PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Anyone got anything cool going on soon?

Excited for Inslee's press conference at 2:00 today? What will he do? Announce mask mandate lifted on February 29th?

Just yarn crawl at the end of the month and trying to get a push in my garden.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

New stay-at-home order through the end of 2024.   Can never be too safe.

I would pack up and move to AZ tomorrow.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why does our weather always suck?

Your area might do very well early next week. That trough has been trending south/cooler recently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Your area might do very well early next week. That trough has been trending south/cooler recently.

Would be great to get on the scoreboard for February!

[seattleweatherguy]

20 hours ago, Phil said:

They correctly noted the elephant in the room:

So you think we are done with snow for the winter Phil?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

Got a feeling this thing is coming back. God. I've already taken a long-ish break from caring about interesting weather but maybe I'll have to wait for a while longer. It's not even really torching.... It's just dry and mild, constantly. I'm honestly growing a bit antsy for some actual weather. That trough next Monday/Tuesday looks nice but it's severely intruded by that broad anticyclone which has dominated the region since early January.

What do we have to do to have, you know, winter?

People were hoping for a blocky winter.  They got it.  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Phil any thoughts on this? 

Our really good local Sierra weather guy mammothweather.com thinks end of Feb things turn stormy for us again

 

The best news coming out of the CPC discussion yesterday is that; MJO is expected to “Constructively Interfere with the La Nina Base State toward the end of February”!!

Note: This is what happened in early December.

Longer Range:

Since the latter part of January I have been bullish about a flip in the Hemispheric Pattern due to the emergence of MJO over the Indian Ocean (IO)  Nothing has changed in my thinking. Here is a possible scenario;

1. A dry warm week this week
2. A chilly inside slider around the 15th that will bring wind, cooling and maybe some light snow.
3. 3rd week of February will be the transition week with strong tropical forcing developing over the (IO) and MJO along with ERW cranking up.   Phase 2 into Phase 3. of the RMM.
4. Long wave trough to carve out over the eastern pacific between the end of the 3rd week of February and end of the month.  Then stormy WX , developing 4th week of February into March.
5. See what appears to be twin anticyclones aloft (Upper Divergence) on each side of EQ moving toward favored Phase 3 last week of the month.

 

Yeah I was mentioning that MJO a few days ago. Sounds reasonable to me.

I do think +EPO might return later this month, but it will be in tandem with the +AO/+NAM/super PV. So getting arctic air into the PNW might be next to impossible now.

I’m not sure how much of a precip gradient there will be but things will almost certainly trend in a more zonal direction as the month goes on.

[Phil]

If something “interesting” is going to happen it’ll probably be during the (annual) breakdown of this strong PV during the spring. Likely when the MJO transits the WPAC or just after if it’s a dynamic FW.

Still a chance for some serious cold somewhere this spring, even if that cold ends up east of the Rockies.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 00Z run from last night...

I’m bracing for a quick flip to torching.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 minutes ago, Chris said:

Maybe not ALWAYS.

[jakerepp]

34 minutes ago, Chris said:

I'm waiting on my AZ trip until I know what's going on with spring training.

Ugh.

[Meatyorologist]

Stumbled upon some footage of Washington state during the region's coolest summer of the last 100 years. Seems they picked one of the warmer days, maybe July 13th or 14th. Given the occasional tufts of stratus I'd say it's unlikely it was during the 96°F heatwave in early June that year.

Weather nerd-ing aside it's remarkable footage. There is a shot of Mt. Rainier during a fly by and when compared to modern day satellite, there is some glacial reduction, however nothing too shocking. All in all the region looks remarkably similar; it's quite eerie how familiar yet distant this video feels.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, jakerepp said:

Anyone got anything cool going on soon?

Excited for Inslee's press conference at 2:00 today? What will he do? Announce mask mandate lifted on February 29th?

We got a new garage door opener.

[Deweydog]

Two months ago right now it was coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Stumbled upon some footage of Washington state during the region's coolest summer of the last 100 years. Seems they picked one of the warmer days, maybe July 13th or 14th. Given the occasional tufts of stratus I'd say it's unlikely it was during the 96°F heatwave in early June that year.

Weather nerd-ing it's remarkable footage. There is a shot of Mt. Rainier during a fly by and when compared to modern day satellite, there is some glacial reduction, however nothing too shocking. All in all the region looks remarkably similar; it's quite eerie how familiar yet distant this video feels.

Reminds me of my childhood. 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Stumbled upon some footage of Washington state during the region's coolest summer of the last 100 years. Seems they picked one of the warmer days, maybe July 13th or 14th. Given the occasional tufts of stratus I'd say it's unlikely it was during the 96°F heatwave in early June that year.

Weather nerd-ing it's remarkable footage. There is a shot of Mt. Rainier during a fly by and when compared to modern day satellite, there is some glacial reduction, however nothing too shocking. All in all the region looks remarkably similar; it's quite eerie how familiar yet distant this video feels.

I love stuff like this... absolutely fascinating.   Thanks for posting! 

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Two months ago right now it was coming.

In 1955 a lot was coming

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

In 1955 a lot was coming

To include late December 2021 and January 2023.

[The Blob]

Where did the sun go?

[Thunder98]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Where did the sun go?

It took a vacation to Vegas.

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Where did the sun go?

Corvallis

[Phishy Wx]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why does our weather always suck?

It's like it's right in front of our

 

oh nevermind

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Where did the sun go?

E WA.  Gorgeous day here 48 and sunny

[Phil]

New Euro weeklies: steroidal PV/+NAO maintains a firm grip through the next 6 weeks, with no signs of any change whatsoever.

Brief period of semi-coherent -PNA later this month, but the dominant anomaly is the vortex.

[Phil]

Next 30 days on the EPS weeklies.

Sucks unless you live on the island that shall not be named.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Next 30 days on the EPS weeklies.

Sucks unless you live on the island that shall not be named.

Long range GEFS is a lot better. lol

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

New Euro weeklies: steroidal PV/+NAO maintains a firm grip through the next 6 weeks, with no signs of any change whatsoever.

Brief period of semi-coherent -PNA later this month, but the dominant anomaly is the vortex.

Forks for all.

[Phishy Wx]

She done (except for the end of month region wide blizzard)

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Long range GEFS is a lot better. lol

What about the CFS?!

Get far enough out in time and the blend of solutions will usually start to look like the ENSO/low frequency state as intraseasonal cycles get washed out in the averages. It would have more meaning if this was a winter with a neutral ENSO/weak low pass regime.

But you have to suspect there will be a -PNA episode given the coming E-IO/MC MJO transit. I cannot think of a SINGLE Niña winter where such an event failed to produce a -PNA response in Feb/Mar following -dAAMt in the tropics. It is one of the most predictable outcomes from a subseasonal forecasting standpoint.

If it fails, that would be extraordinary in my opinion, and lend credence to the idea that there is indeed a substantial change happening w/ regards to the West-Pacific Warm Pool/off-Eq NPAC convection and associated z-circulations.

And that would have major implications for western North America. Particularly the SW US. Resembles what happened there during the medieval climate anomaly (decades of megadroughts and fires, the soot from which is present in sediment cores across the continent). 

[Phishy Wx]

I hear someone outside with a weed wacker.  it's definitely over

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The official snowfall total for Leavenworth in January was 72.4 inches.   More than my house as the numbers come from the fish hatchery, where they get more snow than most parts of town. 

117 inches so far for the winter and probably about 107 of those fell between the 11th of December and the 6th of January. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

What about the CFS?!

Get far enough out in time and the blend of solutions will usually start to look like the ENSO/low frequency state as intraseasonal cycles get washed out in the averages. It would have more meaning if this was a winter with a neutral ENSO/weak low pass regime.

But you have to suspect there will be a -PNA episode given the coming E-IO/MC MJO transit. I cannot think of a SINGLE Niña winter where such an event failed to produce a -PNA response in Feb/Mar following -dAAMt in the tropics. It is one of the most predictable outcomes from a subseasonal forecasting standpoint.

If it fails, that would be extraordinary in my opinion, and lend credence to the idea that there is indeed a substantial change happening w/ regards to the West-Pacific Warm Pool/off-Eq NPAC convection and associated z-circulations.

And that would have major implications for western North America. Particularly the SW US. Resembles what happened there during the medieval climate anomaly (decades of megadroughts and fires, the soot from which is present in sediment cores across the continent). 

You’ve gone from predicting a little ice age to a medieval megadrought redux in just over five years pretty impressive swing 

[Phishy Wx]

Phil could post its going to snow for the next year straight and still get downvoted on here by a lot of folks.  why?

 

sorry Phil I don't get it buddy.  been lurking for years before joining so I've always seen it as odd

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The official snowfall total for Leavenworth in January was 72.4 inches.   More than my house as the numbers come from the fish hatchery, where they get more snow than most parts of town. 

117 inches so far for the winter and probably about 107 of those fell between the 11th of December and the 6th of January. 

Crazy. Spokane has had 30.7".  most of it in Dec.  unless things change it will finish around 60% of normal.  Definitely the worst winter since i've been here

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah I was mentioning that MJO a few days ago. Sounds reasonable to me.

I do think +EPO might return later this month, but it will be in tandem with the +AO/+NAM/super PV. So getting arctic air into the PNW might be next to impossible now.

I’m not sure how much of a precip gradient there will be but things will almost certainly trend in a more zonal direction as the month goes on.

Gonna have to see it to believe it. This has already happened a couple times, clown range ensembles show a return to NW flow only for it to turn into a front followed by another week of dryness.

I want NW flow, it produces phenomenal skiing especially now, but hard to be optimistic when the driest possible outcome verifies every phucking time.

[AlTahoe]

Broke the record already and might beat it by 10 or more days! Incredible how bad this winter has turned. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Phil could post its going to snow for the next year straight and still get downvoted on here by a lot of folks.  why?

 

sorry Phil I don't get it buddy.  been lurking for years before joining so I've always seen it as odd

If you had been a part of this place since the beginning you would get it. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You’ve gone from predicting a little ice age to a medieval megadrought redux in just over five years pretty impressive swing 

Slightly tongue-in-cheek, but I did say I expected that interdecadal cycle to reach peak amplitude in 2016, and the planet actually hasn’t warmed since then. Super niño starting point, but still.

Though it honestly would not surprise me to see another temporary retreat from the long term post-LIA warming, similar to the 1940s-70s. In fact that would be par for the course. Climate change is bumpy, with several steps forwards and backwards, often on scales difficult for humans to comprehend given our exceptionally short lifetimes.

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Broke the record already and might beat it by 10 or more days! Incredible how bad this winter has turned. 

 

Data only back to 1971? Would be helpful to have a longer period of record.

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Data only back to 1971? Would be helpful to have a longer period of record.

SF has records back to the 1950's for winter dry streaks and it matches the Sierra years pretty closely. 2014-2015 holds the record for SF at 57 days. Could very well get broken this year as well. 

Sierra streaks are shorter cause we usually get a slider or two from the Great Basin 

https://ggweather.com/enso/winter_dry_spells.htm