February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Perturbed Member]

Totally believable 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is nuts. Lol. Throw it out!

[kokaneekidz]

Thanks for editing the post Tim!

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am trying to remember the model evolution with the second big snowstorm in February 2019 that pounded Eugene.   I remember being convinced it was going to end up right over Seattle and the suppressed solutions won the day.   And I think it was the ECMWF that was too far north initially. 

yep. Wasn't that the one where you were on vacation maybe or whatever and you told your kid he was gonna be missing school cause you assumed northern track and then it went south and crushed both his and my hopes and dreams and also TWL

[Cloud]

The fact that the GFS isn’t going all out north mode is encouraging for prolong sustained cold. Even if it’s doing goofus things. Like I said before,  I’d trade in less snow for more cold. 

[wxmet]

Regional event

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from Wednesday through Saturday at 1 p.m.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low just stalls out totally shredded by east winds. 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am trying to remember the model evolution with the second big snowstorm in February 2019 that pounded Eugene.   I remember being convinced it was going to end up right over Seattle and the suppressed solutions won the day.   And I think it was the ECMWF that was too far north initially. 

That was one of the times I was counting on the north trend to rescue PDX but the euro did cave to the GFS in the end and the low stayed way to the south and it was a southern OR special. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Totally believable 

Major accumulations west valley with upsloping against the coast range. 

[The Swamp]

come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason

i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket

[umadbro]

Good Lord

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Then add to that a massive earthquake which could happen on a 75 degree sunny day, or when there is 2 feet of snow and 10 degrees and no power...Better to be prepared!! 

2001 Nisqually quake I lost two bottles of whisky!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, ..... said:

come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason

i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket

Main thing is that the lows aren’t on a northward trend. That’s the important takeaway. 

[Timmy]

Just now, ..... said:

come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason

i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket

Agreed but usually the uncle is doing crazy things 10+ days would not before day 7

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low just stalls out totally shredded by east winds. 

Gonna need that low to move further north as it occludes to avoid the easterly gradient.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

As long as we can score 2-3 inches over the next couple days in the Puget Sound area, I'd happily send the rest of the snow to our Portland neighbors if it means we can all maintain the cold better.

18z GFS looks pretty dang nice to me!

I need a foot minimum! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ..... said:

come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason

i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket

Not that simple in this situation given that all the runs of all the models have been flailing. 

Sometimes the 18Z GFS picks up on something new and it becomes the trend.   Sometimes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

That was one of the times I was counting on the north trend to rescue PDX but the euro did cave to the GFS in the end and the low stayed way to the south and it was a southern OR special. 

My buddy in Central Oregon got about 3’ in 2 days with that system. We actually did pretty well on the northern edge of the precip shield, but nothing like places further south. 

[Christensen87]

Oh, this is fun. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Gonna need that low to move further north as it occludes to avoid the easterly gradient.

Lol I’d rather it stays where it is...but we will see what happens it still more runs to come. 

[Omegaraptor]

These are daytime temps

[MossMan]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

These are daytime temps

Too warm over my house...Dump it. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, ..... said:

come on guys the 18Z is called the drunkle for a reason

i wouldn't put all of my eggs in that basket

He's all lathered up for the Super Bowl. Then he'll beat up his wife with his Dale Earnhardt memorial mug.

[Timmy]

If the 18z verified, pdx would go from an F to an A+ For this winter

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

These are daytime temps

Low single digits for me with snow.....lol.  I would be in heaven.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Seattle finally get's some of the action now

[Gradient Keeper]

This run is friggin insane for PDX. Mega snow, 15 degree high temp Saturday, oh and PDX-DLS of at least -16mb. Blizzard and damaging east winds. WHICH would be real bad to have power outages in bitter temps! Oh and let's not call people an idiot if they happen to post a model image duplicate if someone else did so prior. Let's not do that. C'MON!!!!

PLEASE let the EURO dig the arctic trough south tonight. PLEASE! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 22 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Thursday through Monday...

 

[snow_wizard]

Alright!  Good looking GFS run.  A good blend of recent GFS and ECMWF runs.  Phew!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Thursday through Monday...

 

I'm okay with this.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

This run is friggin insane for PDX. Mega snow, 15 degree high temp Saturday, oh and PDX-DLS of at least -16mb. Blizzard and damaging east winds. WHICH would be real bad to have power outages in bitter temps! Oh and let's not call people an idiot if they happen to post a model image duplicate if someone else did so prior. Let's not do that. C'MON!!!!

PLEASE let the EURO dig the arctic trough south tonight. PLEASE! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 22 minutes

I really like this run!  Big stuff is still on the table.

[Requiem]

Hmm, perhaps PDX is still in the game?

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

This run is friggin insane for PDX. Mega snow, 15 degree high temp Saturday, oh and PDX-DLS of at least -16mb. Blizzard and damaging east winds. WHICH would be real bad to have power outages in bitter temps! Oh and let's not call people an idiot if they happen to post a model image duplicate if someone else did so prior. Let's not do that. C'MON!!!!

PLEASE let the EURO dig the arctic trough south tonight. PLEASE! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 22 minutes

Portland would be ground zero for the Weather Channel, Mike Seidel or Jim Cantore.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hail here or sleet

[TheNewCulverJosh]

The elephant in the room still is KING EURO!!!!  What's going to happen guys?

[Timmy]

Hard to complain about this

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Hmm, perhaps PDX is still in the game?

It never left the game...every possibility still on the table. I think this will all work out well for everyone but we will see. 

[TT-SEA]

Word of warning... the 18Z EPS only goes out through hour 90 which is now 4 a.m. Thursday morning.  

Don't expect much new information from the ECMWF until 10 p.m. tonight.

[snow drift]

Just now, Timmy said:

Hard to complain about this

Looks good for everybody. Cold lovers and snow lovers can both rejoice.