February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temps on Thursday morning... 18Z on top and 12Z on the bottom.

 

Wow that’s horrible. 

[BLI snowman]

Euro killing this thing quickly.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You mean to tell me what the 18z ECMWF for snow ratio tonight for the PSCZ is not temperature dependent? 

I thought you were looking at a precip map....never mind.  Tonight we shouldn't be worried about anyway :).

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, wxmet said:

 

This looks fantastic!

[kokaneekidz]

It appears to have pulled back about 5 degrees in departure from normal. -10 became -5.... Yet the overall warmer than normal colder than normal boundaries appear similar.

[wxmet]

Just have to hope the ECMWF 00z doesn’t take the low into Vancouver

[OysterPrintout]

Not looking good but the setup with that low going 1000 miles north makes the map comparisons look weird obviously

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro killing this thing quickly.

It’s a good model.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I thought you were looking at a precip map....never mind.  Tonight we shouldn't be worried about anyway :).

It's cool. Things are going way too fast for me to even keep up anyway too.

[MossMan]

If the 18z EURO is any precursor to the evening runs...its going to be a rough night on the forum. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Euro out to lunch???  How come every other model shows it different???

[Requiem]

Hopefully the 00Z euro comes around, probably won’t but we can hope.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is there less data input on the euro 18z? Pretty hard to believe it would change that drastically in 6 hrs.

[snow drift]

Ugly

[bainbridgekid]

18z Euro looks like January 2011 unfortunately.

Still pretty much endless potential for both joy and heartache this week. Nature of the beast.

[Cloud]

Literally what I was afraid of with the 12z Euro run today, it was quite an unsettling change. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

SEen this movie to many times

andeew

I'm fully vaccinated now. Let's go catch a movie!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Glad I never uncancelled winter. Terrible run so far

[Gradient Keeper]

We cannot have the arctic trough cutting off to the north.... If this happens Winter is over and I say bring on the 70s.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z Euro looks like January 2011 unfortunately.

That one scarred me I think. We’ve seen similar scenarios like that a couple times since and this one always had that vibe to me. I was hoping the models were possibly handling a similar setup in the mid range better than they did a decade ago this time. Looks like it still takes them a few days to catch onto the fact that modern airmasses are generally too weak to force the pattern like some runs were depicting.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Literally what I was afraid of with the 12z Euro run today, it was quite an unsettling change. 

Why? Friday 00z was bad too and that followed up with 2 good runs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 2011... All time model BUST.

[The Swamp]

The cold air is stretching out from west to east and east to west and not making much progress from north to south.  Happens to us a lot.

[van city]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm fully vaccinated now. Let's go catch a movie!

think about the Feets of snow the GFS is giving you. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning.  

Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight.

The 18z EPS goes out 144hrs. It’s the OP run that stops at 90hrs.

[wxmet]

It should be an axiom that all lows trend north in the PNW.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

The Weenie-ness is at an all time high.  You are gung-ho and then you say winter is over.  

Relax already.....geez.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That one scarred me I think. We’ve seen similar scenarios like that a couple times since and this one always had that vibe to me. I was hoping the models were possibly handling a similar setup in the mid range better than they did a decade ago this time. Looks like it still takes them a few days to catch onto the fact that modern airmasses are generally too weak to force the pattern like some runs were depicting.

Yep, well said.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2011... All time model BUST.

What days of the month did that happen?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2011... All time model BUST.

Well we always have next winter. Hopefully it starts a little sooner. I would be cool with a 2006/07 repeat. 

[Cloud]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Why? Friday 00z was bad too and that followed up with 2 good runs

Today's Euro trends. And also because we're still looking at a set time frame for the upcoming stuff, so 48 hours ago is less accurate than today. We're at a point now where I'd like to think the Euro is locking in. 

Not saying things won't change again, but I didn't like the northward shift today.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

What days of the month did that happen?

I think it was mid month.

[Winterdog]

We are getting near a rug pull here I fear.  Where's Chris?

[Meatyorologist]

y’all...

[bainbridgekid]

For those who don't remember, in January 2011 models showed a series of lows making landfall far enough South for literally 2-3 feet of snow from PDX to Everett. It got within about 4 days and then the PV pushed West of BC out over the ocean instead if digging South over us which forced the lows further North. Seattle got 3" of overunning snow and Bellingham got about 9" from two storms but that was about it.

[wxmet]

Everyone needs to calm down. It’s just one Euro run. 18z EPS will be out soon and we also have the 00z runs later tonight.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Today's Euro trends. And also because we're still looking at a set time frame for the upcoming stuff, so 48 hours ago is less accurate than today. We're at a point now where I'd like to think the Euro is locking in. 

Not saying things won't change again, but I didn't like the northward shift today.

So that's 1 model and the outlier. Others keep us cold and snowy. The Euro has been going back and forth as of late so I'm not buying it yet.

[Winterdog]

We are all gonna get spanked when Jim get's on here again.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Acer said:

We are getting near a rug pull here I fear.  Where's Chris?

All of the evening runs are going to be much warmer...I can feel it in my bones.

[Perturbed Member]

The euro is pretty much threatening to make this entire thing a non event for most of the lowlands. Bellingham and BC will probably be the big winners in the end.

Pray that the euro is confused and that the GFS will come out winning but betting against the euro in the  mid range isn't something I like doing.