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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


The Blob

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't believe we are sitting here looking at multiple legit snow chances after what we've already had.  Wow!

Now this is how winter should be around here during a Nina! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Does anyone think the Tacoma area will get wind gusts to 50 MPH late tonight through tomorrow?  I see that a wind advisory has been issued.  It seems like strong southerly winds will encourage fairly rapid snow melt. 

Almost makes me want to take a trip down to the coast….King Tides and winds! 

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I tell you guys...tomorrow night almost looks like what happened in Portland a few days before the main cold wave.  Heavy precip intensity with 925s of about zero and they got snow.  Even the ECMWF is showing just as good of numbers for the Central Puget Sound area tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty silly how cold the GFS gets the surface tomorrow night. At least it isn’t showing all that snow with surface temps around 35-36 like it was earlier this Winter but there is no chance it is 27 and snowing in Everett that night.

 

77F7AC0E-0D58-4592-BC55-3593655EFAE8.png

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I'm really surprised the NWS issued a wind advisory for Seattle southward.  This gradient angle never pulls that off.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty silly how cold the GFS gets the surface tomorrow night. At least it isn’t showing all that snow with surface temps around 35-36 like it was earlier this Winter but there is no chance it is 27 and snowing in Everett that night.

 

77F7AC0E-0D58-4592-BC55-3593655EFAE8.png

I think the elephant in the room though is it's not backing down at all.  Why is it so outlandish that outflow from the passes would bring lowland snow with such high precip rates?  It is very cold in Central WA right now.  We'll see what the ECMWF looks like, but I think there is something to this.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I can’t even recall how many runs it’s been now but the GFS has been quite insistent for tomorrow. Because this is now turning quite marginal it’s going to come out either on top or a massive bust for the model. Just crazy how consistent it’s been. I’ve actually been quite impress how good it’s been. Guess we’ll have to see. 

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BTW...Regardless of what happens tomorrow night, Monday night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday nights all have legit snow threats with a new cold air mass sweeping in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I can’t even recall how many runs it’s been now but the GFS has been quite insistent for tomorrow. Because this is now turning quite marginal it’s going to come out either on top or a massive bust for the model. Just crazy how consistent it’s been. I’ve actually been quite impress how good it’s been. Guess we’ll have to see. 

The ECMWF has been very slowly giving in to the GFS as well.  The 18z run was much more impressive with the easterly component to the surface winds.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The rest of this next week looks insane for Seattle north and up to Vancouver. The setup is amazing with cold outflow with a moist overrunning system-- wonder if we'll be lucky enough sometime to get an AR pointed down south during a period of cold outflow.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the elephant in the room though is it's not backing down at all.  Why is it so outlandish that outflow from the passes would bring lowland snow with such high precip rates?  It is very cold in Central WA right now.  We'll see what the ECMWF looks like, but I think there is something to this.

I don’t think snow is outlandish at all. But 27 degrees in Everett is.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The center of high pressure shifted from the Fraser Plateau to the Columbia Plateau, so the cold outflow winds are now going through the Cascade gaps instead of out the Fraser River. Pretty cool shift in the set-up, causing Bellingham to be warmer than Seattle for the first time in about a week. 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the elephant in the room though is it's not backing down at all.  Why is it so outlandish that outflow from the passes would bring lowland snow with such high precip rates?  It is very cold in Central WA right now.  We'll see what the ECMWF looks like, but I think there is something to this.

Over the years I've saw crazy shitt happen when we have arctic air ao close to play with. It's almost like magic.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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One thing for sure...if this run is right we are going to have snow on the ground for a long time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I can’t even recall how many runs it’s been now but the GFS has been quite insistent for tomorrow. Because this is now turning quite marginal it’s going to come out either on top or a massive bust for the model. Just crazy how consistent it’s been. I’ve actually been quite impress how good it’s been. Guess we’ll have to see. 

Imagine working at NWS right now.

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I don’t think snow is outlandish at all. But 27 degrees in Everett is.

That I would agree with.  Would love to be wrong though.  At any rate this month looks full of potential.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Over the years I've saw crazy shitt happen when we have arctic air ao close to play with. It's almost like magic.  

This is exactly why im worried the models are scouring cold air out way too fast. I mean, we've seen its possible.. we all went from like 18 to 34 super easy the other day, but i dunno. I have a weird feeling about this one. 

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The GFS was the first to pick up on King County being so cold tonight compared to many places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently 27.7 here.  North Bend is 29 with brisk east winds now.  Stay tuned!

This is one of those times I like being in the east wind area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Very nice long range Columbia Basin cold pool / fake cold on this run. Long stretch of east winds especially for Portland metro.

I like how this is unfolding.  Far from business as usual.  Even this warmup is anemic.  That just isn't the way it usually happens here.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Currently 27.7 here.  North Bend is 29 with brisk east winds now.  Stay tuned!

This is one of those times I like being in the east wind area.

NWS has a low of 33 in North Bend tonight…makes no sense. Also says SE winds tomorrow even though models are showing ESE. That will make a big difference with this set up. 

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Very nice long range Columbia Basin cold pool / fake cold on this run. Long stretch of east winds especially for Portland metro.

What I like is the little trough that comes in Friday/Saturday before the ridging builds in, those setups usually kick it off a little chillier than if some monster west coast ridge builds overhead. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

NWS has a low of 33 in North Bend tonight…makes no sense. Also says SE winds tomorrow even though models are showing ESE. That will make a big difference with this set up. 

NWS does not make a forecast for NB... its automated.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Currently 27.7 here.  North Bend is 29 with brisk east winds now.  Stay tuned!

This is one of those times I like being in the east wind area.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Enumclaw also an East Wind area?  I am looking forward to some surprising snowfall this next 2 days.

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26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why is it so outlandish that outflow from the passes would bring lowland snow with such high precip rates?  It is very cold in Central WA right now.  We'll see what the ECMWF looks like, but I think there is something to this.

When is the last time there was a similar setup to this that ended in a significant snowfall though? Not typical for sure.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What I like is the little trough that comes in Friday/Saturday before the ridging builds in, those setups usually kick it off a little chillier than if some monster west coast ridge builds overhead. 

Exactly what I was going to say.  Fake cold snaps that begin with a legit cold shot usually have some teeth.  From there the blocking ridge just gradually retrogrades.  Is this really January?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Very nice long range Columbia Basin cold pool / fake cold on this run. Long stretch of east winds especially for Portland metro.

After this period of rainy, stormy weather, I think some ridging will develop just offshore, similar to what the GFS is showing. We'll experience a dry stretch but eventually the ridge will retrograde up into Alaska sometime during the last week of January. End of January into early February is when I think we will get another chance of an Arctic outbreak.

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2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

When is the last time there was a similar setup to this that ended in a significant snowfall though? Not typical for sure.

Not totally sure, but it's similar to what brought snow to Portland a few days before the big time cold set in here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

After this period of rainy, stormy weather, I think some ridging will develop just offshore, similar to what the GFS is showing. We'll experience a dry stretch but eventually the ridge will retrograde up into Alaska sometime during the last week of January. End of January into early February is when I think we will get another chance of an Arctic outbreak.

In the end it might just be varying degrees of cold and types of cold before the next big one.  I'm thinking more like by Jan 20 for a big shot of cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Crazy, don't remember this. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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