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1.11" is my rain total.  I'm satisfied with that.

Picked up 3.3" of rain at my house the last couple of days in strong storms with some small hail, but nothing particularly severe. We did score a tornado watch here for the first time since 2019

Here are some more short vids and pics from my trip.  Thursday and Friday were the best days weather wise.  Spending time along the ocean is such a treat when HP is over the region in the spring.  The

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Well the new 1991-2020 averages have been released, not too surprising that much of the country is warmer. But something isn't right for Lincoln, I'll include in next post

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

Normals%20Temp%20Diff.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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At LNK here's some of the new averages(1981-2010 in parentheses): 

Avg temp: 52.3 (51.5)

Precip: 29.34" (28.95")

Snowfall: 26.0" (25.9")

image.thumb.png.b67f63f44e7f1e3e11d79b134b9ac7e0.png

The shift from snow in Nov/March to Jan/Feb is pretty apparent, as well as wetter winters and drier summers. This seems right, except temps are about 0.5-0.6 warmer than they should be. Just using the NWS NOWData tool you can see the discrepancy. I was thinking maybe they calculate normals some other way, but doing the same thing for 1981-2010 you get the exact same numbers as the official averages. 

540827122_LNKmax91-20.PNG.25fcd6e020f75da3504f0f88eee2efbd.PNG16785714_LNKmin91-20.PNG.22b86c6f4adedb3b338d5ae0b080edea.PNG

 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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36 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well the new 1991-2020 averages have been released, not too surprising that much of the country is warmer. But something isn't right for Lincoln, I'll include in next post

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

Normals%20Temp%20Diff.png

What is apparent in that temperature profile is an era when the warm tropics have ruled the climate near the continent. 2 super Niños and a monster Modoki in there, plus the PAC being anomalously warm (PDO+ or at times ++, Aleutian Warm pooling) are all contributions here in my opinion. 

It's compelling that the interior has cooled, and is a trend I look to see continue over the next 10 years. Especially if we enter an era of warmth from the central Pacific west while the PDO goes neg. Changes are coming over the next 18 months to 3 years, imo.

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Gonna be a beautiful evening to take a walk, smoke a pork loin with some veggies over the charcoal and burn a huge pile of sticks i picked up from spring clean up.

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Chilly morning here with some scattered frost, hopefully my tomatoes and pepper plants made it through.  Had a low of 38 forcasted low was 43.  Nice warm up coming today as temps should get close to 70.

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It is looking like HP will suppress the Mother's Day weekend system farther south compared to recent days of model runs.  The 00z EPS is eyeing @CentralNebWeather S & E towards @Clinton and the rest of the KC crew.  While those north & east miss out on the rains this week or weekend, the signal is growing stronger for more bountiful chances of precip as we head into the following weekend.  "Warmer and Stormier" is what I'm thinking will happen for a lot of those who have been missed next weekend.

 

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Happy Cinco De Mayo!  One of my favorite "foodie" holidays is eating some fine Mexican food.

 

I saw this interesting tweet from @ryanmaue:

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How bad is the Phoenix heat island? Our newest and best weather models include cityscape land-surfaces that show up like Death Valley at sunset. Brutal
 
Fire
 
🌡
 
Woozy face
 
 
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Quote Tweet
 
 
EowvkH3T_mini.jpg
 
Ryan Maue
 
@RyanMaue
The urban heat islands of Las Vegas and Phoenix are getting much worse, as the entire Western US shifts to a more arid climate regime. But Vegas and Phoenix are in the desert so not much can be done except plant drought tolerant plants and conserve water

 

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The new 30 year averages are now out. This time there is also a new 15 year average to compare for more recent times.
Here at Grand Rapids the annual mean went up from 49.1 to 49.3 The new annual snow fall at Grand Rapids is now 77.6" up from the old 74.9" The total precip went up from 38.27 to 39.40. While most months went up in temperature not all did as February, April and November went down.

At this time it is cloudy and 45 here.

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21 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well the new 1991-2020 averages have been released, not too surprising that much of the country is warmer. But something isn't right for Lincoln, I'll include in next post

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

Normals%20Temp%20Diff.png

In my mind it seems like for the last 20+ years it has unanimously been touted that climate change will lead to a disproportional increase of average temperatures for areas of the northern plains and upper midwest versus say coastal climates for example.  Coastal climate change is moderated oceans, which even if warmed still serve to moderate coastal extremes.  Is my memory correct?

It seems that the update in 30 year averages from 1980-2010 to 1990-2020 should be the first definitive data point in which the warming over the northern plains and upper midwest is clearly evident.  Yet, there seems to be little difference in this geographical area versus all others of the CONUS.  What gives?  

 

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Summers haven't gotten too bad in recent years and the polar vortex has been a frequent visitor. I think the only months that have gotten significantly warmer in the north central U.S. are December plus probably the Sept/Oct period. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. definitely doesn't get as cold as it used to. The cold wave in February was the lowest temps dropped in Memphis in 32 years (down to 1 compared to -4 in 1989). Before the 90s, flirting with zero mark or lower a few times a decade was basically expected. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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We did it!  PHX officially made it to 100F today.  Another Hot one expected tomorrow as the forecast calls for 101F.

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An interesting battle shaping up between the Euro and GFS for the Mother's Day weekend slider.  This is quite the storm that is being advertised.  It certainly has that look of a winter type mid lat cyclone that wraps up and slides east out of the Rockies.

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The Euro is still advertising a nice warm up by end of next week/weekend...starts earlier out in the Plains states...I'm diggin' this!

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I just looked at the 00z EPS and the general trend has been N with the track of this storm system and coming more in line with the GFS/GEFS.

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Nope, it wasn't UFO's that flew overhead but in fact it was the Starlink satellites in orbit!  Pretty neat stuff.  At night, where I am, you can see satellites traverse the skies every night.  There isn't a night where I can't count at least 2 or 3 of them.  It reminds me of how much our human race has leaped forward in technology and is undoubtedly connected to the stars in the Universe.

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Back to the weather, looking out in the extended, I'm still seeing a good signal that a more warmer pattern is setting up which will be welcomed after the upcoming 7 day period.  A major rise in the SOI, -PNA and +EPO suggest a ridge to build into the central Plains.  The only caviat I see is how strong does the blocking up north negate the warmer weather across the Northern parts of our Sub???  That remains to be seen.  Nonetheless, it is going to feel a lot better for many of us by next weekend and the farmers should be delighted.

1615890579_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(1).gif

 

 

The JMA weeklies agree that by Week 2 a seasonal look is shaping up across the central CONUS...a very wet pattern as well...

 

Y202105.D0512_gl2.png

 

Y202105.D0512_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4 is trending towards the long standing call that we see Summer showing signs of sustained life by the end of May???

Y202105.D0512_gl2.png

 

The 500mb pattern over the west coast and the east coast/GL's could very well set up a favorable warm regime and thus produce a ridge over trough pattern across the S Plains.  Let's see what the Euro weeklies show later today.

Y202105.D0512_gl0.png

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At this time it is cloudy here and 47. With a blink of the eye and the new averages the snow fall departure at Grand Rapids went from -28.8" to -31.5" so that means last winters 46.1" of total snow fall was about over 2 and a half feet below the new average.

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The UK has joined the GFS in showing more rain farther north this weekend.  That would be great.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS and NAM much further north for the weekend rain, GFS even shows a pocket of heavy snow in NE Iowa and southern WI.  Euro remains further south than the GFS though.  

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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So far the official high here at Grand Rapids has been just 48 if this holds until midnight this will tie for the 3rd coldest maximum for any May 6th and it would have to get to 54 to not be a top 10 coldest May 6 in recorded history. So the year of extremes continues. The current temperature of 44 is -19° for the 5PM average temperature for May 6th.

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Yesterdays official high at Grand Rapids of 48 was the 4th coldest maximum and it was the coldest maximum since 1906. The official over night low of 33 will be the 9th coldest low for today. At this time it is foggy here with visibility of around a ¼ mile. The current temperature here at my house is 34.

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00z Euro/EPS maintain a southerly track while the GFS/GEFS are farther north....

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This would be a nail biter situation if I was tracking this storm during the cold season...nonetheless, some heft precip is going to be delivered by this system.

06z RGEM...

rgem_apcpn_ncus_82.png

 

 

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If we are to believe the 00z EPS, a sustained warm up is on deck from next weekend into the following week...not only that, but an active pattern is shaping up for the 2nd half of May esp for those who have been quite dry of late.

1446896533_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates2-mTemperatureAnom(1).gif

 

I took a glance at the Euro weeklies from yesterday and they, to, suggest this warm signal to have some legs.  It may get interrupted by Memorial Day weekend, however, but then another warm signal shows up as we enter June.  Summer heat by late month for parts of the Plains/Upper MW??  It's been on my calendar for some time now.

Yesterday, PHX made it to 101F and that makes it 2 days in a row hitting the century mark and it appears that next week there may very well be a string of 100's.  

 

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The RDPS has inched north, now has a soaking rain up to Cedar Rapids.  The Euro still barely drops anything here.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The official overnight low of 32 makes today the 7th coldest low for any May 7th in recorded history at Grand Rapids and the coldest May 7th low since 1947.  Will let you know later how todays high plays out but it will be in the top 15 or less. And with lows forecasted in the low 30’s for the next several nights that will continue to be the case. At this time just had a brief shower and the temperature is now at 48 here. The 30 year average reading for 12noon at Grand Rapids is 61.2.

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52 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The RDPS has inched north, now has a soaking rain up to Cedar Rapids.  The Euro still barely drops anything here.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

I think it will come back N on the 12z run...trends in the GEFS/GEPS have been rock steady...

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_fh60_trend.gif

 

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Yesterday the UK lifted the 1+" precip north through Cedar Rapids.  The last two runs have each gone back south, now down to 0.4" here.  The Euro has never budged from its south track.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro still south

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice to see the Euro/EPS follow suit and trend North...below is the 00z EPS...

 

2.png

 

I don't have my notebook handy to be able to look back at previous LRC cycles, but what I'm seeing in the modeling for late next weekend into the following week starkly reminds me of the LRC pattern which parks a trough in the SW creating a SW Flow aloft.  This is a bonafide major warm signal for our Sub Forum.  Is this the summer pattern we have been waiting for?  Sure looks like it.

 

Could summer temps be coming in earlier???  Boy, the 00z EPS is certainly looking mighty nice in terms of temps and precip chances.

 

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Is the traditional Tornado Alley going to come alive???  I think so.  Severe Wx looks ideal in this set up and I think we may be heading into a very active pattern with multiple days of severe wx potential starting late next weekend.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 This morning's NAM model showing a nasty bow echo moving through KC overnight could be a lot of wind with that one.

No doubt...

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

I hope this is right bc that'll put a dent into the drought conditions for the lower lakes...1-2" of rain would be welcomed...

namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

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The SD black hills are awesome, I gotta come in the winter some time! The drive here was interesting as well since I had never been west of Kearney. The sand hills is probably the most desolate region of the country east of the Rockies. It was quite the peaceful drive (except at one point I was about to pee my pants and had to go on the side of the road ☠️)

8BC65070-CAC8-436A-9C99-6A500D864627.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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I hope the HRRR is onto something with its prediction of a heavy band through the northern part of the rain shield.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The UK has been one of the drier models for the northern edge.  Today's 12z run changed that.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Final Euro is very close to the UK

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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