PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Phil]

For instance, here’s the running 50yr average *trend* in global temperatures on HADCRUT4.

There are a number of expressed resonances in systemic heat flow(s), and we may be due for a multidecadal slowdown or temporary reversal soon.

[seattleweatherguy]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

What about the CFS?!

Get far enough out in time and the blend of solutions will usually start to look like the ENSO/low frequency state as intraseasonal cycles get washed out in the averages. It would have more meaning if this was a winter with a neutral ENSO/weak low pass regime.

But you have to suspect there will be a -PNA episode given the coming E-IO/MC MJO transit. I cannot think of a SINGLE Niña winter where such an event failed to produce a -PNA response in Feb/Mar following -dAAMt in the tropics. It is one of the most predictable outcomes from a subseasonal forecasting standpoint.

If it fails, that would be extraordinary in my opinion, and lend credence to the idea that there is indeed a substantial change happening w/ regards to the West-Pacific Warm Pool/off-Eq NPAC convection and associated z-circulations.

And that would have major implications for western North America. Particularly the SW US. Resembles what happened there during the medieval climate anomaly (decades of megadroughts and fires, the soot from which is present in sediment cores across the continent). 

Man sounds like its over. But I started following Phil on twitter maybe that will change our luck!

[Phil]

Arctic warming seems to have leveled off over the last decade, as well.

Time will tell.  

[Cloud]

Ugly. Poo January, Poo February. But we all know this will flip for March and April, but by that time, winter's already done. Just deal with drip drip drip coolish weather into June. Tim's favorite kind!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

19 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Ugly. Poo January, Poo February. But we all know this will flip for March and April, but by that time, winter's already done. Just deal with drip drip drip coolish weather into June. Tim's favorite kind!

I don’t know it will flip to wet. In fact, I’m convinced it won’t. 

[Omegaraptor]

89 in Vacaville, CA today. Pretty surreal for February 9. That is a typical June day there. 86 at Oroville shatters the previous monthly record of 82 set in 2018.

61 in Corvallis and sunny. 79 in Brookings.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I don’t know it will flip to wet. In fact, I’m convinced it won’t. 

I’m starting to agree. Never ending nightmare. 

[Thunder98]

lmao!  

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Ugly. Poo January, Poo February. But we all know this will flip for March and April, but by that time, winter's already done. Just deal with drip drip drip coolish weather into June. Tim's favorite kind!

If only we could get that lucky haven’t had a cool and wet spring in years 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Hit 67 in The Dalles today they were 70 on December 1st probably one of the shortest seasons without 65+ highs on record there 

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

89 in Vacaville, CA today. Pretty surreal for February 9. That is a typical June day there. 86 at Oroville shatters the previous monthly record of 82 set in 2018.

61 in Corvallis and sunny. 79 in Brookings.

It was a gorgeous day here in Palm Springs.    Absolutely perfect weather.   

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

lmao!  

 

I see an Oswego lake effect bullseye.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

I see an Oswego lake effect bullseye.

Haha. If by bullseye you mean donut hole, you would be right. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

56/34 day here low clouds burned off by 2pm four more days of this February heat wave to go we will probably hit 60 at some point.

[The Swamp]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a gorgeous day here in Palm Springs.    Absolutely perfect weather.   

I would like to visit there some day and I think it's great that you have been to Hawaii and Palm Springs recently.  Some people get to take trips like those once in a lifetime.  Good job bro.

 

No super bowl snow this year.  Kinda sad.  Love FebRUARY SNOW.

[awright-31]

02-08-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 52* at 1:01 pm
Low temp - 33* at 12:15 am

New precip - 0"
February precip to date- 0.23"
We have recieved 4% of our normal February precip 29% of the way through the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 Snow to Date - 10.9"

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

I would like to visit there some day and I think it's great that you have been to Hawaii and Palm Springs recently.  Some people get to take trips like those once in a lifetime.  Good job bro.

 

No super bowl snow this year.  Kinda sad.  Love FebRUARY SNOW.

Yeah... SB Sunday has been crazy good lately.   It's so late this year which is probably normal now with the 17 game schedule.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a gorgeous day here in Palm Springs.    Absolutely perfect weather.   

Are you going to hit up all the clubs?

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Haha. If by bullseye you mean donut hole, you would be right. 

I think he meant Oswego, NY.

Phil is an Easterner and the closest he's ever been to Oregon is Stampede Pass.

[Deweydog]

Weren’t we just taking yesterday about how we routinely get PUMMELED by wind-driven snow in March?

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think he meant Oswego, NY.

Phil is an Easterner and the closest he's ever been to Oregon is Stampede Pass.

I did, but I figured I’d get his attention.

[Blizzard777]

10 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Stumbled upon some footage of Washington state during the region's coolest summer of the last 100 years. Seems they picked one of the warmer days, maybe July 13th or 14th. Given the occasional tufts of stratus I'd say it's unlikely it was during the 96°F heatwave in early June that year.

Weather nerd-ing aside it's remarkable footage. There is a shot of Mt. Rainier during a fly by and when compared to modern day satellite, there is some glacial reduction, however nothing too shocking. All in all the region looks remarkably similar; it's quite eerie how familiar yet distant this video feels.

I wasn’t even invented yet…..weird! 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

I did, but I figured I’d get his attention.

Ah, I was wondering about that. I know you’re in the DC area. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Deweydog]

What’s everybody doing?

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everybody doing?

watching the Olympics

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everybody doing?

Multivariable calc homework

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everybody doing?

Watching college basketball.

Currently 43F.

[SouthHillFrosty]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everybody doing?

Just ordered wifi for new new house. Buying a house @ 22 is scary cause I got no idea wtf I just got myself into

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Watching college basketball.

Currently 43F.

U see the Ohio State Rutgers game? Ohio State chocked 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just ordered wifi for new new house. Buying a house @ 22 is scary cause I got no idea wtf I just got myself into

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just ordered wifi for new new house. Buying a house @ 22 is scary cause I got no idea wtf I just got myself into

Always good to be in the real estate market as early as possible. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just ordered wifi for new new house. Buying a house @ 22 is scary cause I got no idea wtf I just got myself into

Scary but SMART!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everybody doing?

Crying myself to sleep looking at the models

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Always good to be in the real estate market as early as possible. 

 

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Scary but SMART!

I’m down to hold a forum meet up at my house this spring!!!! 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

I’m down to hold a forum meet up at my house this spring!!!! 

I’ll bring room temp White Claws!!!

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just ordered wifi for new new house. Buying a house @ 22 is scary cause I got no idea wtf I just got myself into

bought my first home on the east coast at 23.  that was 24 years ago.  think I paid $103K for it  lol.  lived in it for 2 years and got transferred with my job from SC to NH and it became an investment property.  still own it.  thought about selling it when we moved to the west coast (CA) 10 years ago. But decided to keep it and a house lived in in TN for 3 years.  Now own 4 properties in 3 states.  (WA, TN, 2 in SC, one of the properties in SC is a Vacation condo on the coast) and have owned property in 6 states. SC, NH, TN, GA, CA and WA.  It's never too early to get in the real estate game.  You'll do fine.  cheers

[FroYoBro]

LoLakers.

[MossMan]

38 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Scary but SMART!

I’m working on possibly buying a tractor…Scary and not smart since they are now nearly the price of a new car…But it will be quite the back saver! 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Multivariable calc homework

Fun stuff, isn’t it?