February 2014 in the PNW

[Snow]

OOZ GFS Thursday at 10pm, lots of snow for the Valley, just move this up a little bit. 

 

http://oi60.tinypic.com/13z4r3n.jpg

[TT-SEA]

WRF is way south on Thursday as well:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp1.45.0000.gif

[GobBluth]

This may all change at the last minute, but lets all take a moment to bow to the wisdom of the GEM for going with the southern solution days ago.

[FroYoBro]

The NAM and GFS mesoscale models don't bring precipitation very far North for the Thursday system. 

[epiceast]

This may all change at the last minute, but lets all take a moment to bow to the wisdom of the GEM for going with the southern solution days ago.

GEM is going even further south, Saturday would be a non event for Seattle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-7 at Sherman pass. Not to shabby.

[snow_wizard]

I love this GFS run. The gradients stay favorable for offshore winds much longer, but at the same the gradients are weaker than previous runs so the East Puget Sound lowlands won't have to contend with too much easterly flow which would kill the moisture. This could be good.

[HighlandExperience]

GEM is going even further south, Saturday would be a non event for Seattle.

 

The GEM aint no gem. 

[BLI snowman]

The NAM and GFS mesoscale models don't bring precipitation very far North for the Thursday system. 

 

Of course yesterday neither mesoscale model showed anything on Thursday. Trend is in the operational's camp, for now.

[FroYoBro]

Of course yesterday neither mesoscale model showed anything on Thursday. Trend is in the operational's camp, for now.

I was thinking the same thing. They also didn't show the showers we had today. 

[epiceast]

The NAM and GFS mesoscale models don't bring precipitation very far North for the Thursday system. 

The mesoscale models are not designed to deal with this kind of stuff.

[snow_wizard]

GEM is going even further south, Saturday would be a non event for Seattle.

Going to be a nail biter. Somebody between Eugene and Everett is probably going to get the goods. No matter what the cold looks to last a day longer than previously thought.

[GHweatherChris]

The 00 GFS shows a nice all day snow event on Saturday up this way, thats good to see.

[Snow]

New KGW Forecast:

 

http://belo.bimedia.net/KGW/weather/stills/7day.jpg

[BLI snowman]

New KGW Forecast:

 

http://belo.bimedia.net/KGW/weather/stills/7day.jpg

 

Looks pretty reasonable.

[Snow]

Looks pretty reasonable.

 

Yeah looks like a good solid 3 day event, maybe even longer.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think this sums it up well for the Puget Sound... NWS 

 

.... LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO WET WEATHER. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TRANSITION. THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COLD/DRY WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES
ALOFT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS PRECIP
STARTING AS SNOW /SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING/...THEN CHANGING OVER TO
ALL RAIN SAT NIGHT AS WARMER MARINE AIR SURGES INLAND. HOWEVER...
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS
ARE NOT ALIGNED. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW MORE CYCLES UNTIL THEY
LATCH ONTO A SOLID SOLUTION. THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING OF
THE SNOW/RAIN TRANSITION AND THE TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS.

THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL AS A
SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS THE PAC NW. 33

[The Swamp]

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

 

 

You don't say?!

[The Swamp]

You don't say?!

I was trying to post up Steve Pools extended forecast.  It turned into a mess.  I'm not techno savvy.

[Snow]

If it does snow starting Thursday afternoon/night, I bet some of the public will be mad that they warned so late when it showed sunshine through Friday.

[snow_wizard]

26 and windy here after a 33-20 high/low today.  I expect the temp will begin to fall nicely when it clears out a little bit later.

[westcoastexpat]

If it does snow starting Thursday afternoon/night, I bet some of the public will be mad that they warned so late when it showed sunshine through Friday.

 

There will definitely be riots in the streets because everyone remembers when weather forecasts had shown sunshine instead of flurries 3 days prior. I hope businesses remember to board up their windows.

[Perturbed Member]

Anyone have any idea of why the MM5 NAM an WRF GFS are so different from the operational runs? Kind of unusual to see such a huge difference. They are so much further south with the Thursday system.

[Snow]

GFS output shows 0.17 precip for PDX with the Thursday afternoon system. Salem 0.22 and Eugene 0.64.

 

PDX: 1" to 2.5"

SLE:  1.5" to 3"

EUG: 5" to 8"

[Guest Winterdog]

26 and windy here after a 33-20 high/low today.  I expect the temp will begin to fall nicely when it clears out a little bit later.

Clouds look to be hanging on pretty tough up here. The temp hasn't really dropped off much in the last two hours. I had a high of 36 after a low of 23. Wow, 33-20! I remember when I used to out cold you with regularity but not this year. You are going to out snow me too!

[MossMan]

currently 26 here, has started dropping off over the last hr or so.

[luvssnow_spokane]

26 and windy here after a 33-20 high/low today.  I expect the temp will begin to fall nicely when it clears out a little bit later.

Wow you stayed cold!!  I was 36/26 here. Must be the swamp winds. D**n you PuyallupJohn!!!  Currently 28.8

[GHweatherChris]

WRF is a big pile of s**t for snow up here.

[brody]

I smell bust coming with the EURO

 

Just a gut feeling

[The Swamp]

WRF is a big pile of s**t for snow up here.

Maybe Steve Pool will be right?

[Parksvillewx]

Was cold here today too.  35 high. Currently 23.  Crystal clear here right now.  Amazing how much clearer the moon and stars look with this airmass.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

According to the mm5 most of western was gets no snow through the weekend.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'm worried about the Euro sucking tonight.  Guess we will find out shortly.

[FroYoBro]

According to the mm5 most of western was gets no snow through the weekend.

I don't believe that will be accurate. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

According to the mm5 most of western was gets no snow through the weekend.

  <_ honestly i would not be surprised. no biggie really. all got the cold right folks src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_rolleyes.gif" alt=":rolleyes:">

[epiceast]

mm5 is off rails at this point

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Either the mm5 is out to lunch or the operational gfs is. What the gfs shows would be a fair amount of snow for most places.Strange.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

mm5 is off rails at this point

I agree.

[Snow]

Either the mm5 is out to lunch or the operational gfs is. What the gfs shows would be a fair amount of snow for most places.Strange.

 

MM5 is out to lunch.