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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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6z GEFS 850mb mean temp
Seattle: -12.4c
Portland: -8.1c
Bellingham: -14.2c
The Dalles: -17.6
Eugene: -4.4c

 

Surface temps, lowest high/low temps
Seattle - 27.5 / 19.7 (Below freezing from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 PM Monday)
Portland - 21.9 / 14.1 (Below freezing from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM Monday)
Bellingham - 18.6 / 7.5 (Below freezing now to 4 PM Monday
The Dalles - 14.7 / 6.9 (Below freezing 6 PM Today to 10 AM NEXT Thursday)

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Dropped down to -13F already this morning. Pretty impressive considering the REALLY cold air has still yet to arrive.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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NWS Seattle hasn’t bit yet. In fact, the discussion this morning states that significant snowfall is not expected.

I wonder when they’ll bite. The 6Z GFS was a clear move towards the Euro solution, with both models now calling for significant accumulations south of Seattle.

it’s hard to imagine that we get through today without a winter storm watch, considering we’re in the realm of 48 hours out.

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Looking at the NAM model 12z  runs in 12km and 3km resolution is textbook lesson ....the 12km run has temp of 48 degrees in Eugene in 60 hours whereas the 3km resolution has Eugene 11 degrees colder, 37F.  3km resolution accounts for the Columbia Gorge better.
The extent of the sub freezing layer in the Willamette Valley will me more than the GFS and Euro are showing but will just be freezing rain down here.  I was celebrating the lack of extreme freezing rain predictions on the last few model runs but at same time know that we are not out of the woods. 
enjoy your snow up north...Gloat all you want up there, am looking forward to hearing of some big totals.

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

A fair amount more snow for Western WA through Friday evening on the 06z Euro vs 00z. Snow starts Thursday morning. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3174400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3174400-1.png

If you don't mind, what does the Euro look like for snow tomorrow in the Sound with the "arctic front?" Really just hoping to take this one storm at a time.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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The Euro is horrible in upslope situations, I just don't think the model sees it.  GFS does a little better job with it but still pretty poor.

I will say it again, someone in a populated area is going to get 20" with this system.........perhaps Bend?  Maybe the West Hills of PDX?  Somewhere in Clark County??  This is going to be dynamic, probably the most dynamic since Jan 10, 2017 in PDX, but I think this will surpass that event because of how widespread it will be.  BUCKLE UP!!!!

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Things look to have trended way too close for comfort for PDX overnight. Luckily the Seattle area looks to get the huge February event they’ve been way overdue for, AND we won’t have to worry about nasty waste of space unless it’s snowing cold air sticking around too long or spreading too far south. Maybe even Whinin’ Bryant could still end up the big winner! 🥰

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3 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Good point, could certainly be more of a ZR event with bursts of snow at times too. Who knows

33-36 degree rain to start for most areas away from the gorge, but I would expect the changeover to occur within 4-5 hours of precipitation commmencing.  Most likely some pockets of heavy snow all the way down to Woodburn or so, more focused west of I-5, my best guess.  Places like Molalla, Canby, Oregon City, etc....may get the shaft once again.

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2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

33-36 degree rain to start for most areas away from the gorge, but I would expect the changeover to occur within 4-5 hours of precipitation commmencing.  Most likely some pockets of heavy snow all the way down to Woodburn or so, more focused west of I-5, my best guess.  Places like Molalla, Canby, Oregon City, etc....may get the shaft once again.

Seems reasonable. I'm feeling somewhat comfortable here in the west hills of NW Portland, though further slight moves north could even effect here greatly. May still see another nudge south again though as the Euro and GFS come together over the next 24 hours.

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2 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Seems reasonable. I'm feeling somewhat comfortable here in the west hills of NW Portland, though further slight moves north could even effect here greatly. May still see another nudge south again though as the Euro and GFS come together over the next 24 hours.

You're in a good spot.

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Nice looking snow maps here this morning! 

 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Not sure what is worse, the bust potential at pdx. Or all the Seattle ans Canadian folk talking about the “great trends.”  
 

 

My weenie post of the day...

Yeah, sorry...I think we owe you guys one after 2019, but 2017 for you all was heartbreaking up here. Not sure which was a better stretch overall. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, ..... said:

I think Tim was blocked by iFred

Wait, really? 

Did I miss something during the nightshift?

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Haven't heard a D**n peep about Tim's daffodils so that means it's game on b****s

I have not posted about daffodils all winter.   Pretty proud of that fact!

We had a coating of snow of overnight to freshen things up... maybe a 1/4 of an inch.

32 degrees right now. 

20210209_073348.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

We owe them nothing.

(I was just being diplomatic. Gimme all the snow)

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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