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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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For the record... I am strongly rooting for the suppressed runs.    I certainly don't want a repeat of 2019.    And everyone wins when it stays south.    I just have a bad feeling after the 12Z ECMWF.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d just be happy with 1” of snow and a couple sub freezing days. 

That is setting sights pretty low.  If we get decent snow cover and the cold hangs in like it appears it might we could come up with some really nice mins.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A really good blend.  Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle.

One of the main reason why I was in favor of the 18z was because it doesn't want to go the north route. So this puts the Sound in the "safe zone" so to speak, while PDX gets dump on, it's still teetering with the edge it seems so a shift north have major implications for them.

Also if there is more suppression leaving us dry, we would still have to contend with a major cold airmass, which I'm ok with.

So yeah, I do think the 18z did give us a good blend solution. Still anyone's guesses how this'll work out. 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the record... I am strongly rooting for the suppressed runs.    I certainly don't want a repeat of 2019.    And everyone wins when it stays south.    I just have a bad feeling after the 12Z ECMWF.

Indeed.  I would love for the Euro just make even a tiny move south to stop the bad momentum on that model.  The GFS has been pretty good this season and the Euro has had some big blunders so we'll see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I’d be happy with just an inch of snow and some cold easterlies.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Super Bowl about to begin... hopefully there is no hail to cover the satellite!  

And wow... that stadium in Tampa is packed.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  I would love for the Euro just make even a tiny move south to stop the bad momentum on that model.  The GFS has been pretty good this season and the Euro has had some big blunders so we'll see.

Jim, what is the minimum high record for the month of February at SeaTac?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the record... I am strongly rooting for the suppressed runs.    I certainly don't want a repeat of 2019.    And everyone wins when it stays south.    I just have a bad feeling after the 12Z ECMWF.

18z NAM also looked really ugly for us and was probably the worst model run today. Never a good sign on a model that has a known Antarctica bias in its "long range".

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GFS extracted data...

Theses are highs beginning on Wednesday for SEA ... 35, 31, 27, 27, 33, 33

That would be historic for sure this late in the winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
18z GEFS Surface temps coldest yet For PDX-GORGE signaling a major low level arctic blast. These are VERY impressive for an ensemble mean!
 
Surface temps, lowest high/low temps
Seattle - 25.1 / 17.7
Portland - 21.2 / 16.5
Bellingham - 17.7 / 6.2
The Dalles - 12.7 / 7.5

What about SLE and EUG?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jim, what is the minimum high record for the month of February at SeaTac?

I think it's 18 from 1989.  For the old city records it's 20 from 1923 and that was mid month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Wasn’t aware I had to define “hailing on and off” more precisely. Obviously when I’m posting temps it’s from my weather station in my backyard, not in town. I’m confused by the nitpicks? Just trying to contribute something.. 

I just used your post as a segue to report local conditions in the area... sorry about that. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The NWS is going for a low of 22 on the coldest night for SEA.  It seems they are on board.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

WRF shows pretty significant snowfall over I-90 with the PSCZ and extends into the EPSL just to the south of North Bend. Also at Sno/King line. Understandable why the NWS puts out a WWA even though the Euro isn't showing much. 

Post it pls

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I really wouldn’t complain if this verified.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-3325600.thumb.png.0faebaab1c7b83cd125cc73aa253e861.png

Took me a second to figure out this. I was thinking...these are the same colors, but are almost 3 times larger.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Overall trend has been pretty consistent in saying I get the shaft when it comes to snow this time. I guess I’ll have to settle for single-digit minima and highs in the teens as a consolation prize (assuming that pans out).

P.S. And I’m still rooting for an unforecast surface low or two to spin up in the cold outflow on the BC coast. Some of those model runs are cumulative over a week out, and we all know how accurate model runs a week out typically are.

while that might be good for your backyard it would be bad for the region

they tend to either cause cold air to be delayed or shunt the cold air to the east

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

WRF shows pretty significant snowfall over I-90 with the PSCZ and extends into the EPSL just to the south of North Bend. Also at Sno/King line. Understandable why the NWS puts out a WWA even though the Euro isn't showing much. 

Just for clarification... the WRF showed most of that snow around North Bend happening over the next couple hours and not during the night. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for clarification... the WRF showed most of that snow around North Bend happening over the next couple hours and not during the night. 

Yeah, Cliff thinks its a 500ft+ scenario and a quick melt as well, especially at around the Sno/King counties line. 

I'm still in favor of what the Euro is showing though.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's 18 from 1989.  For the old city records it's 20 from 1923 and that was mid month.

Ok, I was looking at bremerton and it was 18.2 1989 February.  If I remember right the most consecutive days for bremerton with highs below freezing was Nov 85?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Interesting. Maybe he means buckle up for the model riding? It seems too far out for his conservative style. 

I am sure its about model riding.

I don't care what credentials Mark has... there is not anyone on the planet who knows what will happen at this point.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is quite likely you will be significantly colder and snowier than that.

Lol I am sure it will too. Best to set your expectations low though! Pretty sure we will get more than an inch of snow...but I’d be happy with anything after how this winters been.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Mark seemed to think the 12z EURO seemed pretty reasonable, but said it was just one run, and we shouldn't read to much into it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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