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July Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1351
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:01 AM

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Really nice to see the 12z Euro turn troughy in the longer range. Cools us off by Tuesday too. Can’t get much better than that!!

#1352
High Desert Mat!

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:01 AM

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Yeah, legit trough days 8-9.


Only 8 days away!! It'll get watered down.

#1353
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:24 AM

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Definitely looks different than the others so far. But will the second half of July ruin it?
I wrote a post back in April/May on winters with descending westerly shear (mixed QBO) and weak ENSO. They tended to be pretty warm across the country. Especially on the central/eastern states. So (for now) that’s the direction I’m leaning.
The low solar and/or a potential niño (which I don’t expect right now) could change that equation. Next winter would also be favored for an early-season PV-weakening event, statistically speaking.

also giving the fact we had 2 or 3 warm ones mostly country wide the 3rd ones tend to be the last in the series I could see this being another differcult year to forecast as there may be a lot of mix signals and a real wild card is the solar.2019-2020 is pretty simple El Nino with solar minimum with a likey East Qbo in place favers a big East coast winter the last few solar minimum years have seem to work out like that.

#1354
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:29 AM

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Last 96 of July today?


Seems unlikely. I’m thinking another hot spell toward the end of the month. Probably with a higher peak than the current one.

#1355
Deweydog

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:32 AM

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Seems unlikely. I’m thinking another hot spell toward the end of the month. Probably with a higher peak than the current one.


Somebody's doin' the Dew!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1356
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:34 AM

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Somebody's doin' the Dew!!!


Feels like a logical progression. Especially if we actually manage to get a ULL in here late next week.

#1357
Front Ranger

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:43 AM

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Feels like a logical progression. Especially if we actually manage to get a ULL in here late next week.


It will cool down and then warm up again? Sounds familiar...

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1358
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Really nice to see the 12z Euro turn troughy in the longer range. Cools us off by Tuesday too. Can’t get much better than that!!

 

ECMWF has highs in the 70s even down there on days 7 and 8 (79 on both days)... but warms up again fast on day 9 (87).



#1359
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:44 AM

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It will cool down and then warm up again? Sounds familiar...


We can make anything sound half-witted here if we try!
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#1360
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:46 AM

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ECMWF has highs in the 70s even down there on days 7 and 8... but warms up again fast on day 9.


What does it do with temps days 1-5?

#1361
Front Ranger

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

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We can make anything sound half-witted here if we try!


We can also make anything sound logical.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1362
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

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What does it do with temps days 1-5?

 

KPDX_2018071212_ecmwf_min_max_10.png


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#1363
Deweydog

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:52 AM

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Feels like a logical progression. Especially if we actually manage to get a ULL in here late next week.


Just don't articulate it using the words warm up, cool down followed by warm up.

Although I don't think the warm up will necessarily be warmer. As I said a while ago, this summer doesn't feel right for ant truly extreme heat.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1364
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:54 AM

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KPDX_2018071212_ecmwf_min_max_10.png


I would have expected cooler Tuesday-Wednesday judging by the maps.

#1365
MossMan

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:54 AM

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My kid and dog are extremely sad that it’s not 56 and raining.

Attached Files



#1366
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:59 AM

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West Central Valley up into the mid 90s. 95 here, 94 in Corvallis. 95 in west Yamhill County.
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Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1367
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:05 PM

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81 seems way too cool for down here.

 

It's almost 90 just south of Portland on that map. The 81 is up in elevation a bit. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1368
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:28 PM

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West Central Valley up into the mid 90s. 95 here, 94 in Corvallis. 95 in west Yamhill County.


Toasty!

#1369
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 12:42 PM

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Getting toasty out there. 87 at work in Bothell.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1370
Deweydog

Posted 12 July 2018 - 01:09 PM

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One down, six to go!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1371
Front Ranger

Posted 12 July 2018 - 01:20 PM

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My kid and dog are extremely sad that it’s not 56 and raining.

 

Hard to tell...their backs are to the camera, can't see facial expressions.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1372
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 01:28 PM

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My kid and dog are extremely sad that it’s not 56 and raining.

 

Walked outside just now. Wouldn't mind a lake like that right now. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1373
Deweydog

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:05 PM

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18z looks hot for today.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1374
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:07 PM

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SLE is going to hit 100 today.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1375
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:12 PM

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The fleece vest was a bad call today...


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1376
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Looks like we have hit the century mark for the first time this summer.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1377
Front Ranger

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:19 PM

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SLE is going to hit 100 today.

 

Looks like SEA might nab their first 90, after hitting 88 three times already.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1378
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:21 PM

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At 89 at work. Little cooler at home right now with 87.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1379
MossMan

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:26 PM

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83 with a nice north breeze here at the lake...perrrrfection!
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#1380
Phil

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:27 PM

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West Central Valley up into the mid 90s. 95 here, 94 in Corvallis. 95 in west Yamhill County.


Miserable.

Summer should be banned.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1381
MossMan

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:32 PM

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Miserable.

Summer should be banned.

Noooo!!!
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#1382
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:35 PM

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Miserable.

Summer should be banned.

 

At least it cools off quick here once the sun hits the horizon, unlike other areas of the country in the summer. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1383
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:40 PM

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I normally ignore the 18Z GFS... but wanted to see if the GFS finally picked up on the trough for late next week.    It did.

 

Phil gets his way as usual!    I don't mind the trough at all and would even cheer for some rain... but I also wanted it to be ridiculously hot for Phil.  Maybe it will be hot when he comes back later in the month.   B)


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#1384
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:42 PM

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I normally ignore the 18Z GFS... but wanted to see if the GFS finally picked up on the trough for late next week. It did.

Phil gets his way as usual! I don't mind the trough at all and would even cheer for some rain... but I also wanted it to be ridiculously hot for Phil. Maybe it will be hot when he comes back later in the month. B)


If Phil's July to January comparison is to be believed then a troughy late July is a good thing for us.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1385
puyallupjon

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:45 PM

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I normally ignore the 18Z GFS... but wanted to see if the GFS finally picked up on the trough for late next week. It did.

Phil gets his way as usual! I don't mind the trough at all and would even cheer for some rain... but I also wanted it to be ridiculously hot for Phil. Maybe it will be hot when he comes back later in the month. B)


Because the models won't change again on the next run, right?

#1386
Phil

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:45 PM

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I normally ignore the 18Z GFS... but wanted to see if the GFS finally picked up on the trough for late next week. It did.

Phil gets his way as usual! I don't mind the trough at all and would even cheer for some rain... but I also wanted it to be ridiculously hot for Phil. Maybe it will be hot when he comes back later in the month. B)


Screw you. :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1387
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:50 PM

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Because the models won't change again on the next run, right?

 

All of the models are trending that way now... and it makes sense.  

 

The EPS has been consistent for several runs as well.    I am pretty sure it will be much cooler later next week... probably near normal.     



#1388
Phil

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:51 PM

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At least it cools off quick here once the sun hits the horizon, unlike other areas of the country in the summer.


Like a built in climatic insurance policy.

I remember those cool evenings last year. Felt so weird to go from 85*F at 530pm to 65*F at 930pm.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1389
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:57 PM

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98 now at SLE. Going to be so close. Today could be the hottest day of the summer.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1390
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Like a built in climatic insurance policy.

I remember those cool evenings last year. Felt so weird to go from 85*F at 530pm to 65*F at 930pm.

 

Went from 53 at 6 am to 73 by 9:30 am here. Probably come up short of 90 today at home. Wind is slightly onshore today.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1391
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 02:59 PM

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Hott.

#1392
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:00 PM

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Hott.

 

How are you holding up today?


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1393
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:01 PM

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Live look outside the weather window. 

 

That water looks GOOOOOODDDDD

 

36990028_650715964194_170847785651168870


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1394
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:03 PM

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How are you holding up today?


It actually doesn’t feel to bad out with the breeze. Would actually be sort of enjoyable if we didn’t have 2+ more months of this stuff on the way. Heat used to be more of a novelty around here.

#1395
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:04 PM

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MARK!

 

37026364_1999719036713150_23138515426727


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1396
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:05 PM

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MARK!

37026364_1999719036713150_23138515426727


Look’s like hes ignoring the Euro and GFs for later next week.

#1397
Phil

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:07 PM

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Anyone think Mark Nelsen and Heatsquall could actually be the same person?
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1398
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:13 PM

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Look’s like hes ignoring the Euro and GFs for later next week.

 

Middle of next week looked pretty hot still on the 12z GFS.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1399
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Middle of next week looked pretty hot still on the 12z GFS.


His forecast is probably to cool.

#1400
BLI snowman

Posted 12 July 2018 - 03:15 PM

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98 now at SLE. Going to be so close. Today could be the hottest day of the summer.

 

Not even close. We still have our annual August hellstorm to look forward to.