February 2014 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

First time in forever I can remember the NWS doing intermediate discussions.  Nice to know they're paying attention.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the latest version of the HRRR model keeps all precip south of Portland tomorrow.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020604&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
1059 PM PST WED FEB 5 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW...WHICH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...BEGINNING MIDDAY THURSDAY...PEAK INTENSITY IN THE
EVENING...AND TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATION...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* WIND...EAST WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...DETERIORATING TO NEAR ZERO AS SNOW INCREASES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
WILL ALSO LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VISIBILITY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...MULTNOMAH FALLS...CASCADE LOCKS...CORBETT.

* IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE GORGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS..

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

[luterra]

Rather unfortunate timing:

 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 530 PM WED FEB 5 2014  ...NOTICE OF MESOWEST WEATHER STATIONS OUTAGE THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6TH  2014...  ROUTINE NETWORK MAINTENANCE CONDUCTED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH WILL  CAUSE ALL MESOWEST WEBSITE PRODUCTS ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WEBPAGE TO BE EITHER UNAVAILABLE OR NOT CURRENT THURSDAY MORNING  INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ALL MESOWEST LDM PRODUCTS AND  API SERVICES WILL LIKELY BE UNAVAILABLE OR NOT UP TO DATE. THE ROMAN  WEBSITE...HTTP://RAWS.WRH.NOAA.GOV/ROMAN/ WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING  THE DOWNTIME PERIOD. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE. 

[luminen]

Lucky buggers.

[Deweydog]

FWIW... the latest version of the HRRR model keeps all precip south of Portland tomorrow.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020604&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

 

Gaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That HRR also shows way less precip then any other model.

[HighlandExperience]

FWIW... the latest version of the HRRR model keeps all precip south of Portland tomorrow.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020604&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

If that verified even Portland would be screwed. I don't buy it though because everything else seems to contradict it.

[Deweydog]

If that verified even Portland would be screwed. I don't buy it though because everything else seems to contradict it.

 

Not everything.  Fact is, there's still a tangible bust potential here for anyone probably north of about Wilsonville.  The NWS at this point doesn't have much of a choice but to pull the trigger, though.  Can't blame them if the most critical part of the warning area fails to come even close to verifying.  

[chopper 918]

FWIW... the latest version of the HRRR model keeps all precip south of Portland tomorrow.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020604&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

The what model? Is that one that is run off a Commodore 64 from somebody's mom's basement?

[Gradient Keeper]

11:10 PM Update
Water Vapor shows our low developing now. It might be hard to pick out, but if you look closely you’ll see an obvious twisting motion or circulation near 46.9 N, 132 W.
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4

 

I also highlighted about roughly where the baroclinic band(band of snow) will set up. It could be just a bit further north as well.
http://i59.tinypic.com/2lto612.png

[whitechristmas]

FWIW... the latest version of the HRRR model keeps all precip south of Portland tomorrow.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020604&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

 

Obviously it holds no value.

[Snow]

http://geeksjourney.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/34516446.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

11:10 PM Update

Water Vapor shows our low developing now. It might be hard to pick out, but if you look closely you’ll see an obvious twisting motion or circulation near 46.9 N, 132 W.http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4

 

I also highlighted about roughly where the baroclinic band(band of snow) will set up. It could be just a bit further north as well.http://i59.tinypic.com/2lto612.png

Looks slightly farther north. Tomorrow morning will be interesting.

[Skagit Weather]

Arlington down to 14F now while here it is 21F.

[snow_wizard]

There is hope for some of the people in Western WA.  This is from the 0z ECMWF.  A couple of big differences on the ECMWF are a stronger surface low, slightly further north track, and more of a WSW flow at the 500mb level as opposed to WNW on the other models.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble strongly supported the WSW flow which drives the low further north.

 

 

[Snow]

There is hope for some of the people in Western WA.  This is from the 0z ECMWF.  A couple of big differences on the ECMWF are a stronger surface low, slightly further north track, and more of a WSW flow at the 500mb level as opposed to WNW on the other models.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble strongly supported the WSW flow which drives the low further north.

 

I hope it goes further north so everybody can get significant snow.

[HighlandExperience]

There is hope for some of the people in Western WA.  This is from the 0z ECMWF.  A couple of big differences on the ECMWF are a stronger surface low, slightly further north track, and more of a WSW flow at the 500mb level as opposed to WNW on the other models.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble strongly supported the WSW flow which drives the low further north.

Encouraging. The euro has been consistent with northern track.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm with Dewey, its much more likely to take a more southern track then a more northern track.

[Gradient Keeper]

Is anyone having fun tonight?

[snow_wizard]

Encouraging. The euro has been consistent with northern track.

 

 

Yeah...this run actually spits out more snow than 12z did earlier today, and that run was snowier than the 0z last night.  Another thing to remember is that map represents a 10 to 1 snow to water ratio when in fact any snow in WA will be more like 20 to 1.  If it's correct I could get about 2.5".  I could live with that.

[snow_wizard]

I'm with Dewey, its much more likely to take a more southern track then a more northern track.

 

I thought he said it's pretty normal for things to trend more north as the time frame narrows.

[seattleweatherguy]

dp at -5 wow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z NAM has the low off of Coos Bay at 10am. 

 

And Dewey said there is the potential the precip doesn't really make it past Wilsonville...I think it will, but I do agree the potential for that does exist. I think EUG to SLE is sitting in the best shape right now.

[BLI snowman]

06z NAM has the low off of Coos Bay at 10am. 

 

And Dewey said there is the potential the precip doesn't really make it past Wilsonville...I think it will, but I do agree the potential for that does exist. I think EUG to SLE is sitting in the best shape right now.

 

Looks like it trended a bit north again.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM is further north for tomorrow compared with 00z NAM. 

[snow_wizard]

The trajectory on the radar echoes gives me some hope.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LGX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

[epiceast]

The trajectory on the radar echoes gives me some hope.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LGX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

Ugh... Just a tad bit north please 

 

I think 12z Euro will verify

[Perturbed Member]

Ugh... Just a tad bit north please 

 

I think 12z Euro will verify

 

I suspect light accumulations will occur as far north as Olympia, or maybe a bit more even. All the models are trending north. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Newport is at 27 with E winds gusting to 36 mph. 

[Deweydog]

I thought he said it's pretty normal for things to trend more north as the time frame narrows.

 

You have to look at the players on the field.  Every situation is different and in a case like this I don't think you can just assume the natural model variance will be north.  In this case, I would think it would be south given the fact the cold is fairly well-entrenched.  

[snow_wizard]

Ugh... Just a tad bit north please 

 

I think 12z Euro will verify

 

That's way better than what NCEP models were showing.  The precip is moving almost straight east instead of SE.

[Deweydog]

That's way better than what NCEP models were showing.  The precip is moving almost straight east instead of SE.

 

I don't want to rain on your parade, but that moisture offshore really has nothing to do with the dynamics that is going to lead to whatever happens inland tomorrow.  

[snow_wizard]

You have to look at the players on the field.  Every situation is different and in a case like this I don't think you can just assume the natural model variance will be north.  In this case, I would think it would be south given the fact the cold is fairly well-entrenched.  

 

We shall see.  The ECMWF seems to have an idea of a stronger more north low.

[snow_wizard]

I don't want to rain on your parade, but that moisture offshore really has nothing to do with the dynamics that is going to lead to whatever happens inland tomorrow.  

 

It just gives some idea of trajectories.  I admit I really have no idea how this will play out.

[Perturbed Member]

You have to look at the players on the field.  Every situation is different and in a case like this I don't think you can just assume the natural model variance will be north.  In this case, I would think it would be south given the fact the cold is fairly well-entrenched.  

Makes sense, but most of the models have been trending north now for several runs. Does't that mean anything?

[Deweydog]

We shall see.  The ECMWF seems to have an idea of a stronger more north low.

 

Absolutely.  It may end up right, but there's a very real possibility it could bust.  It's a close call and I certainly wouldn't want to be in the NWS/media's shoes right now.  At this point they've done what they need to do based on the fact there's some strong support, but if the metro area is essentially snow-free come this time tomorrow, they'll be taking some heat.  That's why they make the big bucks...

[Deweydog]

It just gives some idea of trajectories.  I admit I really have no idea how this will play out.

 

Trajectory really isn't the issue.  The low itself is progged by all the models to meander a bit.  

[luminen]

First flakes falling now very lightly.

 

edit: okay, it's not very lightly. I'm upgrading it to light but small flakes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Midnight temps

 

PDX - 21

SLE - 23

EUG - 24

 

What do you all think for highs today?