February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Timmy]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning.  

Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight.

Is it out?

[Cloud]

Wouldn’t be surprise if the WWA gets expanded to include Seattle tonight. In some cases these starts with EPSL then expanded to include more. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

Is it out?

Comes out between 4 and 4:30 p.m.

[kokaneekidz]

Mukilteo is about to be hit with a dark mess of clouds!!! What could be inside of them?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wouldn’t be surprise if the WWA gets expanded to include Seattle tonight. In some cases these starts with EPSL then expanded to include more. 

I am not even following the chance of snow tonight... but this is what the ECMWF showed overnight.     I don't think a WWA is needed for anyone.  

 

[BLI snowman]

The number of model runs showing 24"+ totals between the two storms makes me confident that someone is going to get absolutely pummeled.

[Perturbed Member]

Really hoping that energy coming from BC can dig far enough south to stop these systems from surging north and wiping out our chances to even get cold. It is one thing to just lose the snow but it is much worse to end up 45F+. Glad to see the GFS digs things south fast enough to get it done. Just have to hope the ECMWF hasn't locked onto this idea of keeping that energy bottled up north. Big 18z and 00z ECMWF runs coming up. 

The GEM and ICON are still in their own worlds so will be interesting to see where they end up.

[kokaneekidz]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not even following snow tonight... but this is what the ECMWF showed overnight.     I don't think a WWA is needed for anyone.  

 

The dewpoints dropping hour by hour and the radar lighting up tell a drastically different story Sir.

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning.  

Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight.

Hour 90 should give us some indication of whether it’s trending more south or not wouldn’t it?

[snow_wizard]

The important thing about this run is no single unfavorable trend is being established.  Good enough for now.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I have a feeling once the EURO comes out here shortly we should be seeing a Mark blog post not too long after.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, kokaneekidz said:

The dewpoints dropping hour by hour and the radar lighting up tell a drastically different story Sir.

Yeah... I am sure the ECMWF has no idea about that.  

[wxmet]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning.  

Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight.

Incorrect. The 18z Euro will be good to get insight into the timing of the trough leading up to the event.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Hmm, perhaps PDX is still in the game?

Except it never left? You’re too emotionally invested in this. Models been performing poorly this winter and the fact that there are still no agreement this far out is telling so take them for what they are and shrug it off. 

Try to relax and see how it goes when it’s within 48 hours or so. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

Hour 90 should give us some indication of whether it’s trending more south or not wouldn’t it?

Possibly some indication.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would much rather these systems miss you the south than north. To echo NWsnow 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Incorrect. The 18z Euro will be good to get insight into the timing of the trough leading up to the event.

It will probably be pretty close to the 12Z run based on history.    And just setting expectations that we won't be getting those massive snowfall maps from that run because it stops at hour 90.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Agreed. The 'once it starts trending north it never stops' line of thinking started gaining traction after just two rounds of runs.

Hopefully this will put that to rest... At least temporarily. 

Some will still be freaking out over it no matter what happens...

[kokaneekidz]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am sure the ECMWF has no idea about that.  

I feel the models always have issues with our beloved convergence zone. They either overblow it or disregard it entirely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Happy birthday Rob. I know you are a Chiefs fan, but I hope they lose. Tom Brady is nothing if not gorgeous. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The elephant in the room still is KING EURO!!!!  What's going to happen guys?

The interesting thing about this run is the GFS caved on the undercutting low,  but pushes everything more south.  Given the ECMWF bias to push energy digging westward underneath blocks too easily this could be close to reality.  This run combines the best aspects of recent runs of both models.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, kokaneekidz said:

I feel the models always have issues with our beloved convergence zone. They either overblow it or disregard it entirely.

ECMWF usually does very well with c-zones.   Like scary good.   

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not even following the chance of snow tonight... but this is what the ECMWF showed overnight.     I don't think a WWA is needed for anyone.  

 

We all know the NWS uses a different kind of blend model so while the euro shows nothing, others have hinted at something. That’s probably what they work with. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Forum mood improvement 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would much rather these systems miss you the south than north. To echo NWsnow 

Sooooo true.  

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It will probably be pretty close to the 12Z run based on history.    And just setting expectations that we won't be getting those massive snowfall maps from that run because it stops at hour 90.

Sure, but please keep in mind it's a bit disingenuous to say that there won't be any new information. Everything leading up to it matters.

[Gradient Keeper]

According to the GFS we can begin to watch the progression of arctic air in real-time 4-10 AM Wednesday

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

We all know the NWS uses a different kind of blend model so while the euro shows nothing, others have hinted at something. That’s probably what they work with. 

Good luck betting against the ECMWF at 12 hours out.   

[kokaneekidz]

My friend in Woodinville says it is hailing super hard all of a sudden and temp dropped from 48 to 37 in minutes

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Sure, but please keep in mind it's a bit disingenuous to say that there won't be any new information. Everything leading up to it matters.

True... but the 18Z usually just follows the 12Z run so the people down south should wait for the 00Z run and not despair if the 18Z is not much different.     The 00Z run could be significantly different.  

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not even following the chance of snow tonight... but this is what the ECMWF showed overnight.     I don't think a WWA is needed for anyone.  

 

Second shade of grey! 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Happy birthday Rob. I know you are a Chiefs fan, but I hope they lose. Tom Brady is nothing if not gorgeous. 

Thanks Lol. Yeah, I feel confident if we're up by 17 going into the 4th, but if it's close it is really not wise to bet against Brady. He always finds a way pretty much.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, Kayla said:

That's fair. I can understand if you're vehicle is below a quarter of a tank and you want to fill up when a massive storm is imminent but that's not exactly the case here.

I'll just never understand the whole milk/bread/gas runs at just the mere sight of a pending storm.

Growing up in the south it was definitely a thing, and understandable as to why.  Everything shut down.  Out here I have never understood it other than maybe its a mindset of "I would rather not go out if I don't have to."  Very few people in my neighborhood actually park in their garage, and a lot of folks don't even have one, so its a lot of work to get the car cleared, windows thawed, maybe have to shovel around the car to get it out.....all to get a gallon of milk or a loaf of bread.

Of course it's different where you are now with snow on the ground most if not all of the time for a 3-4 month period....

 

As for fuel, I *try* to make sure my wife and I never get below 1/2 tank.  My wife used to drive me crazy because she would always run it til the light came on, but she has finally gotten sick of me nagging her.  I've always told her "murphy's law: that D**n 9.0 earthquake they are warning us about is gonna hit while you are running on fumes."

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Rob, I expect you to reprise your role as "The Gradient Keeper", come Wednesday.

[wxmet]

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Just now, wxmet said:

That is amazing.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good luck betting against the ECMWF at 12 hours out.   

Absolutely. 

[snow_wizard]

GFS ensemble bottoms out at -11.8 with the 850s.  Right in line with the last 3 or 4 runs.  Op and control bottom out around -16.5.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Rob, I expect you to reprise your role as "The Gradient Keeper", come Wednesday.

IF the models dig the arctic trough south with a big backdoor blast I definitely will be more likely Thursday, but I can post the Omak-Kamloops, Omak-Kelowna, Bellingham-Williams Lake before that.

[Requiem]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Except it never left? You’re too emotionally invested in this. Models been performing poorly this winter and the fact that there are still no agreement this far out is telling so take them for what they are and shrug it off. 

Try to relax and see how it goes when it’s within 48 hours or so. 

You’re 100% right about that.