November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

That's promising!

Anyway it's a sunny quiet morning here with a temp of 36 degrees. Finally got power back late last evening.

The 6Z had thickness bottom out at 528, the 12z has it closer to 521/522, for Seattle. So the airmass is looking colder on this run.  I know people went over the top yesterday with a couple epic cold runs, but really I haven't seen any reason to think this was going to be much more than a quick hitting 2-3 day cold shot for Washington and BC, maybe an inversion setting up after and remaining cold at the surface. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know the models are actually trending better for snow at my location...

[GobBluth]

We go from a long term snow/cold solution to a classic El Nino signal. Is anyone really that surprised?

[Guest Winterdog]

The 12Z GFS model generated 2m temps do not look to get out of the 20's and 30's at Seattle or PDX after Tuesday for the remainder of the run. 

[MossMan]

The 12Z GFS model generated 2m temps do not look to get out of the 20's and 30's at Seattle after Tuesday for the remainder of the run.

That sounds promising! Our area would do even better I'm sure!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How was the Canadian?

[stuffradio]

How was the Canadian?

-25C 850 temps close to the border in some spots at hour 240. Still shows a trough on Monday-Tuesday. Maybe we'll get snow up here and maybe in WA? I don't know. It's definitely the coldest in 10 days though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-25C 850 temps close to the border in some spots at hour 240. Still shows a trough on Monday-Tuesday. Maybe we'll get snow up here and maybe in WA? I don't know. It's definitely the coldest in 10 days though.

Sounds good. Must be why no one mentioned it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are meh

[Timmy]

The 12Z GFS model generated 2m temps do not look to get out of the 20's and 30's at Seattle or PDX after Tuesday for the remainder of the run. 

it does seem to lock us into some low level cold. unfortunately for the rest of the winter it is due to splitting that we don't want to see long term.

[PV=nRT]

While many of you on this forum have a good handle on the biases of the different models this is a good opportunity to track each model and after the event debrief the performance of the models in terms of how each model handled the progression of features and intensity of cold.  I noticed sometimes we move on to the next event without really having a discussion of how the models actually performed.  This would give you more insight into the future performance and biases of each of the models.....

 

Always enjoy weather out of the ordinary.  Keep your fingers crossed, it might help.

[stuffradio]

The 12Z GFS OP is very underwhelming. It looks warmer than any of last Novembers cold snaps. it has just enough precip to get me a bit over 12" of rain for the month though.

[Timmy]

12z Euro is a turd sandwich so far our to hr 144.  

[Timmy]

Still it looks like possible snow for my house tuesday night.

[Guest Winterdog]

The Euro has us back in the green 850's Wednesday morning.  It looks like Seattle bottoms out around -5 850's and warms up Wednesday.  Seattle may not even get their first freeze out of this.

[Timmy]

Euro looks like one hell of an inversion.

[MossMan]

Euro looks like one hell of an inversion.

Would be nice to lay some snow down before the inversion from hell takes over!

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is awful.

 

WAY East.

 

Looks dry though with offshore flow so it would still be chilly.

[Timmy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111912/ecmwf_T850_namer_9.png12z euro so bad it is good?  hr 192 ridge gets destroyed nearly and a large deep trough headed east towards us out of the GOA?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111912/ecmwf_T850_namer_9.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately the 12z GFS operational may be a tad bit optimistic. 

[Timmy]

Unfortunately the 12z GFS operational may be a tad bit optimistic. 

that statement may be a tad bit optimistic.

[Timmy]

Just an odd setup, still looks like we will be stuck in low level cold, at least we get a break from the rain.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111912/ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png

[WS Snow]

_{Any hope for the mountains next week?}

[Timmy]

_{Any hope for the mountains next week?}

nothing too negative, so that is good.

[TT-SEA]

Euro is awful.

 

WAY East.

 

Looks dry though with offshore flow so it would still be chilly.

 

Looking bleak.  

 

There is no real cold air to work with next week so the pattern becomes less important.

[MossMan]

Looking bleak.

 

There is no real cold air to work with next week so the pattern becomes less important.

So highs near 50 and lows in the upper 30's?

[HighlandExperience]

So highs near 50 and lows in the upper 30's?

 

More like highs in the 40s, lows in the 30s, and 20s in outlying areas. Nothing exciting, but a break from the rain for some people.

[liquidsnow]

Nothing "arctic" about this

 

I'll make a bold prediciton and say we will NOT see this snow this fall and winter.

 

Solution: Extract a huge chunk of dry ice from mars and toss it into the pacific ocean.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nothing "arctic" about this

 

I'll make a bold prediciton and say we will NOT see this snow this fall and winter.

 

Solution: Extract a huge chunk of dry ice from mars and toss it into the pacific ocean.

LOL.

[HighlandExperience]

_{Any hope for the mountains next week?}

 

12z ECMWF still shows some mountain snow next week for the Cascades.

 

At least the snowpack won't be decimated before thanksgiving. If anything this will help solidfy the base with clear cold nights coming up. I just dont want us to get into a prolonged dry splitty weather pattern.

[Phil]

If the PV aloft wasn't in such a strong, barotropic state, this upcoming wave breaking event would have led to a significant block, and a major/prolonged Arctic blast(s) in the western & central US.

 

Unfortunately, in this case, we're going right back into a Niño/+NAM pattern as we head into early/mid December.

 

#nationwideblowtorch

[WS Snow]

Scott Sistek ‏@ScottSKOMO 27m27 minutes ago

 

Is it really going to snow next week here? In a nutshell:Looks cold enough, but moisture lacking for big event. Maybe sct snow showers Tr-1"

 

**I guess something is better than nothing before the torch...

[stuffradio]

12Z high res Euro shows lows of 30-44ish next week and no snow. Hopefully it's better for you down there, because this is winter cancel here. I like winter cancel rhetoric to articulate my disapproval of the model run.

[Guest Winterdog]

This has been a monumental collapse of the models. We have, in 24 hours time, gone from having an almost unprecedented agreement of an arctic event among the GFS operational, the Euro operational and most members of the GFS ensemble to a unilateral agreement among all models that there will be no meaningful arctic air intrusion at all. I guess I'll just consider myself lucky to have had a potential event to follow. When you are a demented weather weenie it doesn't take much to make you happy sometimes.

[stuffradio]

This has been a monumental collapse of the models. We have, in 24 hours time, gone from having an almost unprecedented agreement of an arctic event among the GFS operational, the Euro operational and most members of the GFS ensemble to a unilateral agreement among all models that there will be no meaningful arctic air intrusion at all. I guess I'll just consider myself lucky to have had a potential event to follow. When you are a demented weather weenie it doesn't take much to make you happy sometimes.

Blame the Canadians.

[Deweydog]

BIGGEST BUST EVER!

 

The models go from cold to chilly in a matter of 24 hours!  Unprecedented shift.

 

Thanksgiving looks lovely, though.  Clear, crisp and emotionally crippling.  

[stuffradio]

BIGGEST BUST EVER!

 

The models go from cold to chilly in a matter of 24 hours!  Unprecedented shift.

 

Thanksgiving looks lovely, though.  Clear, crisp and emotionally crippling.  

Can't you tell how crippled I am!?

[TT-SEA]

Komo 4 is so far behind it's not even funny. Seth Wayne writes up the worst discussions in the history of the internet. He talks about how he put in mixed rain and snow for early next week, but also mentioned that some models have snow down to Sea Level in a sense that it was the most likely scenario. Sea-tac probably doesn't have a high below 42.

 

He also says tonight is going to be VERY COLD in bold lettering. On the 7 day forecast it shows tomorrow mornings low at 39 degrees.... If upper 30's in the city is cold, what do we call mid 20's? Teens? Nothing chaps my a** more than bullshit write-ups on news station websites.

 

 

I never watch local news or weather.    Drives me nuts.

[MikeInEverett]

Just realized that the last 10 days of the 12Z GFS are completely dry for my location. Beautiful day today, sunny and 45 in Mill Creek right now. Perfect.

[WS Snow]

Looks like I'll be in that all too familiar territory of telling friends (non weather followers) that "arctic air is coming" and then have them laugh at me when it falls apart again...

 

Weather weenie to my core.