February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend GEM, ECMWF, GFS

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Day 2

[luminen]

is it over already? D****T i was getting excited over the run before the last run (GFS)

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend. GEM, ECMWF, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Next frames Day 3, 4 are CRITICAL to say the least.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend. GEM, ECMWF, GFS. ECMWF better than both by quite a bit.

[Gradient Keeper]

Better tilt, cut-off low position, cold air further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 countdown: 3 minutes

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Better tilt, cut-off low position, cold air further west.

00Z ECMWF is slightly east of its 12Z run by Saturday afternoon.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trend. GEM, ECMWF, GFS. ECMWF considerably better.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge merger occurring this might get cold yet.

[TT-SEA]

And it looks like the ECMWF has stopped updating on WB.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And it looks like the ECMWF has stopped updating on WB.   

You gotta be shitting me

[TT-SEA]

It stopped at 87 hours... that's a wrap folks! 

[Winterdog]

It's up to 102 hrs on Pivotal

edit:  Stopped at 108

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 A step back unfortunately

 

[Gradient Keeper]

King GFS again? .. The twists and turns for model riders the past 12 hours has been HORRIBLE and agonizing.

[Winterdog]

Cold retreating at hr120 

[Gradient Keeper]

Model trends. GEM, ECMWF, GFS (I can't change the order of them, or I would put ECMWF, GEM, GFS)

[Requiem]

I just want my easterly winds lol how hard can it be 

[Winterdog]

I'm retreating at 10:28

[snow drift]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

King GFS again? .. The twists and turns for model riders the past 12 hours has been HORRIBLE and agonizing.

Hmmm....

 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

King GFS again? .. The twists and turns for model riders the past 12 hours has been HORRIBLE and agonizing.

IF you take them at face value...

[MossMan]

Just now, Acer said:

Cold retreating at hr120 

It’s what we get for jumping onboard earlier. 
I’m going to bed, can’t watch this horror show anymore. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto 12z and who the heck knows what it's going to show. The trends have never held either way thus far.

[snow drift]

It was fun to track for 12 hrs. Oh well

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Am I supposed to be upset about this?

 

Not sure... do you like low 40s with a brisk SW breeze?   That is what the 00Z ECMWF shows for Monday.

[GeorgeWx]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 A step back unfortunately

 

The models are finally figuring out how massive the Rockies are 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 and as I suspected this run is toast

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 and as I suspected this run is toast

At least we only have to wait until day six to throw the run away instead of day 15!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5 850s Gorge, Columbia Basin A LOT colder than I expected with strong east winds

[TT-SEA]

Total snow for the Sunday-Tuesday period in the window of opportunity on this run...  Randy!!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Very strong east winds. PDX-DLS at least -10mb.

[GeorgeWx]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 and as I suspected this run is toast

Score one for the Gfsv16, it led the way. It never gave a false signal like the other models. Atleast we know the upgrade looks legit, can’t wait for it to replace the old Gfs

[Requiem]

Run is good enough for me with that

[GHweatherChris]

So.... ya...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The changes from 12z to 00z upstream with the ridge were so small we could easily see tomorrows runs be jaw droppers. Will they? Time will tell.