Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks real strong Not sure how many times we have to explain this... The wx bell map assumes 10:1 ratio. This storm will easily be 20:1 ratio snowfall. So you can pretty much double what the amounts those maps are saying. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 We should probably not post any Weatherbell snow maps with this one to avoid any confusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 DMX is saying GFS is way overdone with qpf amounts for this sytem and leaning towards the Euro. I have zero faith in models after the last couple runs totally changing for this weekend's storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z NAM is showing a healthy wave at HR 84 with 4 inch snow amounts in 3 hours in E SD/W. Minnesota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 6z Parallel GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010206/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010206/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 MKE saying disregard the 0z GFS and snow amounts will be "less than 6 inches" .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WHOLE WEEK.MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO... MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVEZERO... AND BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL ASSURE WIND CHILL ADVISORYHEADLINES FOR SOUTHERN WI.A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN AND WI MON-TUE. THE00Z GFS CAME IN 12 HOURS QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNAND THE 00Z ECMWF. DISREGARDED THIS OUTLIER SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD BEA MONDAY NIGHT TO TUE EVENT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OF LESS THAN 6INCHES. MODELS WILL NEED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... BUT THISMAY END UP BEING ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT DEPENDING ON SNOW AMOUNTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 MKE saying disregard the 0z GFS and snow amounts will be "less than 6 inches" .LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WHOLE WEEK.MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO... MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVEZERO... AND BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL ASSURE WIND CHILL ADVISORYHEADLINES FOR SOUTHERN WI. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN AND WI MON-TUE. THE00Z GFS CAME IN 12 HOURS QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNAND THE 00Z ECMWF. DISREGARDED THIS OUTLIER SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD BEA MONDAY NIGHT TO TUE EVENT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OF LESS THAN 6INCHES. MODELS WILL NEED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... BUT THISMAY END UP BEING ANOTHER ADVISORY EVENT DEPENDING ON SNOW AMOUNTS. I think that's at least partially due to being cautious, MKX loves to make quantitative calls well ahead when they should just use terms like 'several inches possible'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah local met says models are way overdoing it on amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro seems north/stronger with the clipper compared to earlier runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z GFS Par...use your own conversions to depict snowfall....I'd say 20:1 is a good bet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro will likely be correct. GFS's are over doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Hoping this clipper can stay south, and not trend north. As it is, I will be lucky to see 2 inches tomorrow night. Should the cold keep it south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 NAM and Euro are north. GFS' s south. Not that anything can be trusted. Look what just happened for the weekend storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 LOT's Disco on the event NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAYARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT/CONSENSUSAMONG PREVIOUS RUNS AND DIFFERENT MODELS. CURRENT TRACK OF THESURFACE LOW FROM NORTHERN IA TO NORTHERN IL WOULD FAVOR THEHIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI ANDBAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY NARROW. SO WHILECONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...SOMEUNCERTAINTY REMAINS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. FORECASTSOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GROWTH ZONE OF AT LEAST 100MBAND POSSIBLY AS DEEP AS 200MB WITH AN EFFICIENT SNOWFALL EXPECTEDWITH A CONSISTENT QPF FORECAST OF TWO TO THREE TENTHS. WHILE ITIS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS OR STORM TOTALS...SEVERALINCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS PAR... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 150105/2100Z 87 27008KT 6.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0150106/0000Z 90 22007KT 7.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0150106/0300Z 93 19012KT 11.2F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0150106/0600Z 96 19012KT 13.5F SNOW 17:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202 17:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150106/0900Z 99 18015KT 17.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135 16:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0150106/1200Z 102 22011KT 20.9F SNOW 25:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 16:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0150106/1500Z 105 32014KT 21.3F SNOW 23:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 17:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 018Z GFS Bufkit is showing 6.6 inches at ORD with 0.4 QPF. Ratios get as high as 25:1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks further south than what LOT described Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks further south than what LOT describedIndeed, and what we have learned from the past is that arctic air likes to push things south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS starting to lose some of those higher lollipop totals that were showing on yesterday's runs. Hopefully that doesnt become a trend. Would be great to see a widespread 6"+ system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Doubt we see widespread 6" with a clipper. I'm down for a solid 2-4" event, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 2" of fluff that is all folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS starting to lose some of those higher lollipop totals that were showing on yesterday's runs. Hopefully that doesnt become a trend. Would be great to see a widespread 6"+ system. It wont. The combination of strong WAA, fronto banding, and an extremely deep DGZ all lead to the threat of warning criteria amounts 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 It wont. The combination of strong WAA, fronto banding, and an extremely deep DGZ all lead to the threat of warning criteria amountsI agree completely, this looks to be a really nice set up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I agree completely, this looks to be a really nice set up.The question then becomes, where will it track? Model guidance doing nothing to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 00z NAM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 The question then becomes, where will it track? Model guidance doing nothing to help.We look to be in a pretty good spot snowman. There is a bit of model discrepancy, but generally the track is fairly similar between the Euro, GFS, PGFS and even the NAM. The NAM and Euro are a tinge north of the GFS and PGFS, but not by much. It's going to take a huge shift for us to somehow miss out completely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 We look to be in a pretty good spot snowman. There is a bit of model discrepancy, but generally the track is fairly similar between the Euro, GFS, PGFS and even the NAM. The NAM and Euro are a tinge north of the GFS and PGFS, but not by much. It's going to take a huge shift for us to somehow miss out completely.Yeah, consistency of the GFS is nice, good to have the GFS-Parallel jumping on board. I don't like the differences between the ECMWF and NAM, but the fact that they're showing the storm in the first place is a plus. Added bonus is the NAM favoring heavy snow into the LOT CWA, somewhat in line with the GFS idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 The question then becomes, where will it track? Model guidance doing nothing to help. Nothing? Dude we're 84hrs out. What do you expect? Every model to be locked in? It's fast moving, open wave along a baroclinic zone that right now is currently not getting sampled south of Alaska over the nrn pac. Given those factors and what the models are currently showing, I'd say there is a decent consensus right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nothing? Dude we're 84hrs out. What do you expect? Every model to be locked in? It's fast moving, open wave along a baroclinic zone that right now is currently not getting sampled south of Alaska over the nrn pac. Given those factors and what the models are currently showing, I'd say there is a decent consensus right nowThat's not what I'm getting at. Broad picture, yes, there's certainly a consensus of a potent clipper moving into the Midwest and on eastward. That's well agreed upon. Maybe saying models were doing nothing to help was a bit excessive. But we've got noticeable differences between global models and ensembles. When you add in that this could be a high-impact event (not to mention the first storm threat of the season), you're bound to expect model guidance to get a grip, sooner rather than later. The concern deepens when the GFS, with its 7-run-streak of a N.IL/E.IA bullseye, dropped south tonight and broke the streak. These are the "little things" that quickly blow up in these high-impact events. Perhaps this is why staring at models can get really old, really fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 What i love about this snowstorm Monday into Tuesday how cold it will be Wednesday Temps may struggle to get to Zero where i'm at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Add in Windchill were talking 30-40 below zero Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 That's not what I'm getting at. Broad picture, yes, there's certainly a consensus of a potent clipper moving into the Midwest and on eastward. That's well agreed upon. Maybe saying models were doing nothing to help was a bit excessive. But we've got noticeable differences between global models and ensembles. When you add in that this could be a high-impact event (not to mention the first storm threat of the season), you're bound to expect model guidance to get a grip, sooner rather than later. The concern deepens when the GFS, with its 7-run-streak of a N.IL/E.IA bullseye, dropped south tonight and broke the streak. These are the "little things" that quickly blow up in these high-impact events. Perhaps this is why staring at models can get really old, really fast. It was run set of runs..it will change. Also, if you live by the models, you'll die by the models when you talk about "staring at the models". Actually forecast. The model is just spitting out stuff. This is what in short, separates TV mets from the NWS pros. TV mets look at exactly model output and take it to the bank and usually die by it since there is never going to be a perfect prog. NWS mets actually forecast. They are take what is given to them by the models and then use their own knowledge and continue on. I'd bet there probably isn't a TV met out there besides a select few that could actually write an NWS AFD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Dropped south a little. Rather be on the northern side then on the southern side of this system. Those southern cut offs on Clippers are usually pretty sharp. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Does the arctic push south begin???? Saw it way to many times last year...I still think IA/S WI/N IL are in a good spot. Your going to see oscillations back and forth run to run. No biggie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Doubt we see widespread 6" with a clipper. I'm down for a solid 2-4" event, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 00z Euro took a jog south from its 12z run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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