February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Those snow maps sure look great for PDX right now but you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. Really playing with fire. Just a single north trend away from turning into a quick snow to rain with minimal accumulation event. If I had to guess right now, I think the sweet spot ends up somewhere north of PDX.

This is gonna be one long and exhausting week of model riding.

Going to be an intense next few days. Big boom or bust factor in all of this. Hopefully Mark will update us soon on his blog.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

NWS point forecast has 17/31 for me on Thursday. Weather.com is going with 14/26.

Either would do, though I would prefer to best the 13/19 day I got in January of last year.

[Fircrest]

10 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Feeling really good about this! Faucet covers go on later today

We recently had our last outdoor faucet converted to a frost proof one. I don't really like the way they work, but it eliminates covering them.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Beautiful clear sky’s this morning locally if you happen to actually look outside! 

40*

Thoughts of 2/2019 remind me my screentime was up 1,000 percent

Only sunny in the shadowed areas... not everywhere.

 

[Skagit Weather]

Long range forecast discussion from SEA NWS this morning:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty for the long term.

What we are confident in:

The offshore flow pattern will continue through the week and will
continue to funnel in that colder air through the Fraser River
Valley as well as through the Cascade gaps. This air is also going
to be rather dry both at the surface and aloft, so if any
precipitation were to occur it is going to be very light.

Where uncertainty starts:

While the various deterministic models and their ensembles are
becoming in more agreement with high temperatures there is still Also,
deterministic and ensemble models are becoming in much more
agreement when it comes to the high temperatures. There is still
a good 5-7 degree temperature spread. Right now, we have highs in
the mid 30s for much of the lowlands come the later part of the
week, but with the uncertainty, highs in the low 30s is still
within the realm of possibilities. When it comes to the lows, the
range of possible temperatures is even greater. Low temperatures
in the mid 20s is the most likely outcome, but the potential for
it to be in the teens or in the upper 20s is there. In the end,
what will be the deciding factor in what the temperature actually
is will be the strength of of the winds through the Cascades and
out of the Fraser River, as well as cloud cover.

The other area of low confidence in the long term is the potential
for precipitation. As mentioned in the short term discussion the
North side of the Olympic Peninsula has some potential for some
marine and terrain enhanced precipitation due to the flow out
of the Fraser River. Also, towards the end of the long term
forecast period we are expecting a transition into warmer
temperatures as the surface high is forced further east due to an
incoming weather system. As this weather system moves in it will
bring some additional moisture. With this moisture and still
relatively cold temperatures, the best chance for seeing lowland
snow would be at the start of the weekend. But this is still a
long ways away and it will greatly depend on how much moisture is
added, where the system tracks, and how fast the temperatures are
rising here in Western Washington.

Butwin

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Archive that CMC run. Might be the craziest one you’ll ever see.

That is without a doubt the coldest single run I’ve ever seen for the PNW.  Edges out a couple from January 2005, at least based on memory.  And that includes long range GOOFUS stuff.

[Perturbed Member]

22 minutes ago, Requiem said:

At the same time I like that we have the amount of cold air to tap into that we do. In the end I feel like areas that are influenced by the gorge will be okay.

Yeah the ridiculous cold air nearby can go a long way towards bailing us out of many things. 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That is without a doubt the coldest single run I’ve ever seen for the PNW.  Edges out a couple from January 2005, at least based on memory.  And that includes long range GOOFUS stuff.

Yeah I doubt those mega cold solutions verify...but it’ll still get pretty d*mn cold it looks like! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hammer all of us King EURO!

[Perturbed Member]

24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I get the feeling it’ll actually work out alright...sometimes these things don’t trend north after all. With a massive supply of cold air to work with too...I’m getting a good feeling about this being great on a regional scale. We have more cards in our favor than usual. 

Yeah, I am hoping that arctic push and the shortwave rotating out of the north will mitigate how much further north these lows can push. The Euro is clearly leading the way right now in terms of the track of these storms so this 12z run should be real interesting. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sure hope something like this verifies. Would be nice to see some snow as the arctic front sweeps in, instead of the much more typical scenario of a dry blast followed by a quick-melting slushfest.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I doubt those mega cold solutions verify...but it’ll still get pretty d*mn cold it looks like! 

The door is open for a ton of scenarios.  The Canadian one is pretty close to complete fantasy.

[MWG]

Hope we get something. Looks like the temps around here are going to be low 40's.

[Perturbed Member]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yup… if I took all those model runs seriously I’d be in full-fledged pity party mode right now because they show me getting the short end of the stick snow-wise. This far out, we really don’t know. The good thing is that there are now genuine possibilities for all. Beats the pants off model runs showing nothing but endless torching.

Yeah I doubt your area gets screwed. There will for sure be surprises with the up coming events and at the least I expect northern areas to score with the initial arctic front or one of the later systems that comes along.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Yeah I doubt your area gets screwed. There will for sure be surprises with the up coming events and at the least I expect northern areas to score with the initial arctic front or one of the later systems that comes along.

A lot of the Canadian forum is rooting for an unforecast surface low to develop as the cold outflow on the BC coast interacts with the warmer ocean, and so am I. This sort of thing has delivered the goods for my area more than once, and models seem to have a hard time anticipating it. Add that to a general tendency for things to trend north as the time frame closes and I really don’t have any grounds for pessimism.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Uranium City, Saskatchewen hit -56 this morning, which would set an all-time February low and tie their all-time record low from January 1974. 

[snow_wizard]

I see the absurd run to run consistency of the GFS is still going today.  That graphic Rob posted last night for the last 4 runs said it all.  Every other run bad.  Thankfully the ensemble mean says this thing's a go.

How about that GEM run.  Just your everyday 498 thickness over SEA!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Blizzard777]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only sunny in the shadowed areas... not everywhere.

 

Hence the word locally  

Still breezy though

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

7 was like the coldest temp I experienced west of the cascades (Dec 2009) and there are FIVE lows colder than that in a row. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, ..... said:

It's me PuyallupJon reimagined for the next four years.

Black is beautiful and the best best thing ever. Everything black is wonderful and amazing.

I've seen these types of situatations unfold before.  With the initial shot I'd be happy if things went too far south.  So many times the cold air doesn't make it here 

Paint it black

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look away, look away! Nothing to see here.

[Deweydog]

Euro looks warmer heading into Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

Arctic front snow during the day on Wednesday...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro will be north with the energy of the Pacific. Looks to be way north at 72 already

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Euro looks warmer heading into Thursday.

Yeah the trough is digging west instead of SW allowing battle zone to shift north.

[Blizzard777]

29 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

We recently had our last outdoor faucet converted to a frost proof one. I don't really like the way they work, but it eliminates covering them.

I’ve had two pipes burst in my lifetime thus far.  Both in the garage and so very thankful for that.   One was in 1996 at my old house in Troutdale and once at my current location. I put in a shutoff valve this time in my garage for the front faucet.  So far so good and don’t want to ever experience a broken water pipe again! 

[TT-SEA]

Once again... the arctic front barely passes Seattle and immediately the precip is roaring in from the west.

 

[TT-SEA]

Snow on Thursday... way north of 00Z run.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah euro is north for Thursday. Rain for PDX and heavy snow up north.

[Kolk1604]

4 PM Thursday 

[snow drift]

A trend north is disconcerting. I'm hoping for the colder solutions.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yikes. Not good for OR. Temps in the mid 20s with bigtime snow here. 

[Requiem]

Nice can’t wait to move to Boulder someday 

[SalemDuck]

Brutal run for oregon

[jakerepp]

7 hours ago, Snowdrift said:

Looks like a sausage

Analog?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

120 hrs the differences in all the major players in the model world is stunning.  

[umadbro]

This trend is typical and not surprising. One day many years from now my daughter will get to experience her first snow storm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Analog?

John Holmes 1977.

[Cloud]

That is quite a dramatic shift. More north than I anticipated.