TT-SEA Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 I can't get snow, but I can get frost (once so far, but probably again tonight) Got down to 32.1 with snow this morning for the coldest temp of the season. But frost will be impossible now until maybe Friday night. Hard to go until 11/20 here without a below freezing temp but that seems to be the case. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Definitely need more rain. I like 2 feet per week... only getting a foot last week hurts.[/quote acually many mountain water sheds are still low. Seen one today that was very low still. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 But I want a frost and a golden egg-laying goose NOW daddy!!! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Definitely need more rain. I like 2 feet per week... only getting a foot last week hurts.[/quote acually many mountain water sheds are still low. Seen one today that was very low still. Whatever. SEA was just about normal for the water year ending 9/30/15 and already running close to 5 inches above normal for this water year and its only 6 weeks old. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 36 with heavy rain/hail in Mill Creek right now. Was hoping the heavy rain could possibly drop the temperature, but it doesn't look like that's gonna be the case. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm at 32F and there is definitely frost now outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Oh... and the GFS plows our supposed thanksgiving cold spell under with warm and wet SW flow before it really gets going. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Oh... and the GFS plows our supposed thanksgiving cold spell under with warm and wet SW flow before it really gets going.And we should expect anything other than that? It will verify as that is about the most realistic scenario for our climate, don't ya think. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 As far as our windstorm it appears to be in play ... for now...This is from the 4:20pm AFD form the NWS.... .....THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM12 AND GFS20 SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ON THE JET THATRIDES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN INTOALBERTA ON TUESDAY. THE FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING AS ITMOVES EAST. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDSAT 925 MB OR AROUND 2000 FEET...WSW AT 60 TO 75 KT. FIRST...THE WINDWILL TRANSPORT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFICINTO THE AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIKELY RENEWEDFLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.THEN TUE MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON...EXPECT PRES GRADIENTS TO INCREASEWITH KPDX-KBLI GRADIENTS INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MB. THECONSERVATIVE MOS WIND FORECASTS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND FROM THESOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT MANY LOCATIONS AND FROM THE WEST NEAR THESTRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AFTER THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSINGWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. WINDSWILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FORALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTSACROSS THE REGION. AREA SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVYRAINFALL. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING WIND GUSTS65 TO 75 MPH. THIS COMBINATION MEANS A LARGE NUMBER OF TREES COULDBE TOPPLED AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OCCUR. IF THE WINDS OCCUR ASFORECAST...THERE MAY ALSO BE A NUMBER OF STRUCTURES THAT REPORT ROOFDAMAGE WITH WINDS THIS STRONG. ALBRECHT Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 How is the timing for that transition event looking on the 00Z?? Hopefully nobody's Black Friday plans will be affected by the impending snow to ZR mess! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 No one is posting ensembles either... Awwww... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 No one is posting ensembles either... Awwww...Trending way warmer. Back to the regularly scheduled torching. Although I guess that would be implying it ever stopped down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Pretty wild that we could hit the mid 60s on Tuesday....downright Hawaiian. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 How is the timing for that transition event looking on the 00Z?? Hopefully nobody's Black Friday plans will be affected by the impending snow to ZR mess!I will be sitting at my keyboard the same way in the rain as I would with snow. 00Z GFS has another AR event to end November. Could end up with at least 4" above normal rain if 00Z verified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Would be foolish to ride the trainwreck of the operational GFS in the 11-15 day period. I suggest auditing a course in NWP along with some anti-depressants. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Wow afd is late today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 No one is posting ensembles either... Awwww...Still 7 members dropping below -10C during week 2 for Vancouver, it could be worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Wow afd is late todayYes it is, been refreshing since 1020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Not much change in the ensembles and GEFS is not the only suite showing cool temps in the extended. I get it though, you are a serial whiner Jesse. You whine when it's hot, you whine when it's cold, you whine when its neither. It's like a case of chronic tinnitus. Market that s**t as "Jesse's Tears IPA" and move out of your in-laws house.Your petulant churlishness permeates these forums. An academic forum would kick your a** to the curb faster than you could say "Portland is the new LA" 2 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Scott sistex from komo says on twitter he thinks that max winds are 60 to 65 vs 75 and says,storm weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Scott sistex from komo says on twitter he thinks that max winds are 60 to 65 vs 75 and says,storm weaker.Sistek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 AFD is outEdit: and it's pretty D**n boring but wouldn't expect much from the night shift, will wait until the senior met's get in tomorrow am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 AFD is out Doesn't have much new info on it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Sistek?Forgive my spelling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 The ECMWF has a nice Arctic outbreak and moves up the timing from previous runs. This is very typical model behavior before a cold wave. The models take turns looking good and then looking bad. Tonight's ECMWF has a gorgeous surface high pressure complex that is nicely balanced between strong surface high off the coast and strong surface high pressure over Western Canada. The WRF backed off a full notch on the windstorm for Tuesday. To me the setup just looks wrong for big winds in the Seattle area. Some localized places could get blasted though. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Well hello 00z ECM...-10c H8 on the 25th. Probably too aggressive but nice to see the potential there. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 The ECMWF has a nice Arctic outbreak and moves up the timing from previous runs. This is very typical model behavior before a cold wave. The models take turns looking good and then looking bad. Tonight's ECMWF has a gorgeous surface high pressure complex that is nicely balanced between strong surface high off the coast and strong surface high pressure over Western Canada. The WRF backed off a full notch on the windstorm for Tuesday. To me the setup just looks wrong for big winds in the Seattle area. Some localized places could get blasted though. Sounds like the regular 40 to 50 mph storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Nice looking Euro run. I am thinking between midnight and 6am for the snow to ZR transition the weekend after next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm thinking a real risk of 32.1 degree moderate rain with a +1c 850 and 925 mb temp over the course of 12 hours with an east wind of 10-15 mph. #PortlandWintersAreAwesomeAsF*ck Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 I didn't realize Mormons were allowed to drink these days. Progress! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 I didn't realize Mormons were allowed to drink these days. Progress!I didn't know knowledge of alcoholic beverages is limited to those who consume them. Is knowledge of drunk driving limited to those who drive drunk? On the bright side you'll know I'm always dead sober when I post on here, unlike some. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 It would be nice if PDX managed to record 30s before midnight. Clearing and 36 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Not me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Jesse you live probably no more than a mile from me...I really should have invited you over for a BBQ last summer. You can bring your favorite IPA...I'm cool with that. It's true the view isn't particularly great from my location and I'm south wind sheltered, but hopefully you could look past that.Sure we have our back and forth on here, and sometimes you remind me a bit of my 3 year old kid but hey we each have our foibles. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm thinking a real risk of 32.1 degree moderate rain with a +1c 850 and 925 mb temp over the course of 12 hours with an east wind of 10-15 mph. #PortlandWintersAreAwesomeAsF*ck January 1980 redux. All snow for I-84 north. Rain at Bull Mountain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 January 1980 redux. All snow for I-84 north. Rain at Bull Mountain.Really I was just thinking of the most miserable situation I could come up with. Any colder and people would think "Oooh...ZR". Any warmer and it's just warmer rain. Any windier and weenies will get excited over an "east wind storm" Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Looks I came up with a 45-33 high / low and a trace of snow today. Solidly chilly for this time of year. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 January 1980 redux. All snow for I-84 north. Rain at Bull Mountain. I could really do with a Jan 1980 redux. Where I was living at the time did pretty well, and it appears where I live now did even better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 My question is...will the models ever be able to reliably predict Arctic outbreaks in the NW a week ahead of time or not. It seems the model improvements haven't made much difference in such cases. To this day I think the best model performance I ever saw was the GFS ensemble with the Dec 1998 event. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 My question is...will the models ever be able to reliably predict Arctic outbreaks in the NW a week ahead of time or not. It seems the model improvements haven't made much different in such cases. To this day I think the best model performance I ever saw was the GFS ensemble with the Dec 1998 event. I look at ensembles and run-to-run continuity as well as general agreement in the pattern evolution. Certainly the ensembles handle large upper level ridges better than progressive patterns or tail events like arctic outbreaks. All I'm taking away at this point is that there's gathering potential for a rather cool spell (chilly depending on your view of such things) in the distance. Really if we want to examine the ensembles we should be looking at the entire hemispheric pattern, teleconnections, state of MJO etc. As well as the stuff Phil likes to discuss. Of course if you asked some on here I just predicted the first snow at PDX down to the hour and minute tonight. Black Friday chaos! Hundred car pileup at the bottom of eastbound Sunset Hwy near the tunnel. City at a standstill for a week! 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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