no winky emoticon - there may be hope for me) Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 You should consult your therapist.She's on vacation in a much colder and snowier climate. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year? Looks like a classic precursor wave-1 here..anyone else have thoughts on this? http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg@webberweather posted this image which demonstrates the MJO & SSWE correlation. Model guidance shows a 500mb configuration which closely resembles a 500mb configuration preceding a SSWE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Glad to see I'm not on my own with this 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 4, 2014 Report Share Posted December 4, 2014 Raw day. 35/32 so far with rain at times. You can see a glaze of ZR on the hills above 700'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 There seem to be some hints that we could go into a decent mountain snow pattern after day 7Looks like we will have to get through a pretty warm rain event next week first, though. Trying to plan a sledding trip at Old Man Pass (3,000') sometime this month so it would be nice to see something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Is it me or doesn't it seem like a better idea to focus on analogs to the CURRENT weather. Maybe it is just me... Surprisingly the CPC claims analogs based on model projections are more useful for forecasting purposes. They saw the recent cold shot before we actually got any good looking model runs so there is something to it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 What a raw December day. Did make it to 41 (now) with 0.78" of rain. Mark Nelsen posted weekly maps over at KPTV and they too show cold air the last week of the month. However, they completely missed the cold back in mid November. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch. I think you're missing the boat here. There is strong evidence on a number of fronts that supports the idea of a good cold wave somewhere in the late Dec to mid Jan period. I am on the record for this as much as Phil. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hope its carcass does not spread over Europe instead of North America. A January 1987 type solution is a possibility. Europe gets nailed with one of their biggest modern cold waves while the PNW gets nothing. This followed a ton of November cold in the lower 48 like we just saw. Its not pretty, but its one of the Nino analogs that we currently have going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Normally the CFS isn't really worth commenting on, but when it consistently comes up with a highly anomalous solution in a realtively tight time frame it does have some skill. Over the past week it has consistently been coming up with some pretty impressive cold for the NW in early January. Yesterday's run, which is the latest update on the site I use, shows a warning shot in late December and then a really nice blast in early January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 Granted a response to a more pessimistic view given the context here. But as far as the "on record" idea goes more, a fairly broad bush timeframe wise, isn't this Jim. ? .. The near month-long period, beginning winter. Not when you consider the degree of anomaly I'm expecting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 There seem to be some hints that we could go into a decent mountain snow pattern after day 7 Looks like we will have to get through a pretty warm rain event next week first, though. Trying to plan a sledding trip at Old Man Pass (3,000') sometime this month so it would be nice to see something. You already got to sled on 11/13, young man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2014 Report Share Posted December 5, 2014 A January 1987 type solution is a possibility. Europe gets nailed with one of their biggest modern cold waves while the PNW gets nothing. This followed a ton of November cold in the lower 48 like we just saw. Its not pretty, but its one of the Nino analogs that we currently have going. You never know, but past history says we have about an 80% chance of getting at least a taste of Arctic air by or before mid Jan. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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