MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Puget Sound looks good for some decent CZ/frontal stuff. You guys deserve it. That is the nicest thing you have ever said to us! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I believe I will end up with about 1 to 3 inches of snow with the initial push this weekend. Would love more but I will take it.We better go into this with snow on the ground. Remember how painful feb 2014 felt with bone chilling temps and zero snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The snow on the GFS beyond day 10 is... hard to comprehend how much. There is high confidence the block sets up remaining for a long persistence..... so these possibilities we see beyond day 10 I would say are higher than normal due to stable pattern upstream. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 We better go into this with snow on the ground. Remember how painful feb 2014 felt with bone chilling temps and zero snowfall.I don't remember Feb. 2014 at all...kind of like Dec. 2009...not memorable at all without snow. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 We better go into this with snow on the ground. Remember how painful feb 2014 felt with bone chilling temps and zero snowfall.I believe we will avoid that this time, but I honestly feel if that happened again we would have a lot of pissed off people here. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I don't remember Feb. 2014 at all...kind of like Dec. 2009...not memorable at all without snow.Ya same! There was nothing about either of those. I have a feeling this upcoming event has the potential to be as memorable as 2008 for us. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I believe we will avoid that this time, but I honestly feel if that happened again we would have a lot of pissed off people here.The track of that low looks pretty good for the puget sound to get a couple inches. Looks dry for myself. Unless I see some outflow enhancement, I expect to likely go into this snowless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Why is it that a certain two members fall quiet when their holy grail model caves?? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 My dream is to see a repeat of Jan 13, 1950. Lows that experience cyclogenesis over land are my favorite. Unfortunately, they aren't common in our region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 My dream is to see a repeat of Jan 13 1950. Lows that experience cyclogenesis over land are my favorite. Unfortunately, they aren't common in our region. Long range models have been toying with a similar pattern to the one that produced that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Want more good news? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Want more good news?You're pregnant? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Want more good news? You just saved a bunch of money by switching to Geico? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You're pregnant?Shockingly, no You just saved a bunch of money by switching to Geico? I'm more of a progressive Flo fan... Okay, so 12z GEFS Surface Temp anomaly through day 8 incredibly cold, much colder than any other run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Long range models have been toying with a similar pattern to the one that produced that.In late Dec 2010 we had a low bomb out over the Spokane-CdA area. It changed from rain to snow in the morning and dropped a healthy 11 inches by nightfall, where I lived at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You're pregnant?I don't know why but I laughed the hardest at that than I have at any post in awhile. It caught me off guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I don't know why but I laughed the hardest at that than I have at any post in awhile. It caught me off guard.Always be prepared if Dewey is lurking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Why is it that a certain two members fall quiet when their holy grail model caves?? Maybe because we have jobs... I am thrilled by the GFS...The GEM looks amazing too. Can't wait to check out the WRF! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Andrew doesn't seem to have much to say about my location?Not as fun for some when everyone looks to score. Although for me that is the best time. Nothing like the whole region/forum hitting paydirt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I just woke up and saw all the post about the 12z GFS and GEM. Thank you to everybody, it makes it easier to just look at all the posts and see what the models look like right away. The 12z UKMET continues to look good. Right now I'm cautiously optimistic, knowing while the models look good we are still a long ways away. I'm hoping we get a solid 12z EURO run. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gifhttp://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I don't know why but I laughed the hardest at that than I have at any post in awhile. It caught me off guard.I think I am becoming deweys biggest fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not as fun for some when everyone looks to score. Although for me that is the best time. Nothing like the whole region/forum hitting paydirt.Most people's paydirt is only paydirt if the paydirt appears likely to be covered with snow. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Most people's paydirt is only paydirt if the paydirt appears likely to be covered with snow.When can I plant my peas? Jesse wants to know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I love it if EUG or SLE score even if I don't. Salem actually did quite a bit better than me on the 14th, I thought that was cool because a big snowstorm like that is unusual there. I have been rooting against PDX since January 1998. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Why is it that a certain two members fall quiet when their holy grail model caves??Job, newborn, spent too much time on weather yesterday. Part of me actually wants this thing to fail just so I can be right now. But I'm glad the gfs gave a little and hope it continues to do so. I was never rooting for the gfs, it just made me less optimistic. I'm done responding to people about this "issue" because some people can't understand that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 This looks like it could be a good event. I hope valley locations can score something at onset. It's going to be tough, but the 12z shows there is a chance. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I would love to see this overachieve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not as fun for some when everyone looks to score. Although for me that is the best time. Nothing like the whole region/forum hitting paydirt. jealous much? I love it, but I feel less need to post and raw raw raw when everyone is doing it. I engage in discussion more when it isn't so one-sided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 ❄ ❄ Happy Holidays ❄ ❄ 12z GEFS Surface Temp anomaly HR 132-240 Coldest yet by far. Look for 850mb Ensembles to improve in the 5-10 day range. Animated Gif - http://imgur.com/dZaaz0J Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 WRF shows a rain to snow transition on Sunday morning. Maybe a quick inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Job, newborn, spent too much time on weather yesterday. Part of me actually wants this thing to fail just so I can be right now. But I'm glad the gfs gave a little and hope it continues to do so. I was never rooting for the gfs, it just made me less optimistic. I'm done responding to people about this "issue" because some people can't understand that. Yeah no need to defend yourself. I never even said this was going to fail, just said we shouldn't discount models because we don't like them. People are so defensive because deep down they are worried it will bust. The good news is things look on track for at least some cold weather. And could be decent snow above 1000'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z WRF10 PM SundayHere she comes! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016122812/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Interesting snippet from NWS Seattle morning AFD: And that is where the headaches begin. ECMWF and GFSfall out of lockstep for Saturday and Sunday...which given theincoming colder air and the precip associated with the incomingsystem...results in a fair number of possibilities for the New YearsEve/Day timeframe. ECMWF is more progressive and colder with thesystem...but overall less precip while the GFS has more precip...isslower and slightly less cold. Given trends in bothmodels...currently more inclined to lean toward the GFSsolution...which would start the event as rain on New Years Eve thenchanging over to snow during the early morning of New Years Day.This sort of timing actually takes the edge off of the greaterprecip amounts of the GFS...placing the bulk of precip more duringthe rain phase...but should rain end up being too much toofast...that could actually help the chances for transition to snowearlier. If that sounds like hedging or indecisiveness...welcome tothe fun of trying to forecast snow. As touched on briefly beforelaying out the scenarios...inclined to lean toward GFS due to itsmore consistent progs. But even with GFS`s own difficulty in guidingin regards to transition times...as it seems to be an hour or twooff using the previous instance as a mental milepost...inclined toside with later timings. Definitely too early to suggestamounts...but current thinking is to pare back a little bit oninherited forecast...bringing lowland snow amounts more in the 1 to1.5 inch range. Will make final decision on that with 12z run.I can tell this was made before 12z because Sat-Sun both models are now in agreement literally mirroring each other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 12z WRF10 PM SundayHere she comes! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016122812/images_d2/slp.114.0000.gif Confidence is starting to grow that Monday will be a solidly cold day... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 48hr snow totals from 12z WRF aren't too shabby. 2-4 inches for EPSL. I'll take it. Also grabbed the map for 1AM Sunday. Nice CZ look. If we can get a CZ going, those can be extremely unpredictable. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016122812/images_d2/ww_snow48.120.0000.gif http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016122812/images_d2/ww_snow3.93.0000.gifI am ok with that map! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Confidence is starting to grow that Monday will be a solidly cold day... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I can tell this was made before 12z because Sat-Sun both models are now in agreement literally mirroring each otherThe forecaster even mentioned that... Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Seattle WA930 AM PST Wed Dec 28 2016 .LONG TERM...And that is where the headaches begin. ECMWF and GFSfall out of lockstep for Saturday and Sunday...which given theincoming colder air and the precip associated with the incomingsystem...results in a fair number of possibilities for the New YearsEve/Day timeframe. ECMWF is more progressive and colder with thesystem...but overall less precip while the GFS has more precip...isslower and slightly less cold. Given trends in bothmodels...currently more inclined to lean toward the GFSsolution...which would start the event as rain on New Years Eve thenchanging over to snow during the early morning of New Years Day.This sort of timing actually takes the edge off of the greaterprecip amounts of the GFS...placing the bulk of precip more duringthe rain phase...but should rain end up being too much toofast...that could actually help the chances for transition to snowearlier. If that sounds like hedging or indecisiveness...welcome tothe fun of trying to forecast snow. As touched on briefly beforelaying out the scenarios...inclined to lean toward GFS due to itsmore consistent progs. But even with GFS`s own difficulty in guidingin regards to transition times...as it seems to be an hour or twooff using the previous instance as a mental milepost...inclined toside with later timings. Definitely too early to suggestamounts...but current thinking is to pare back a little bit oninherited forecast...bringing lowland snow amounts more in the 1 to1.5 inch range. Will make final decision on that with 12z run. Behind all of that hullabaloo...models re-align for cold and dryconditions over W WA...with sub-freezing afternoon highs for thefirst half of next week. SMR Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Confidence is starting to grow that Monday will be a solidly cold day... Could even see a freeze if things break just right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Big time ensemble improvement. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 ❄ ❄ Happy Holidays ❄ ❄12z GFS 850mb EnsemblesPortland, Seattle, Yakima, Vancouver BC DRAMATIC improvement! WOWMean temps: PDX -11c, Seattle -13c, Yakima -17c, Vancouver BC -13cThis is quickly turning into a prolonged, significant blast and cold snap! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.