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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

9 more model run cycles to get through with Sunday evenings 00z runs. Can we make it?

Its fragile and probably wont happen. Give up. Now. Save yourself the grief and start looking forward to weather that normal people care about. We should get our first 70 as early as the end of this month.

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0.42” over the past 24 hours. 2.55” on the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Its fragile and probably wont happen. Give up. Now. Save yourself the grief and start looking forward to weather that normal people care about. We should get our first 70 as early as the end of this month.

Of course, no amount of giving up will keep a true weenie from peeking at the next run.  🤪

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18z EPS is colder for every critical time period than the 12z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was in Oregon in December 2008, but the arctic front they had come through NE Oklahoma in Dec 08' was absolutely insane. Bartlesville had a 74/14 day and a 14/8 day the following day. 

That remains my favorite Arctic front I've experienced here. Upper 50s in the afternoon, around 0 by midnight.

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Low. Solar.

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I pour bowling water on my patio to combat green stuff and weeds in cracks.  So far it’s been working 

Wish Mother Nature would help but it just gets worse most years.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Got a chance to catch up on the craziness today.. there were 5-6 pages for me to thru since I last checked 5 hours ago so figured the 18z must've delivered bigly. Wow, that was such an amazing run! Would love to see this bring inside 48-72 hours. 

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3 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

I know that sound you are speaking of and it is hard to describe. We receive post frontal convective bands that stream up the Sierra after a strong cold front has gone through that will drop 5-8" an hour snowfall rates and it makes a different noise than 1-3" snowfall rates for sure. 

That sounds like a blast, man. I’m sure it’s a lot more common out there. 

The heaviest snow I’ve ever experienced was likewise in a convective squall, back in February 2007. Haven’t seen anything even remotely close to it since, not even in a nor’easter.

Barely lasted 20 minutes, but dropped almost 4”. Maybe a bit less but wind made it difficult to measure, and the fact there was a 5” glacier of sleet on the ground from the V-day storm certainly helped accumulations. Still, it’s the only time I’ve ever experienced absolute zero visibility, to date.

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12 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Central Canadian block pushing it west...wacky

Unusual to have a SW-Canada TPV timed perfectly with retrograding -NAO and secondary Pacific block. But, weird setups often = weird outcomes.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Unusual to have a SW-Canada TPV timed perfectly with retrograding -NAO and secondary Pacific block. But, weird setups often = weird outcomes.

I have a bad feeling Matt will say it’s too weird and will not verify. 🥺

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a bad feeling Matt will say it’s too weird and will not verify. 🥺

Well no model run verifies 100%, even 6hrs out. Question is, how close are current solutions to the ultimate outcome (assuming the latter is deterministic and not probabilistic to begin with)?

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22 hours ago, iFred said:

Fun fact- I joked with Ryan about being dogged on his tweets and he quickly sent me a DM encouraging me to kill my self, and something with my mother. Then I got blocked. Stand up dude.

Dude must have a short fuse, I seen him get into arguments before but that’s next level ****

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a bad feeling Matt will say it’s too weird and will not verify. 🥺

Models will look different tomorrow. Sunday too.  But not Monday.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Models will look different tomorrow. Sunday too.  But not Monday.  

What is your take on the current situation.  What is your gut feeling for next week?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

This is about as onboard as we'll get from the NWS. 

They will announce the 12”-24” event on the day of when people are out and about.  

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I'd love to see less snow than February 19 but much colder temps.  I'd take 8 inches of 20 degree snow over 2 feet of 31 degree snow all day long.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I screwed up big time...I told my wife. However we might be okay since she is NOT onboard...Her exact words were “you have said this 3 times now over the last few weeks, I am not falling for this again, it’s not happening” 

Tim will message you his address.

Either take it back or pack your bags.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd love to see less snow than February 19 but much colder temps.  I'd take 8 inches of 20 degree snow over 2 feet of 31 degree snow all day long.

I’ll take the 2ft of 31°F snow and trade you the 8in of powder. Wet snow looks so much prettier on trees/etc.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd love to see less snow than February 19 but much colder temps.  I'd take 8 inches of 20 degree snow over 2 feet of 31 degree snow all day long.

I'd definitely rather take the 2 feet of warmer snow. You can do so much more with warm snow! Hard to have a snowball fight or build a snowman with 20 degree snow!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd love to see less snow than February 19 but much colder temps.  I'd take 8 inches of 20 degree snow over 2 feet of 31 degree snow all day long.

I’ll take the 2ft of 31 degree snow. I don’t need my snow to be powdery.

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'd definitely rather take the 2 feet of warmer snow. You can do so much more with warm snow! Hard to have a snowball fight or build a snowman with 20 degree snow!

I just love seeing the snow blow around on the roads. It's very rare here anymore. Would love to see a real arctic front like December 1990 or November 2010 again. 1990 was king of fronts in my lifetime. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a bad feeling Matt will say it’s too weird and will not verify. 🥺

Well reasoned logic has no place in this weather forum.

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55 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Places like Fargo, Bismarck, and Duluth go below zero tonight and likely remain that way until at least Friday.

This is a historic airmass. Could you even imagine if we had better blocking

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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just love seeing the snow blow around on the roads. It's very rare here anymore. Would love to see a real arctic front like December 1990 or November 2010 again. 1990 was king of fronts in my lifetime. 

Yeah, if I got some heavy snow with an arctic front it would be awesome, but they so rarely deliver here. Because of the Chuckanut Mountains I also tend to be sheltered from the strongest winds. I believe 2010 dropped less than an inch and I don't know how much we got in 1990 although according to Wolf Read maybe part of Skagit got as much as 6".

Cold snow just scares me as well because it suggests all the precipitation may end up going south.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, if I got some heavy snow with an arctic front it would be awesome, but they so rarely deliver here. Because of the Chuckanut Mountains I also tend to be sheltered from the strongest winds. I believe 2010 dropped less than an inch and I don't know how much we got in 1990 although according to Wolf Read maybe part of Skagit got as much as 6".

Cold snow just scares me as well because it suggests all the precipitation may end up going south.

When I worked up in Anchorage, the Chugach mountains and adjacent mountains to the east were snow killers.  It actually is really tough to get a heavy snow there.  Lots of 1-3" snowfalls, meanwhile it is dumping all around.

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19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just love seeing the snow blow around on the roads. It's very rare here anymore. Would love to see a real arctic front like December 1990 or November 2010 again. 1990 was king of fronts in my lifetime. 

Wet snow blows around too. Just need a bit more wind.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

In November 2006 I had 1.5’ of heavy wet snow, then the Arctic front moved in and I got 3-4” of dry power snow...It was the best of both worlds! 

November 2006 is one of my top 3 favorite weather memories. I was in Eastern Washington and came back to a foot of snow and it stayed around for what seemed like forever!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wet snow blows around too. Just need a bit more wind.

Our wet snow is a lot wetter than yours out East. In 2007-08 I got 19" total and not a flake of it fell while the temperature was below 32 degrees. 

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Our wet snow is a lot better than yours out East. In 2007-08 I got 19" total and not a flake of it fell while the temperature was below 32 degrees. 

Largest flakes I ever saw was in Lake Stevens when I lived there.  It was probably 31 degrees and I swear some of them were the size of dollar bills.

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52 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is your take on the current situation.  What is your gut feeling for next week?

My gut doesn’t mean much but the pattern itself is moving toward being a somewhat rudderless mess. That can be a good thing sometimes, but more often than not truly cold continental air needs more help. Those mountains are tall!

A lot of what’s being shown now in the long-mid range is very much dependent on exact timing and phasing. Good luck getting any kind of realistic handle on it any time soon and things will probably look a lot different in a couple days, for better or worse. The only consistent features are a very cold air mass to our north and east and very tentative Pacific blocking. One is good, the other not so much.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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