February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MossMan]

Does this count as the first shade of grey?

[umadbro]

Just a dud of a 12z

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

you are making me hate puppies

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

In Feb 2019 I was hanging on hoping the low wouldn't go north and it went south for Eugene. Still a lot of runs to go here before anyone should be feeling real confident about anything.

Yep I think things are gonna waffle around quite a bit I doubt this is locked in. Could very well end up good still down in OR. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would love to see Queen GEM get the win, but we know King EURO is going to tie it up with some BDSM. 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

I'm expecting the ICON and GEM to cave by tonight. We know it is pretty unlikely that we can get enough of an arctic push to suppress the pacific that much. The GFS outcome currently is probably the best semi realistic thing for PDX but I think this is gonna end up being an OLM and north event. Once that north trend happens, it doesn't reverse much. 

Hoping this is just a blip and everything ends up great. But judging by our luck lately...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

I'm expecting the ICON and GEM to cave by tonight. We know it is pretty unlikely that we can get enough of an arctic push to suppress the pacific that much. The GFS outcome currently is probably the best semi realistic thing for PDX but I think this is gonna end up being an OLM and north event. Once that north trend happens, it doesn't reverse much. 

Well at least PDX preserves the goose egg and is set up nicely for 21-22'. 

[snow drift]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would love to see Queen GEM get the win, but we know King EURO is going to tie it up with some BDSM. 

You and me both

[Omegaraptor]

Save us EPS.

[Phil]

Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Hoping this is just a blip and everything ends up great. But judging by our luck lately...

There's still time. 

[MossMan]

Well even I am a little concerned with just how north things have trended...The lows will probably come in north of Vancouver Island on the next Euro run! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I would be a bit nervous if I lived in Medford right now with these trends

[Blizzard777]

I need a meditative walk now 

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching

Meh, don't worry. This is pretty typical. We're used to it now. 

[Kolk1604]

This works right?

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I would be a bit nervous if I lived in Medford right now with these trends

I’m nervous and in Puyallup. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching

certainly a pretty big mental ef, i dont recall seeing such a discrepancy in models this close.  GEM shows highs in the single digits and the euro in the 40's..

[Phil]

Just now, umadbro said:

Meh, don't worry. This is pretty typical. We're used to it now. 

I’d be a wreck. Pulling for u guys.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching

I’m in Seattle and I’m anxious af right now after seeing this. Don’t really want to be at the bullseye this far out still. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well even I am a little concerned with just how north things have trended...The lows will probably come in north of Vancouver Island on the next Euro run! 

Lol everyone always assumes the worst it’s one run. 

[Requiem]

Just now, Timmy said:

certainly a pretty big mental ef, i dont recall seeing such a discrepancy in models this close.  GEM shows highs in the single digits and the euro in the 40's..

At the same time wouldn’t take much for euro to shift back a little south but not counting on it.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I need a meditative walk now 

 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

At the same time wouldn’t take much for euro to shift back a little south but not counting on it.

tonight's suite will be the superbowl of model runs this year.

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

At the same time wouldn’t take much for euro to shift back a little south but not counting on it.

Wouldn’t be the first time the Euro overdid offshore digging.

[TT-SEA]

I sense another National Guard situation for North Bend.

[MossMan]

This big ice pellet shower should help cool the ground and get it even more primed for what’s coming! 
I fueled up both vehicles this morning (that go out in the snow) and filled all my gas cans for the generator and plow...LETS DO THIS! 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This works right?

Looks like the horse guy on the coast is the big winner.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel really bad for TWL. We were taking early this morning after the 06z and he was elated. Now he ll be waking up to a disaster.

[SalemDuck]

That first system on Thursday sets everything up after that. The rain snow line doesn’t shift at all after that. Someone is going to win big over the next week

[TheNewCulverJosh]

It is Sunday.  Systems aren't arriving until Thursday.  Whoever thinks that the models won't shift 10 more times between now and then is crazy!!

[Timmy]

im not sure im mentally prepared for EPS Tim maps.  We need more puppies!

[MossMan]

My eyes and neck hurt from staring at my phone so much the last two days...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SalemDuck said:

That first system on Thursday sets everything up after that. The rain snow line doesn’t shift at all after that. Someone is going to win big over the next week

Must be some cold onshore flow at some point late in the run because somehow I end up in the pink, but I know it doesn’t happen this week.

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching

Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017?

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017?

So now the 5-6 day maps are gospel because they show things shifting a bit??  No way man, time to relax and see how things go.  Everything is still on the table.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, nwsnow said:

Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017?

I can’t think of a time a trend like this reversed within 5 days? The only saving grace is the EURO is the most aggressive. Though the 12Z GFS was a huge cave. If the GEM caves tonight and the northern trend continues then I think we have our answer.

[MossMan]

Temp down to 37. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is following the ECMWF... reaching farther to the NW with that lobe and warmer air coming northward by Thursday morning.

 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017?

I think it was mentioned yesterday at one point that we had completely paid off our 2013-2018 run down here. Gotta wait for December for that. Dave Ramsey told us to make double payments early on but of course no one listened...