February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

NAM ends warmer than the Euro as the southern stream tries to take over.  

Crap, you are right.  The new NAM shows colder 850's than the 12Z NAM but yeah it looks like the warm push is moving into the sound at 84 hours.

[MV_snow]

Well, I certainly don’t have to worry about east winds nuking our precip here on the latest Euro. The northward trend definitely makes me nervous though. Would much rather have bitterly cold and dry than 40 degree rain.

[kokaneekidz]

It is weird how Vedder Crossing is still 42 degrees with southwesterlies, while a couple kilometers east it is 33 and snowing. The northeast winds are stuck halfway between Hope and Chilliwack currently.

[snow drift]

00z runs will be interesting tonight

[wxmet]

Good news is the ECMWF 18z is coming into range for the Friday system. Let’s hope for a southern shift.

[kokaneekidz]

This is west of Hope;

[kokaneekidz]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. Even up here. And to top it off I have to look at Tom Brady’s face once again in February. Dark dark day.

Whom would you rather see today, other than Russell?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Acer said:

Crap, you are right.  The new NAM shows colder 850's than the 12Z NAM but yeah it looks like the warm push is moving into the sound at 84 hours.

The 18z will most likely show 44 degree rain for us for the second half of the week. This one is over. 

[MossMan]

Just now, kokaneekidz said:

Whom would you rather see today, other than Russell?

As much as it pains me to say...I would even chose Rodgers over Brady. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting that the ICON was the most consistent model when looking the 0z and 12z runs.  A very cold / dry solutuion after the Arctic front.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The 18z will most likely show 44 degree rain for us for the second half of the week. This one is over. 

I actually do think it's going to end up a slushfest for a day then back to normal.

[kokaneekidz]

Just now, MossMan said:

As much as it pains me to say...I would even chose Rodgers over Brady. 

I feel ya. But as much as I loathe Brady and his smugness. I am proud to see him flourish without Belicheat. Seems the Patriots needed Brady more than he needed them.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Acer said:

I actually do think it's going to end up a slushfest for a day then back to normal.

Good lord.

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good lord.

After we get fairly cold of course.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been thinking about this terrible model agreement coming up, and remembered the ECMWF has a known bias to shove too much energy underneath a block.  If that holds true this time I would expect a delay on the breakout over the ocean (if it happens at all).  If the breakout is delayed it would probably be further south than currently progged.  Interestingly the GFS's problem on the 12z is it didn't dig enough energy far enough west.  May a compromise be in order?

As for Seattle...All of the big three models deliver well below normal temps even though they all have a very different look at the 500mb level.  Even the EPS mean shows 2 sub freezing max temps for Seattle, so I feel ok about Seattle's chances at some real winter.  Obviously an ECMWF like solution pushed south about 50 miles would be the big winner for most of us.

I heard of that EURO bias before. The 12z UKMET which is suppose to be the 2nd most accurate model behind the EURO had the Thursday system make landfall in Central Oregon. I'm still thinking at least PDX North can do well later this week.

[Kolk1604]

12z UKMET 4 AM Sunday. Positive vibes guys!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z UKMET 4 AM Sunday. Positive vibes guys!

Jan 10, 2017 on steroids!!

[snow_wizard]

We have seen nothing but cold and or snowy runs for Seattle thus far.  Why anyone up here would be glum right now is beyond imagining.  Let's just wait until there is something to actually be down about first.

[Winterdog]

How's that 18Z Euro looking?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Jan 10, 2017 on steroids!!

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

How's that 18Z Euro looking?

Not anywhere near running yet.

[kokaneekidz]

We should rename the website. Bipolar Weather Weenie Forums

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

How's that 18Z Euro looking?

I think your a couple of hours early. 

[YahRaEl]

Seattle NWS just posted a Winter Weather Advisory for a the East Puget Sound

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

We should rename the website. Bipolar Weather Weenie Forums

That does have a cold connotation to it!  I like it.

[Winterdog]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think your a couple of hours early. 

Haha, yeah I was thinking it was later than it is.

[wxmet]

5 minutes ago, Acer said:

How's that 18Z Euro looking?

Not yet. I was just mentioning that when it runs later today we will get some insight into the Friday system.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the UKMET hits the sweet spot we all want.  This has epic potential.

[kokaneekidz]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

Haha, yeah I was thinking it was later than it is.

When the game starts it will be up and running!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON looks warmer at hour 75. 

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the UKMET hits the sweet spot we all want.  This has epic potential.

Didn't the UKMET have us in single digits with strong east winds just last night?

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

When the game starts it will be up and running!

The 18Z sounds much more interesting to me.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

The 18Z sounds much more interesting to me.

The drunk Irish uncle.

[Deweydog]

Today’s sun breaks are kinda nice.

[The Swamp]

4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When you see a red door do you want to paint it black?

some of that smoked meat sounds good!

[YahRaEl]

I know this ain't facebook in all. I'm no real Meteorologist but extremely live weather since the age of 5 and having asperger's has highly enhance my love and passion for it. I decided to make a group on Facebook that concentrates on the Weather for Tacoma and rest of Pierce County and nearby surroundings from nearby Counties such as southern King County and Northern Thurston County around the Nisqually Valley. I usually keep my forecast within a 48 hour range. Looking for to some snow and cold weather before my spring birds starts to arrive later this month after the 20th which I'm going to start needing warmer weather by then.

Weather Group https://facebook.com/groups/696681740851659/

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We have seen nothing but cold and or snowy runs for Seattle thus far.  Why anyone up here would be glum right now is beyond imagining.  Let's just wait until there is something to actually be down about first.

I think you worry almost as much about having literally everyone on board as you do about the models and the actual weather!   Maybe 45% to 55%. 

[bainbridgekid]

ICON is still way South with Thursday's storm but it's dramatically warmer than previous runs.

[The Swamp]

Early reports suggest the Arctic Front is traveling south, refusing to wear a mask and hasn't had a Covid 19 test.  It may be difficult for it to sneak past Border and Customs Patrol.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Steve Pierce's most recent Facebook post says stay tuned, and that it may be a GOLU model situation.