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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Who's ready for Autumn???  What has been one of the more hot and humid summers in recent memory, I think its fair to say that the majority of us on here are ready for some cooler wx.  The change of seasons will be upon us by Labor Day weekend for primarily the northern half of the Sub as it stands now.  The southern tier will have to wait a bit longer but you'll get your relief by Week 2-3 based on the data I'm seeing.  Let's dive into the finer details and discuss...

The pattern that keeps on giving will seemingly continue for the Northwoods and Upper MW regions.  This is one of the more notable reversals in the overall pattern we have seen since late May I believe.  0z EPS sniffing out not 1 but 2 significant rounds of precip for the north and one of them is poised to be rather significant as it will incorporate the remnants of a tropical system over Labor Day weekend.

 

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If the models are correct, and I believe they are, the amount of blocking showing up along the W NAMER coast and the high lat's will produce a pattern where I could see numerous Autumnal CF's swinging through the Sub igniting storms and precip galore.  If you believe the CFSv2, it's advertising abundant moisture for the CONUS.

 

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summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202109.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202109.gif

 

When will the seasons 1st Frosts arrive??  I think it is possible that post 8th someone over the N GL's region and Northwoods could see patchy frost.  Let's see what this month has in store as I'm sure it'll be quite interesting.

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Count me in for being ready for cooler weather and drier air. Sept can be exciting as we move back into severe weather season and peak hurricane season. Mid month should bring a taste of both as a fall like cold front pushes through the sub and another hurricane develops around the Yucatan and targets Louisiana coast again.

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17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Count me in for being ready for cooler weather and drier air. Sept can be exciting as we move back into severe weather season and peak hurricane season. Mid month should bring a taste of both as a fall like cold front pushes through the sub and another hurricane develops around the Yucatan and targets Louisiana coast again.

Totally agree with you that we ain’t done with US hits and probably a pretty strong CF mid month.  I think it’s gonna get a bit wild!

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Dreaming of LOW DP's???  12z GFS right on que post 8th with what could be a couple significant CF's through mid month...this is just the 1st one followed by a stronger one towards the end of run.  While just one run, it fits the LRC and what I'm envisioning.  

gfs_Td2m_us_45.png

 

gfs_Td2m_us_49.png

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Looks really bad.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The good ol' Hudson Bay Block is trending stronger in the medium range which is "pressing" the front over the big holiday weekend farther south now.  Boy, these daytime high temps for the central Plains/MW/Upper MW look super.

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Upper 60's for the Northwoods next Sunday???  #Fall  #BonfireWx

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

The good ol' Hudson Bay Block is trending stronger in the medium range which is "pressing" the front over the big holiday weekend farther south now.  Boy, these daytime high temps for the central Plains/MW/Upper MW look super.

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Upper 60's for the Northwoods next Sunday???  #Fall  #BonfireWx

 

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Hopefully accompanied by much lower dews.  

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Ida’s going to hit the beach in about an hour just west of NOLA as a Cat 5 ( I’m hearing Cat 4 too but it’s on the line) Pressure 933mb  wave height 14-15’   Wind is 150 mph, gusts to 185 mph  

Her strengthening should be no surprise as the Gulf waters are so warm.  87-88*.  They’re talking echoes of Katrina and hopefully all the lessons learned will assist in moderating this storm.  The pumps and wall were improved upon but nothing can stop the amount of rain or wind damage.  
Hoping many evac’d.

Currently in the DFW area we have wind from the NE.  Very unusual.  We usually get this with hurricanes east of us.  It’s cloudy with a few scattered showers.  Not expecting anything more from Ida. Currently 81*
95* mañana.  Our break is over. 
 

Thought I’d add that Ida ties with Laura for the 5th  in mph speed at landfall with 150 mph a Cat 4.  
An unnamed 1935 storm is 1st at at 185 mph.!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ida has her lady-like side as she’s spinning off some needed isolated rain in North Tx.  
Loads of tropical moisture out there. 
85*   dp 72 😝

Come on Fall!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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What a way to open up the month of met Autumn.  The models are all trending towards a stout blocking pattern, thus creating a much cooler looking Labor Day weekend for a lot of you back east.  If the Euro (who's been the lead model) and GFS are right, most members up north will have a string of 60's in their grids for later next week!  #AutumnIsComing

The 0z Euro is suggesting another round of heavy precip for the Northwoods members of MN/ND....remnants of tropical storm Nora in the E PAC should aid in the moisture dept... @FAR_Weather,  looking good for you bud!

 

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0z EPS temp pattern for the opening 11 days of Septembrrrrr....Hot in S Plains, but this will reverse course the following week.  Heads up @Andie @OKwx2k4

 

614043990_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(2).gif

 

 

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On this last day of August, the last run from the CFSv2 for Sept is suggesting a "horseshoe" block over N.A....one thing about this pattern that is intriguing to me is the trough over the SW and extends into the majority of the eastern CONUS.  This is a classic -EPO signal and one that would favor a wet pattern next month in those same regions.  Not surprisingly, the model is showing a robust Monsoon continuing and extending into the central CONUS.  If this pans out, I could really see the new LRC for '21-'22 setting up in Oct with very active wx.  Just some preliminary thoughts.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202109.gif

 

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20210831.202109.gif

 

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Welcome to the 1st day of met Autumn!  I was awoken to the sound of water falling off the tiled roof here in AZ as a line of showers/storms rolled on through late last night.  Picked up about .37" of nice stratiform rainfall that soaks into the ground instead of running off into the washways.  Current conditions are reminiscent of what we've dealt with last month 72F/70F...so yes, it is humid here as the monsoon continues.

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Made it to September.  NWS Hastings has dropped highs from 4-7 degrees as stratus may hang tight much of the day.  Now looking at high temps closer to 80.  Tomorrow still looking like an all day rain with temps in the 70's.  I've noticed that farmers are picking up irrigation pipe, those few that still use this instead of center pivots.  Harvest coming in a few weeks for some.

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The idea of some strong troughs/storms rolling through the Sub post 8th are beginning to show up now in the modeling.  The 12z EPS is suggesting the N Rockies get their 1st legit snows...#thinksnow

 

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Today we saw 96 with a current humidity at 7pm at 46%.
 

However,…tomorrow will be 100 and humidity at 67%.  This will continue for several days thereafter.  
 

K?  Somebody send us 1: rain and 2: freaking cooler temps.!
I know our winter may freeze your eyelashes off but it’s HOT! Right now!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I’m waking up to another warm and humid morning (74F/68F) here in the desert.  My location had one of the highest rainfall totals in the valley yesterday.  Looking forward to some drier and more typical AZ wx this weekend.

 

 

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The overnight low here was 52 (52.3) at this time it is clear and 53 (53.1) with a dew point of only 48 (47.8) There are some very cool reading in both the UP and northern lower Michigan with 40 at Cadillac and Grayling 37 at Marquette. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's were common away from the great lakes and I am sure some smaller locations got down into the low to mid 30's and would not be surprised that there was frost in some locations. 

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Already over an inch here.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Quote
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Rain continues across all but our far north central and
northeastern counties, spreading slowly northeastward. NDAWN obs
have over 2 inches in portions of Barnes, Cass, and Clay counties,
with more light rain moving in. Tried to adjust QPF for current
trends. Most of the stronger convective cells that have tried to
move into the Devils Lake Basin from further west have weakened
due to lack of instability, but some isolated thunder threat
remains for at least some of the afternoon. 

 

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Cracked 2" yesterday. I am now sitting at roughly 69% of the normal season total. A couple of weeks ago, I was at about 50%. Tucson still has more rain than Fargo this year.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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We had a 105* heat index yesterday.  
 

Somebody throw me an autumn weather bone! 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Rain is moving in this morning and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect until tomorrow afternoon. I look to be in the zone for 3 to 5 inches. @Jayhawker85looks like you got a lot of rain this morning.

Yes i have! it started raining around 11pm last night and did not stop till about 730 this morning. No flooding issues yet since we have been so dry here lately, but that may change tonight with the flood watch 

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I got a nice soaker this morning.  My total is 0.75" and there is a bit more popping up to the west.  This is on the high end of what models had been showing.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2.62" in my rain gauge this morning and it was very LOUD last night with the booming thunder...lol.  We may get more heavy rain here tonight and tomorrow morning but I expect heavier rains to be just south of me this time around.

Looking forward to the new LRC showing itself and fall weather soon!

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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